Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The college football season seems to be flying by already, right?
Here we are, in Week 3, and we’ve already got some huge rivalry games on tap.
It’s mainly due to conference realignment, but still.
In addition, Kalen DeBoer will get his first true road test as the new leading man in Tuscaloosa.
Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 3.
(All times ET)
Saturday, Sept. 14
No. 4 Alabama -16 @ Wisconsin (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Alabama’s first road game under new coach Kalen DeBoer is a trip to Madison to face Wisconsin.
These teams play with contrasting styles. Alabama has special talents on offense with a game plan that’s about pushing the ball down the field, while using its uber-athletic quarterback in the run game as an outlet. Alabama’s defense is ninth in points per drive, which is acceptable after playing Western Kentucky and USF.
Wisconsin is 2-0 after beating Western Michigan 28-14 in week one followed by South Dakota 27-13.
It’s hard to find an angle I like for this Big Noon Kickoff battle. This is Alabama’s first game with a new staff and there’s bound to be operational issues working through the noise and environment in Madison. Alabama has 89 rush attempts to only 44 pass attempts this season, and on the road, this trend should continue — protecting a new passing offense while focusing on winning in the trenches. Alabama has offensive line concerns at one position and that’s limiting its ability to pass protect.
Wisconsin is into Year 2 of Phil Longo’s offense, and through two weeks, it is still finding its rhythm. It’s fair to argue if this offense was holding things back for Alabama, but even then, I’d still be disappointed with the lack of points through two weeks. Wisconsin has been unable to generate any explosive plays, and you’re not going to score on Alabama by playing pickleball on offense.
This game feels like a first-half Under, with Alabama starting slow playing on the road and running the football to protect the offensive line, while Wisconsin plays ball control, hoping for some offensive explosion or an Alabama mistake.
Lastly, I’d look to live wager on Alabama at a better number at some point in this game. Its talent should take over in the second half.
PICK: First half Under 26.5 points scored by both teams combined
Washington State @ Washington -5 (3:30 p.m., Peacock)
It’s Pacific Northwest Rivalry weekend.
With conference realignment changing schedules to feature conference rivalry games to end the season, the Civil War and Apple Cup have been moved to the third weekend in September. I like the favorite to cover in both of these games.
Let’s start in Seattle, with the Washington Huskies playing the Washington State Cougars at Luman field, home of the Seahawks.
Washington is just under a touchdown favorite against the Cougars, and I’m surprised this number isn’t higher. The Huskies have a rebuilt two deep with first-year head coach Jedd Fisch, and it’s gone better than I expected. Washington beat Weber State 35-3 and Eastern Michigan 30-9. While neither of those teams are challenging for a team like the Huskies, they have looked far more together and cohesive than other squads with a brand new roster. They have legit talents at quarterback and running back, plus a coach who can scheme for success.
On defense, UW is 16th in points per drive and have done a good job creating havoc.
Washington State is 2-0, having beaten Portland State 70-30 and Texas Tech 37-16. Texas Tech was without its best player on offense and had four turnovers. It outgained the Cougars and was better on third down.
The Cougars are a feisty team that will relish handing their bitter rivals their first loss of the season, but I don’t see that happening on Saturday. It’s hard to find an advantage the Cougars have in this game or something they can exploit. The Washington defense is far better than WSU’s previous two opponents and I do not expect the Cougars to run all over the Huskies like they ran over Texas Tech.
I like the Huskies to cover the -5.
PICK: Washington (-5) to win by more than five points
Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson highlight Joel Klatt’s weeekend check-in
No. 9 Oregon -16.5 @ Oregon State (3:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
Oregon has narrowly won two games, after escaping with a 37-34 win against Boise State. It now travels to Corvallis to play a 2-0 Beaver squad that’s got the same mindset as its Pac-2 compadres up north: defeat their rival in embarrassing fashion.
Sadly, that’s not happening this weekend.
Oregon’s “issues” are all self-inflicted, a combination of mistakes, turnovers and dumb play. A flip of the switch towards cleaner football and Oregon is on its way back, and this is the weekend for that for one reason.
Oregon’s offensive line has not played to standard, calling for it to adjust some of the pieces for parts of the Boise St. game. It resulted in it playing much better as a group. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was not hit, and the Ducks ran the ball. This group is going to start the game Saturday and I expect Oregon’s offense to start fast. The Ducks have better players on that side of the ball than Oregon State.
If Oregon starts fast, that puts Oregon State into throw mode on offense and that’s not where it would like to be. The Beavers have 41 pass attempts to 109 rushes this season. If you turn this game into a passing attack for the Beavers, the Oregon defensive line will cook.
I think Oregon finally breaks out of this slump and routs the Beavers.
PICK: Oregon (-16.5) to win by 17 points or more
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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