2024-25 College Football Playoff: Joel Klatt’s quarterfinals picks, preview

The first quarterfinal round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has arrived!

Each of the four games will be played as a bowl game — the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl — at a neutral location on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day. If I had my say, the Rose Bowl would serve as the national championship game on Jan. 1 each season, but that spiel is for another time.

Let’s get into these four games, though. We had another good showing of making picks against the spread in the first round, going 3-1. That improved our record to 51-32 in our picks against the spread this season. 

Here are my thoughts and picks for each of the four games. 

No. 6 Penn State (-11.5) vs. No. 3 Boise State Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET)

I think we can all agree that Penn State is playing its best football right now. Even in its recent loss to Oregon, Penn State had one of its best performances in a game against a legitimate top-five team in quite some time. We’ve seen Penn State struggle against Ohio State and Michigan in recent years before nearly taking down the Buckeyes earlier this season.

Penn State is getting closer. The naysayers might not want to hear that, but it’s true. The way PSU played against SMU signaled that this group is ready for the stage. This team is better than Boise State. As good as the story has been, it’s still a Group of 5 team that doesn’t have a roster nearly as good as Penn State’s. It’s not playing as well as PSU, either.

At this point, Penn State looks like it’s playing as well as anyone in the country. This team has a strong chance of reaching the title game. Offensively, the Nittany Lions scored 37 and put up over 500 yards in their Big Ten Championship Game loss. Defensively, they locked up the Mustangs in their first-round win with two pick-sixes and only 10 points allowed. 

But Penn State is also getting the ball to the right people offensively. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are handling the football and delivering. Those two have combined for 482 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the past two games. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki learned a hard lesson from the Ohio State loss and is now making sure the ball gets into the right player’s hands in the big moments. 

As for Boise State, some people might point to that three-point loss to Oregon as a reason why it could pull off the upset, but that game occurred at the best time for a non-power conference school to take on a top-ranked team. The difference between the top programs and the non-power programs is that the top teams have the depth to withstand the war of attrition during a season. 

That said, Ashton Jeanty is as elite as a running back as there is in the country. His ability to sustain high-level production throughout the year with the workload he has had is remarkable, and now he’s had three and a half weeks of rest. So, Penn State will have its hands full with him, and I think that’s the best way to attack the Nittany Lions’ defense. Penn State’s at its best defensively when it attacks in space, but Michigan and Ohio State have had success recently when they pounded it with their offensive line.

Because of that, I think Boise State will play outstanding in the first half, and we’ll ultimately have an enticing game. I don’t think Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen will be able to do a ton against this Penn State defense, though. This game is also one of the very few occasions where Boise State will have to get out of its comfort zone, as it has typically held a talent advantage over the rest of its conference in recent years. 

So, Penn State will have to get Boise State out of its comfort zone, and I think it will do that. I believe the Nittany Lions will start to pull away in the third and fourth quarters. Even if quarterback Drew Allar turns the ball over, Penn State is going to score some points. PSU’s depth is going to be an issue for Boise State, and it doesn’t lose games that it should win. 

Pick: Penn State 38, Boise State 24 (Penn State -11.5)

No. 5 Texas (-12.5) vs. No. 4 Arizona State Peach Bowl (Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET)

Let me start my preview of this game by saying this: One of the five teams that won in the first round is going to look sluggish in the quarterfinals. We typically don’t ask teams to play great against top teams in back-to-back weeks. That’s just not the nature of the sport. So, I feel like we could see Texas, or even Penn State, overlook its opponent. With all due respect to Arizona State and Boise State, they’re not going to strike a ton of fear in those teams. I think Texas and Penn State are the teams at the highest risk of playing poorly as a result.

Texas ran all over Clemson, rushing for 292 yards in its first-round win. Outside the two games against Georgia, you could bank on Texas’ offensive line and run game showing out. But it couldn’t run the ball in either of those games. 

The question becomes: Is Arizona State able to do what Georgia did to Texas against the run? Well, Arizona State had the No. 1 rush defense in the Big 12, but that was only good for 27th in the country. I’m not sure if that makes it as good as Georgia’s run defense. The Sun Devils probably don’t have the defensive linemen that Georgia is able to play across several snaps, either. 

But this is a great time to catch Texas in the CFP. Texas is coming off a good win and Arizona State has a great spark plug in running back Cam Skattebo. I love watching Skattebo. He’s a versatile player that’s hard to bring down. Arizona State made Iowa State look awful in the Big 12 Championship Game, in large part because of Skattebo. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has also won 11 of the 12 games he has started. 

Here’s the problem for Arizona State: It’s missing its best wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson. That’s going to be a problem because it doesn’t have a ton beyond him. 

I wanted to make this a tight game. I could see this game playing out the same way I envision the Fiesta Bowl playing out. Quinn Ewers is the major concern I have about Texas. If he’s asked to carry the Longhorns to a win, I’ve got my questions about that. If Ewers just has to manage the game, then I’m fine with Ewers. 

Texas’ offensive line and wide receiver Isaiah Bond’s expected return to the lineup should give the Longhorns the ultimate edge. I also think Texas’ defense, which is one of the best pass defenses in the country, will be too much for Arizona State, but it’ll be a little closer than what the spread suggests.

Pick: Texas 31, Arizona State 21 (Arizona State +12.5)

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon Rose Bowl (Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET)

Oregon won the first matchup between these two teams, 32-31. Since then, Ohio State has changed its defensive structure due to what happened in that game. Prior to and during that game, Ohio State’s defense had a basic structure that was set to limit explosive plays. It only rushed three and single covered on the far side of the field. That caused Oregon to hammer Ohio State with explosive plays on the outside, with quarterback Dillon Gabriel completing some big passes to Evan Stewart. Gabriel wasn’t sacked, either.

Ryan Day and Ohio State’s coaching staff had a lot of internal discussion after that loss. They determined that they wanted their defense to rush the quarterback more creatively and wanted safety Caleb Downs to be more involved in every play. Downs became the focal point of what OSU does defensively by putting him in the middle of the field, firmly establishing him as one of the few best defensive players in the country.

That’s why Ohio State is better suited to play Oregon now than in October. But Gabriel honestly had an underrated season, taking full command of that offense in his first year in Eugene. It wasn’t great in the first month, but he and the team have continued to get better ever since then. I think Gabriel’s performance against Penn State was a case study of what he can do against an athletic pass rush, which Ohio State has. Gabriel had these subtle movements in that game that allowed him to play well when under duress. It reminded me of Michael Penix Jr.’s performance against Texas in the Sugar Bowl last year.

Ohio State, I believe, has the best defense in the nation. However, I think its weakness is at corner, as I don’t think Denzel Burke can hold him in a speed matchup against Stewart — and Davison Igbinosun has had penalty concerns. 

The biggest question, though, is how will Ohio State want to play offensively? If it has a game plan like it had against Nebraska or Michigan, Oregon is going to win, but if it has a game plan like the one it had in the first Oregon game or against Tennessee, then I like Ohio State to win. I think this game is dependent on how aggressive Ohio State will be. If the Buckeyes are aggressive, they will score points. That’s not a knock on Oregon, but the Ducks allowed 30 points in all three games they played against CFP teams this season. 

Ohio State should’ve learned that lesson by now. The Buckeyes should know by now that Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka have to get the ball early and often. It seems like they learned that lesson when they demolished Tennessee.

This is the toughest game to pick. I’ve gone both ways on this, so I’m hedging here: Ohio State will win by one point this time around. This game should be incredible.

Pick: Ohio State 42, Oregon 41 (Oregon +2.5)

No. 7 Notre Dame (+1.5) vs. No. 2 Georgia Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET)

Which Georgia will we get in New Orleans? That answer is very dependent on its defensive line. There are some games where its defensive line is totally dominant and if it shows up, it can win this game. But what happens if Georgia’s defensive line plays the way it did against Alabama, Ole Miss or Georgia Tech and not the way it did in the two wins over Texas? Georgia has been so up and down, having some issues against teams with more mobile quarterbacks this season. 

On the other side, Georgia’s offense is just OK. It was 15th in the SEC in rushing this year. Oh, and it’s starting its backup quarterback. So, Georgia can’t lean on the run game, and it was apparent that it was scared to throw the ball with Gunner Stockton late in the SEC Championship Game. 

I don’t trust Georgia’s offense against a Notre Dame defense that has one of the best pass defenses in the country. Georgia doesn’t run the ball well enough to have success with a backup quarterback. Notre Dame’s defense is opportunistic and can get takeaways.

Offensively, Notre Dame has a run game it can rely on with a quarterback who also has the ability to move the ball with his legs in Riley Leonard. I love Jeremiyah Love and when you add that in with Leonard, I think Georgia could be in trouble. Leonard could have a big night, and this Notre Dame team has a roster built to beat this Georgia team. 

I don’t think this isn’t the same Georgia team we’ve been accustomed to seeing the last few years, either. I think this game was the easiest of the four to pick. 

Pick: Notre Dame 24, Georgia 17 (Notre Dame +1.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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