Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It’s almost over, friends. The end of the 2024 college football regular season is on the horizon.
Good thing we have a 12-team Playoff this year to keep it interesting.
Before we head into the thrilling conference games next week and then the Playoffs, I’ve got some wagers that I’m hoping will win us all some money.
Let’s check out my best bets for college football Week 14.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, NOV. 30
Fresno State @ UCLA (3:30 p.m., BTN)
One angle that I like to play in the final week of the regular season is fading a team off a rivalry loss that has nothing to play for on Thanksgiving weekend.
UCLA started the season 1-5, then won three straight games before losing to Washington and USC in its last two games. The Bruins went from having a disastrous start to the Deshaun Foster Era to turning the corner with road wins at Rutgers and Nebraska to possibly playing in a bowl game back to things not going so well.
After not being able to score against USC last weekend, UCLA is no longer bowl eligible and there’s nothing left to play for this weekend.
The older players are already making plans for the NFL combine and the players who want to transfer are planning their exit.
Enter Fresno State, a Mountain West team that’s bowl eligible after a huge upset win against Colorado State last weekend.
I’m from Southern California and grew up a UCLA fan. I know the ecosystem of California college football well. When a Group of Five team (Fresno State, San Jose State) plays UCLA, USC, Cal or Stanford (and even Oregon), athletes on those teams have vengeance on their minds.
They were most likely passed over by the four major California schools in recruiting and ended up at Fresno State. They want to beat these teams, and now, they catch UCLA at a vulnerable time for an upset.
Ohio State vs. Michigan best bets, predictions & odds: CFB Week 14 Super Six
Besides the emotion of wanting to win, Fresno State’s team stands up well against UCLA.
The Bulldogs rank 73rd in offensive points per drive and 49th in defensive points per drive. UCLA is 113th in offensive points per drive and 107 on defense.
Yes, these stats are opponent-adjusted as UCLA has played the top tier of the Big Ten while Fresno State plays in the Mountain West. But it’s worth noting that these teams have similar profiles, and I’m geting over a touchdown with Fresno State wanting to win this game?
I’ll take Fresno State to cover.
PICK: Fresno State (+8.5) to lose by fewer than 8.5 points, or win outright
Penn State vs. Maryland, Baylor vs. Kansas in CFB Week 14 Best Bets
Maryland @ No. 4 Penn State (3:30 p.m., BTN)
This is a big number for Penn State. But their head coach James Franklin will punch in a few late touchdowns to get this number covered.
More than anything else — and just like UCLA — Penn State’s opponent in Maryland is a dead team.
Maryland’s last seven games have been a disaster. The Terrapins won a single game by one point against USC. They’ve lost all seven games by at least 14 points and last weekend they benched their quarterback against Iowa in a 16-point loss.
The Nittany Lions are playing for a playoff berth and what do they do so well? They stop poor teams from scoring and they score late to cover the spread.
I’m not sure Maryland scores much in this game. The Terrapins have an injury at quarterback and no motivation for success. Penn State’s defense has shown up in every game this season, including against offenses like Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions offense is facing a Maryland defense that ranks 89th in scoring and 115th in passing success rate. Maryland allowed 38 to Oregon, 48 to Minnesota and 42 to Indiana.
Penn State will score in this game.
PICK: Penn State (-24.5) to win by more than 24.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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