10 biggest surprises through the first month of the college football season

The 2024 college football season has already provided us with plenty of surprises, both good and bad.

As September turned to October, I wanted to take a look back at some of the expectations I had in this new era of the sport and figure out what surprised me the most. So, I ranked the biggest surprises this season, but with a bit of a twist. I ranked the top five “good” surprises and top five “bad” surprises through the first month of the regular season.

Let’s take a look at which teams and players have surprised us the most this season!

Five good surprises

5. The unexpected undefeateds

Indiana, Rutgers, Duke and BYU are undefeated through the first five weeks of the season. Each of them has a great story behind their undefeated start. Curt Cignetti and Manny Diaz are finding great early success in their first season at Indiana and Duke, respectively. Meanwhile, Greg Schiano (Rutgers) and Kanai Sitake (BYU) are off to a roaring start at programs they’ve been at for a while. The expectations weren’t high for any of those teams. Nobody thought Indiana or BYU would do much this season. 

Indiana might be the most surprising of the group. Its offense is third in scoring and quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been excellent. When I watched the film of Indiana’s win over Maryland, it showed that this team is committed to the run game and has a diversity of runs (zone, counter, usage of an H-back). Rourke is very aggressive, throwing for 274 yards per game with 11 touchdown passes and two interceptions. Indiana’s wide receivers can win down the field in 50/50 situations, with Rourke putting them in a good position to make grabs.

4. Clemson’s offense

Clemson didn’t do anything against Georgia in Week 1. Maybe Georgia’s just that good, although Alabama had no problem moving the ball in the first half against the Bulldogs, but Clemson has been incredible since then. Last season, Clemson had high expectations and fell woefully short. When the Tigers fell on their faces in Week 1, all sorts of alarm bells were sounded.

But since that loss, Clemson’s offense has been a pleasant surprise, getting better and better each week. We’re seeing more of a maturation with this Garrett Riley offense and Cade Klubnik. Clemson actually leads the nation in scoring since its Week 1 loss, scoring 55 points per game. 

There’s a runway for Clemson to keep playing at this level, too. This team only has one ranked opponent left on its schedule (vs. No. 22 Louisville on Nov. 2). I’d be surprised if Clemson didn’t make the ACC Championship Game and, with the way things are trending, I think I’d pick them to beat Miami (Fla.) in the conference title game as of today.

3. Colorado looks complete

We got a version of this Colorado team under Deion Sanders that we’ve never seen before in its win over UCF on Saturday, playing its most complete game defensively. 

Colorado’s defense has been better this season. Its front has been terrific and defensive coordinator Robert Livingston has been tremendous. 

The Buffaloes have been better offensively, too. We knew they were going to be good on that side of the ball. But early in the season, they used a lot of 10 personnel (four wide receivers, one running back) and it’s difficult to control the defense with that set. You can’t put them in conflict and your running game is limited to zone schemes. Nebraska beat Colorado up when the Buffs used 10 personnel in Week 2 as they neglected using a tight end.

When I put on the UCF film, Colorado did something markedly different: It was 11 personnel … a lot. This team went from using 10 personnel, which felt like 80% of the time, to employing 11 personnel for roughly 80% of the snaps I saw in its game against UCF. That did wonders for the complexity of the offense, running the ball as effectively as they ever had under Sanders.

The change in formation also benefitted Shedeur Sanders and the wide receivers. Sanders was gaining a little bit more time in the pocket, allowing players on the outside to win individual matchups. 

When Colorado ran 10 personnel against UCF, it didn’t look too great. So, if the Buffs stick to running 11 personnel and their defense is able to keep it up, Colorado can change the dynamic in the Big 12 race.

2. Tennessee is a national title contender

This is a great surprise. The more teams we have in the top tier in college football, the better it is for everyone. 

Tennessee has the No. 1 scoring offense and the No. 2 scoring defense in the country, so it’s doing it on both sides of the ball. The Vols resemble last year’s Michigan team in some ways, which is why I’m all in on this Tennessee team. Let me go back to that Michigan team for a moment. It ranked 14th in the talent composite last year. That’s a relatively low ranking for a team that won the title. But they had a deep defense and the most talented player on their composite list was their quarterback. J.J. McCarthy elevated this team above the Xs and Os. 

Well, Tennessee is 17th in this year’s talent composite, so you could make a case that it isn’t a title contender because Michigan was an anomaly last year. But the Vols’ defense is excellent, with a stellar defensive line that can help them overcome roster deficiencies. 

If you get where I’m going, you can probably guess who Tennessee’s most talented player is in the composite: Nico Iamaleava. He’s raised the level of this team so far.

1. True freshmen overachieving

We have some true freshmen who are already among the best players in the country that I’ve loved watching in person and on film. We’ve got wide receiver Ryan Williams at Alabama, quarterback Dylan Raiola at Nebraska and, maybe the best of them all, wide receiver Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State.

Each of them was a five-star recruit, yet they’re already achieving while playing for fan bases that have huge expectations. Smith has already made several ridiculous catches. He could be the best Ohio State wide receiver in recent memory, which is saying something, as several Buckeyes wide receivers have been first-round picks lately.

The same could be said about Williams. He’s practically been the Gatorade Player of the Year since he was born, and he’s done nothing but impress at 17 years old, which everyone knows by now. But we all saw his game-winning touchdown catch against Georgia, and he’s the most talented receiver recruit that Alabama has landed since Julio Jones. He’s already producing like Jones did in Tuscaloosa. 

Raiola was supposed to be Nebraska’s savior entering the season. I understand that Nebraska lost to Illinois, but he’s the reason why the Cornhuskers are in a position to compete in the Big Ten this season. He’s Nebraska’s best player, and head coach Matt Rhule has said that in multiple interviews. Raiola is way ahead of schedule already and now Nebraska’s offense might need to catch up to him. 

These freshmen three have been a breath of fresh air to the sport, and kudos to them!

Five bad surprises

5. Oklahoma State’s inability to run the football

What happened here? This is not what we expected. Ollie Gordon II is only averaging 67 rushing yards per game this season after winning the Doak Walker Award last year, when he rushed for 124 yards per game. Oklahoma State is 114th in rushing this season. The Cowboys are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which is 105th in the country. They returned all five of their starting offensive linemen from last year and quarterback Alan Bowman. 

Oklahoma State should’ve been better, especially in this regard. This is a giant surprise to me, considering I thought the Cowboys would compete for the Big 12 title and Gordon would garner some Heisman buzz. We’ve seen Oklahoma State finish well after slow starts in the past, but this is still a surprise.

4. Michigan looking lost, especially offensively

This Michigan team is not anywhere close to the team we’ve seen over the last three years. The program wants this team to be similar to those teams, but I don’t sense that this team has a real deep understanding of who they are right now. 

Michigan looked really good in the first half of its win over Minnesota on Saturday. But it looked lost for the entirety of the Texas game, when Davis Warren was at quarterback and the team made many mistakes in the passing game. After going to Alex Orji, Michigan got up big against USC and Minnesota, but fell apart in the second half of those games due to its inability to move the ball as there was a real lack of a true passing game. 

In previous seasons, Michigan was so good at field position, turnover margin and not committing penalties. That hasn’t been the case this season, losing some of its true identity from those Big Ten title teams. This team doesn’t have that blueprint to fall on. There’s no margin for error with this group because of that. Michigan is going to be more vulnerable as the season goes along, especially if it finds itself in one-possession games. 

Michigan might argue that it knows its identity and realizes that it has a slim margin for error. That’s fine, but the Wolverines lost that identity within the wins against USC and Minnesota.

3. Kansas dropping to 1-4

I was high on Kansas entering the year. I think Lance Leipold is an outstanding coach and, prior to this year, Jalon Daniels had been as effective as any quarterback in the country when he was healthy. Kansas was really building something special over the last two years. 

All of a sudden, Kansas is 1-4 to open the season after winning nine games last year. The Jayhawks were ranked 22nd in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. They are 0-4 vs. FBS teams, losing to Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia and TCU.

While I was high on Kansas entering the year, there wasn’t a huge margin between Kansas and many other teams in the Big 12. That loss to Illinois sent Kansas on a downward spiral, blowing a fourth-quarter lead before losing to a good UNLV team and a one-score game against West Virginia. Kansas even had a 24-21 lead in the second half in its loss to TCU.

You have to wonder how much former offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s departure from Kansas to Penn State hampered the Jayhawks this year. 

2. Oklahoma‘s struggles on offense

The Sooners have been really bad offensively. I did a deep film review on Oklahoma’s loss to Tennessee last week and while you can credit the Vols’ strong defense, it was horrific schematically in that game. The protection plan and run game were all over the map. Oklahoma couldn’t target defenders in the run front. It was bad.

Now, Oklahoma is dealing with a quarterback dilemma. This team ranks 121st in the country in total offense this season, averaging fewer than 300 yards per game. This offense was supposed to take off with five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold taking the reins, but he’s been benched. The Sooners entered the year with a bunch of talented receivers, but Nic Anderson has barely played, and Jayden Gibson suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp. Even with Michael Hawkins Jr. in at quarterback, Oklahoma’s offensive struggles continued and they shouldn’t have beaten Auburn. 

1. Florida State’s fall from the top 10

You could probably guess that Florida State would be No. 1. After opening the year ranked 10th in the AP Poll, Florida State has been nowhere to be found. The Seminoles just got housed against SMU, who isn’t taking a dime to be in the ACC, to fall to 1-4 on the season. 

All has gone wrong at Florida State. Entering the year, we thought this weekend’s matchup against Clemson would go a long way to determining the ACC title race. Now, the Seminoles don’t have a chance in that game. If Florida State somehow won, it would be the most shocking result in all of college football. 

Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei will be sidelined due to an injury this weekend, with Brock Glenn starting in his place. After its game against Clemson, Florida State’s next two games are against 5-0 Duke and Miami (Fla.). It’s likely the Seminoles will be 1-7 after that stretch. 

Eight losses is the most ever for a team that was ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25 poll. Florida State is going to give that record a run for its money, and I think the Seminoles will wind up losing nine games. 

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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