2024 CFP action report: ‘We’ll probably need Ohio State to win, Notre Dame to cover’

College Football Playoff title game odds feature two legacy name brands, royalty in the history of the game. Both Ohio State and Notre Dame have a huge public following.

But for now, four days out from Monday night’s final in Atlanta, the public betting masses are backing the Fighting Irish to cover the touchdown-plus point spread.

“We saw and continue to see an onslaught of Notre Dame money coming in,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

Feazel and college football betting expert Paul Stone serve up their insights on College Football Playoff championship odds.

Narrowing The Gap

Notre Dame is not only a robust 14-1 straight up (SU) this season but a nation-leading 13-2 against the spread (ATS). Following their stunning Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois, the Fighting Irish won 13 consecutive games and went 12-1 ATS.

That includes Notre Dame’s riveting 27-24 victory over Penn State as a 1.5-point underdog in the semifinals.

However, Ohio State (13-2 SU/9-6 ATS) has been easily the most impressive outfit in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Like the Irish, the Buckeyes are 3-0 SU and ATS in the postseason. But all three wins were by double digits.

In the semis, Ohio State got a strip-sack-scoop-and-score to seal a 28-14 win as a 5.5-point favorite vs. Texas.

Despite the Buckeyes’ surge, the public is on the ‘dog early. Caesars opened Ohio State -9.5 on Friday night and was down to -8 by Monday morning. And sharp play could still be coming in on Notre Dame too.

“Last week, we saw sharp money late, fading Ohio State against Texas, with that line going from -6 to -5.5 and even -5,” Feazel said. “I think we’re gonna see some sharper action on Notre Dame heading into kickoff. Which is surprising, because it’s been all Buckeyes the past couple weeks.”

That said, Feazel expects the betting pace to pick up on the favorite, at least on the point spread. The Notre Dame moneyline of +310 will be quite attractive to the betting public.

“We’ll probably need Ohio State to win and Notre Dame to cover,” Feazel said.

On-Campus Sharp Side

Stone was on the mark with all three of his picks so far in CFP odds. In the first round, he took Notre Dame -7 vs. Indiana, and the Irish won 27-17.

Then he took Arizona State to cover as a 13.5-point underdog vs. Texas. The Sun Devils rallied to force overtime and lost by eight, 39-31.

In the semis, Stone took Ohio State -5.5 vs. Texas. For the title game, he’s riding the Buckeyes’ bus again.

Ohio State opened as high as a 10.5 point favorite at one Las Vegas sportsbook. But as noted above, the Buckeyes are now consensus 8-point favorites over Notre Dame.

Stone respects Notre Dame’s accomplishments this season but notes Ohio State is on a mission since its 13-10 home loss vs. rival Michigan to end the regular season.

He recommends laying the 8 points and backing the Buckeyes in the title game.

“Ohio State is probably the square side here,” Stone said. “But the Buckeyes have found another gear in the Playoffs and have too much firepower for Notre Dame.”

Ohio State won each of its playoff games by 14 points or more, an impressive three-game run against Tennessee, Oregon and Texas. And the domination is on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes are averaging 7.5 yards per play during the playoffs, while allowing only 4.2 yards per play.

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has thrown 35 interceptions across his five-year collegiate career. But Howard has been mostly on target during the CFP. He’s completed 65 of 88 passes for 919 yards — 10.4 yards per attempt — in the postseason. Howard has six touchdown passes against two interceptions.

“If Howard protects the ball and doesn’t turn it over, I think Ohio State is going to be a tough out for the Fighting Irish,” Stone said.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

As noted earlier this week, Mattress Mack had the $1.5 million wager on Texas +390 to win the championship. So that ticket is now a large donation to Caesars Sports.

But other bets live on in College Football Playoff championship odds. Caesars has a couple of larger Ohio State bets in play, with the smaller bet looking at a bigger win, because the customer got in right after the first round of the CFP:

• $29,200 Ohio State +380 to win the championship. If the Buckeyes beat the Irish, then the bettor profits a tidy $110,960 (total payout $140,160).
• $85,500 Ohio State -115 to win the title. That bet was made on Jan. 6, ahead of the Buckeyes’ semifinal win vs. Texas. So the payout isn’t nearly as good, but it’s still nice, at $74,348 (total payout $159,848).

Perhaps the more notable wager is one previously reported in this space: $500 on Notre Dame +8000 (80/1) to win the national title, again at Caesars.

It was a pretty savvy bet made on Sept. 9, right after Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois. There was an immediate sky-is-falling reaction, and some books stretched out as for as +10000 (100/1) on the Fighting Irish.

Still, 80/1 is a great price to have, too. If the Irish pull the upset and lift the trophy on Monday night, then the bettor collects $40,000 in profit.

I’ll be rooting for that to happen, but more so because fellow FOX Sports betting analyst Sam Panayotovich got a piece of Notre Dame before the Playoff began. Panayotovich put $1,000 on Notre Dame at +1000.

Sure, it’s not +8000, but he’s still looking at a $10,000 win if the Irish deliver a championship. And that means the drinks are on Sammy the next time he’s in Vegas. 

Wake up the echoes, everybody!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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