Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The time has come.
The first ever 12-team College Football Playoff begins Friday night, with Indiana visiting South Bend to take on Notre Dame. And then, three more exciting matchups take place on Saturday.
There was so much debate about whether expanding the playoffs would be good or bad for college football. But now that the games are here, it’s hard not to be excited. All four matchups have a spread of a touchdown or more. That’s the complete opposite of conference championship weekend, a weekend in which all the major conferences featured title games with a line of three points or fewer.
With a trip to the quarterfinals on the line, let’s dig into all four games, with a recommended bet on each one.
No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5, O/U 52.5)
The battle of Indiana features two one-loss teams.
Indiana lost at Ohio State; Notre Dame was on the wrong end of the most shocking upset of the year, losing as a four-touchdown favorite to Northern Illinois in Week 2.
While both teams have gaudy records and impressive point differentials, there are plenty of questions about both teams’ strength of schedule.
I prefer Indiana plus the points in this one because I think the Hoosiers keep this game close and have a real chance to pull the upset.
But my favorite bet is the Under of 52 points.
Indiana has the nation’s top run defense, allowing under 75 yards per game rushing and under three yards per carry. And Notre Dame is a run-heavy team. Both times Indiana stepped up in class (against Michigan and Ohio State), sustaining offense was a major issue.
Weather could also be a factor here.
PICK: Under 52 points scored by both teams combined
Syracuse vs. Washington, Ohio State vs. Tennessee: CFP First Round Best Bets
No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State (-9, O/U 54)
SMU is a great story and the Mustangs nearly cashed in as 20-1 long shots to win the ACC.
But who have they played?
They’ll see one of the nation’s stingiest defenses this week, as Penn State allows just 16.4 points per game. That ranks eighth in the country.
SMU faced BYU in Week 2 (BYU is 20th in the country at 20.1 PPG allowed) and was held to 15 points and 3.4 yards per play. SMU is a team from Texas that’s playing outdoors in cold weather against a Penn State team that just ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon.
I can only look to the favorite here.
PICK: Penn State (-9) to win by more than 9 points
How will Ryan Day approach the game plan vs. Tennessee?
No. 12 Clemson @ No. 5 Texas (-12, O/U 54)
This game has the biggest spread of the weekend. Clemson needed a mini-miracle to even participate in the ACC Title Game, much less reach the playoffs.
The Tigers can come in here fast and loose, but can they score?
In their three losses, Clemson was held to three points against Georgia, 14 points at home to South Carolina and had seven points at home against Louisville with six minutes to play before they scored a couple of cosmetic touchdowns.
Texas has an elite defense. The visitors will find it very hard to score.
PICK: Clemson team total Under 19.5 points scored
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No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5)
This might be the most-anticipated matchup of the weekend, as the winner here will provide a difficult and unfortunate draw for top-seeded Oregon.
The last time we saw Ohio State, the Buckeyes suffered a humiliating upset loss at the hands of rival Michigan on Thanksgiving weekend. I’m worried about overreacting to the recency bias, but the Buckeyes are missing their star left tackle as well as their outstanding center, and that will spell trouble against the formidable defensive line of Tennessee.
I think Ohio State likely squeaks out a hard-fought win, but winning by two scores is asking a lot.
PICK: Tennessee (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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