2024 CFP quarterfinal picks, predictions: Penn State to win, cover against Boise State

My favorite wager of the four quarterfinal games is Penn State to win and cover against Boise State. 

The Broncos had an amazing season and earned a tie for the first round of the postseason. They got a first-round bye, but that does not mean they are significantly better than Indiana or SMU — two teams who were not competitive over 60 minutes against their opponents.

I see the same result for Boise State.

Boise State has a single loss this season to the No. 1 ranked team. It lost by three points in Eugene to the Oregon Ducks back in the middle of September. 

I would caution using that result to preview this game. It was nearly four months ago and teams, coaches and players change. 

For example, after two weeks of the NFL season, the New Orleans Saints were unstoppable, and their offensive coordinator was the next Sean McVay. And we all know how that situation has unfolded.

Therefore, it’s foolish to use that game to predict the outcome of this one, so I will not do that. It is, however, fair to mention the Broncos’ conference schedule and how that relates to both the Indiana and SMU results.

According to SP+, the Broncos played two games against teams ranked 38th in SP+ team efficiency. That was UNLV, who they beat by five in Vegas and then by two touchdowns in Boise to end the season. The rest of their conference opponents all ranked between 95 and 120. 

Just a dreadful schedule. 

The same strength-of-schedule argument was used to preview Indiana and SMU against Notre Dame and Penn State, respectively. Boise State will play a caliber of team that it has not seen all season. Penn State’s athleticism, size, power and strength will be a huge test.

The Broncos all-world running back Ashton Jeanty might be the best overall player on the field, but what if he struggles to gain yards against a tough and physical Penn State rushing defense? Is Boise State throwing the ball to win? No. Boise State’s defense ranks 71st in yards per play. And while the Penn State offense can lack explosiveness, it can move the ball at will against this Broncos team.

Last note on this game: When there’s a plus symbol next to the Penn State wagering line, you want to fade the Nittany Lions. They do not cover those games with regularity. However, when there’s a minus before their name, they cover all the time, with Penn State head coach James Franklin holding a 19-1-1 record when his squad is a favorite of between seven and 24 points.

PICK: Penn State (-11) to win by more than 11 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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