Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The AP NFL Coach of the Year award is often not given to the “best” coach but to the coach that overachieves his squad’s preseason expectations.
That eliminates coaches like Andy Reid (who has just one Coach of the Year award on his resume) or Mike Tomlin (who has never won). Instead, this accolade tends to be awarded to young coaches or those with new teams.
Every winner guided his team into the playoffs that season, so we must keep that in mind when considering who to wager on.
Additionally, it’s prudent to look at the long-shot options as well.
Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski won last season. His odds were +2500 before the year kicked off.
In 2022, the New York Giants’ Brian Daboll was +1400 — a number that’s lower than usual for the winner.
Mike Vrabel won in 2021 with +3000 odds. That number was near the bottom of the pack, reflecting some of the longest odds for this award.
Stefanski was listed at +2000 when he won the award in 2020.
With that in mind, let’s dig into the coaches I’d wager on to win next season.
Sean McVay +2200 for Coach of the Year
Sean McVay won in 2017 when his Los Angeles Rams went 11-5 in his first season in Los Angeles. He’s in a great position to grab this award for the second time after the Rams make the postseason in 2024.
No one believed the Rams were a playoff team before last season. Matthew Stafford was returning from an injury and the roster was super young. However, McVay, along with Stafford, had a successful 2023 season that ended with a one-point loss to the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
Although Aaron Donald hung up his cleats in the offseason, they return a talented, young roster and a healthy Stafford who’s still playing exceptional ball.
They are +330 to win the NFC West, which is actually the second-longest odds for any team coming in second in their division. The San Francisco 49ers are just that good. Take, for example, the Los Angeles Chargers, who are +320 to the Chiefs’ -230. So the Rams winning the division — which isn’t out of the question — would be a heck of an achievement.
And that would put McVay into the discussion for Coach of the Year.
PICK: Sean McVay (+2200) for Coach of the Year
Rams, Falcons win NFC West and South, Jets finish 3rd in Colin’s early NFL standings
Zac Taylor +2500 for Coach of the Year
The Cincinnati Bengals finished fourth in the AFC North last season after quarterback Joe Burrow only started 10 games. In a handful of those starts, he wasn’t close to 100%.
Cincinnati still finished with nine wins, so you know the team is talented beyond the quarterback and is also well-coached.
Burrow is finally healthy, and in the two seasons he started at least 16 games, the Bengals went 10-6 and 12-4. The truth is simply that Joe Burrow wins games when he’s active.
Cincy plays in football’s toughest division, and if successful this season, the Bengals’ accomplishments will look even better. So taking Taylor to win this award makes sense.
PICK: Zac Taylor (+2500) for Coach of the Year
Lane Johnson dishes on Eagles addition of Saquon Barkley
Nick Sirianni +4000 for Coach of the Year
Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles are a slight favorite to win the NFC East and are tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the third-best odds to win the conference.
So they’ve got lofty expectations, but what if they revert to the 2022 team?
Philly dominates everyone and will be the one-seed in the NFC. Having a Sirianni ticket in your pocket at +4000 would be amazing value.
The Eagles had some retirements on both the offensive and defensive lines, but they still have enough left on those units to continue controlling the trenches.
Last season, the offense faltered down the stretch while being stagnant and unimaginative. Those issues should be fixed.
It’s within the realm of possibility that the Eagles are 13-4 or 14-3 and secure the one-seed in the NFC.
PICK: Nick Sirianni (+4000) for Coach of the Year
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more