Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Thanksgiving weekend is here, and we have somehow already reached the conclusion of the college football regular season.
It seems like just a few weeks ago we were counting down the days to the start of the season. I vividly remember anxiously awaiting Week 0 and all the great matchups on Labor Day weekend the following Saturday.
The regular season is ending with a bang, with stunning upsets shaking up the College Football Playoff outlook last Saturday. Ole Miss and Alabama were picked off as big road favorites and both teams now sit with three losses.
Indiana suffered its first loss of the season at Ohio State. But unless the Hoosiers lose again this week to Purdue as 30-point favorites, they will finish the season with just one loss — a very forgivable one at that. With that in mind, Indiana is safely in, assuming it gets a win on Saturday.
As far as the rest of the field, Oregon and Ohio State are surely in and Penn State and Texas are very likely in as well. But what else do we really know about the field of 12 as we enter the final weekend?
Georgia looked like it just needed to beat Georgia Tech in the season finale, as that would have ended the Dawgs’ season with two losses, assuring them a spot in the Playoffs. But with all the upsets, Georgia will now play in an SEC Championship Game and could net a third loss.
Here’s something else to consider. Can the winner of this weekend’s South Carolina-Clemson game now get in? Does the ACC get two teams in?
What makes the next two weeks so much fun is that we have way more questions than answers.
So, as we settle in with football on the screen and leftovers in the fridge, is there a bet to be made on the national champion?
Warning: Some fans will dislike even the thought of this possibility.
Alabama +4000 National Champion
Are you 100 percent sure the loss to Oklahoma last week eliminated the Crimson Tide? I’m certainly not, and neither are the oddsmakers.
Alabama is an underdog to make the College Football Playoff, but at +180 odds, it’s certainly not priced as something that’s completely impossible.
Again, I have more questions than answers.
Alabama & Ole Miss: Will both miss the Playoff after suffering a third loss?
For example, what if Tennessee and/or Notre Dame lose this weekend? Or what if the final spot comes down to a two-loss SMU team and a three-loss Alabama team? Which would the committee choose?
The brand name of Alabama, the Tide’s win over potential SEC champ Georgia, and the possibility of an upset-filled weekend makes it hard for me to completely write off Alabama — even if I don’t necessarily agree that it belongs in the Playoff with three losses.
Yes, Alabama is unlikely to get in, but as we saw last weekend, upsets happen in this sport, and what’s unlikely one day can change quickly to reality.
If the Tide do get in — despite their flaws — they could make a run in what is a wide-open year in college football. And at 40-1 odds, that’s a bet I couldn’t argue against making.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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