Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
As bowl season continues, the College Football Playoff is set to begin.
Unlike with much of bowl season, there will be no players sitting out of these games as they look ahead to the NFL or to enter the transfer portal. Instead, for the first time in the history of the sport, 12 squads will give it their all for a shot at a national title.
The first round will feature No. 8 Ohio State hosting No. 9 Tennessee, No. 7 Notre Dame hosting No. 10 Indiana, No. 6 Penn State hosting No. 11 SMU, and No. 5 Texas hosting No. 12 Clemson. The top four seeds — No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State — await the winners of those games in the quarterfinals.
I have my eye on two first round matchups. Let’s get into my best bets.
(All times ET)
No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame (Friday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN)
The first game of the 12-team College Football Playoff era is an all-Indiana matchup.
The surprising Hoosiers, 11-1 out of nowhere, head to South Bend to face the 11-1 Irish, who have been steamrolling opponents most of the season. Indiana is a Playoff team with an efficient offense (second in points per drive) and a run defense to match (one of the best in the country). Notre Dame is here on the back of a Week 1 win over Texas A&M before dominating the rest of its schedule (outside of that Northern Illinois loss).
In addition, both of these teams have comparable strengths of schedule, despite playing in different conferences.
To me, this game comes down to Notre Dame’s first down offense against Indiana’s run defense. Indiana’s run defense is fourth in success rate and first in EPA against the run. The Irish have an outstanding rushing attack, one that is second in EPA. The reason why first down is so important is the Irish are bad on third and long. They are 129th in the country on third and seven or more. This requires the offense to run through the arm of quarterback Riley Leonard and that’s not where you want the Irish offense to be.
Indiana also plays a ton of zone, which should be effective if/when the Irish have to pass on third-and-distance.
For the Irish to run the football, they will need Leonard to be a huge part of the plan. Leonard is averaging nearly six yards a carry and Indiana has not seen a quarterback like him all season. It’s a huge advantage for the Irish, who will need to use Leonard’s legs to win on first down. Also, I like Leonard to run when the Hoosiers drop back into zone coverage on those third downs. When no one is open, he will have to create some offense.
PICK: Riley Leonard Over 52 rushing yards
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish — CFP College Football 25 Simulation
No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State (Saturday, noon, TNT/Max)
This game is a James Franklin special for Penn State.
Franklin is often dogged because he does not win games against top-five opponents, but outside of those contests, his teams routinely cover in these situations. When Penn State is a favorite of between seven and 24 points, it is 18-1-1 against the spread.
The Nittany Lions are currently a nine-point favorite at home against SMU.
They are better in both trenches, and if they bring the offensive creativity we saw against Oregon, they should be able to score points against the Mustangs defense. Their offense is ranked 11th in efficiency, and when SMU faced similar offenses — think Clemson, Louisville and TCU — they allowed at least 27 points. That’s not going to win a road game on Saturday.
SMU’s offense can be explosive, but I’m worried about it in this game. It is middle of the pack in rushing success rate and its running backs do not break a ton of tackles. The Mustangs’ backs are ranked 118th in yards per carry after contact. So, in order to run football, they will need clean rushing lanes, which seems difficult to imagine for 60 minutes.
This will lead to SMU being in third-and-long situations often (54% of their third downs are seven yards or more). Good luck with that on the road against Penn State’s pass rush.
CFP First Round Super Six: Ohio State vs. Tennessee, Clemson vs. Texas and more
This game will be a first in College Football Playoff history: a warm weather team is heading to a cold weather destination for a Playoff game. The college football regular season is over by the end of December, and most weather games — which are rare — are played between conference foes or rivals who experience the same weather at their home stadiums.
This is an angle we often discuss in the NFL at this time of the season, when a warm-weather team (yes, I understand it can get cold in Dallas) goes to a 20-degree stadium. It does affect those teams and most notably in the warm-ups, as it takes longer to get warm. You have to spend mental energy thinking about the weather. You require more layers of clothing. Your routine is different.
Is this the difference between covering a point spread or not? Hard to say. But we have so many examples of this affecting the result of a football game.
Lastly, SMU is a penalty-prone team, playing in front of a crowd it has never experienced before. The Mustangs rank 131st in penalty yards per game. That is not a recipe for success in this contest.
PICK: Penn State (-9) to win by more than 9 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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