2024 College Football picks Week 5: Kansas State to cover; Oregon team total Over

College football Week 5 features some intriguing matchups, including one between UCLA and Oregon that I have my eye on.

One reason that I’m looking at that game is because Oregon is close to my heart. I was a lineman there before my NFL career, so as a player-turned-fan, I know more than a little when it comes to my Ducks.

Of course, there are a few other games that I think are worth a wager.

So let’s dive into my best bets for Week 5.

No. 20 Oklahoma State @ No. 23 Kansas State (noon ET, Saturday, ESPN)

Not all losses are created equal, and the results of these teams from last weekend are a good example.

Kansas State went on the road to play a feisty BYU squad in a night game. Kansas State was leading 6-3 with just over a minute before halftime. Six minutes of game time later, the score was 31-6 BYU. A fumble return for a touchdown, a few interceptions with short fields and a 90-yard punt return all within those six minutes doomed Kansas State. 

Oklahoma State was at home against Utah and the Utes were without their starting quarterback. Utah walked into T. Boone Pickens stadium with a true freshman quarterback who hadn’t even gotten all the first-team reps at practice that week and boat-raced the Cowboys. 

Do not let the final score fool you. Utah was up 22-3 before Oklahoma State added two late touchdowns to make it closer than it appeared. Oklahoma State’s offensive line and run game continued to struggle while the quarterback play was atrocious. At one point, Alan Bowman was 8-for-22 for under 100 yards.

So I’m backing Kansas State in this game because the Wildcats are better. 

I’m not letting six minutes of one game override their dominant win against Arizona two weeks ago. Oklahoma State’s run game might be one of the most disappointing units this season, and it’s not getting better on the road against Kansas State. 

If Oklahoma State is forced to throw the ball, the Cowboys might not score in this game. On the other hand, I trust Kansas State’s offense to bounce back and stay ahead of the chains, which will allow Avery Johnson to use his legs and stay away from having to make his arm be the offense.

PICK: Kansas State (-5) to win by more than 5 points

Colorado @ UCF (3:30 p.m ET, Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Colorado is heading to Orlando after an epic win against Baylor on Saturday night. 

The Buffaloes converted on a Hail Mary to force overtime, quickly scored in the first overtime period and then forced a fumble on Baylor’s OT possession to win the game 31-24. 

The two best players on the field, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, came up big in those moments to get the win for the Buffs. Now, they are facing a UCF team off a bye after a come-from-behind victory over TCU two weekends ago. This is an opportunity to take advantage of the spot to wager on UCF in the first half, with Colorado on the road after an emotional win on Saturday. 

UCF plays fast on offense. The Knights rank eighth in adjusted pace of play and seventh in points per drive. They average 75 plays per game and coming off a bye, I’d expect this offense to be greased up. 

They will be ready to score quickly, and the pace of play will be an issue for Colorado’s defense — a defense that does not play well in the first half. It is 101st in points allowed in the first half this season, while only being 88th in points scored in the first half. 

However, Colorado plays much better in the second half of games. 

Colorado’s second-half adjustments do not get the credit they deserve. The Buffs defense goes from allowing 18.3 points in the first half to only 4.3 in the second. That’s good for the ninth-best second-half defense. 

The offense operates in the same manner. 

It scores more points in the first half than in the second and that’s because Sanders and Hunter are hard to contain for 60 minutes. No matter how much Sanders gets hit — and he will get hit in this game — he continues to bounce back. It’s impressive. 

Considering all of the above, I’m on UCF for the first half of this game. 

PICK: UCF (-7.5) to lead my more than 7.5 points in the first half

No. 8 Oregon @ UCLA (11 p.m. ET, Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Oregon is off a bye and ready to score points in bunches against UCLA’s poor defense. 

The Bruins defense — having played Hawaii, Indiana and LSU — ranks 126th in points allowed per drive. It is 130th in passing success rate defense, 126th in pressure rate and dead last in third-down defense.

Oregon’s offense struggled a bit in the first two weeks, but after figuring out the offensive line before Oregon State, the Ducks came alive in Corvallis. 

They only had the ball eight times with scoring opportunities (not counting the kneel-downs at the end of each half) and they scored all eight times. Ducks racked up six touchdowns and two field goals. The offense is alive now, and off a bye, it will score a lot against UCLA. 

Also, worth noting is that Oregon tends to play well in Los Angeles because it is a showcase game for them in the region for recruiting. Players from the area love showing at home and Oregon’s coaching staff knows recruits are watching the game. 

Finally, when the Ducks eventually go to their backup quarterback Dante Moore, they will continue to score points. Moore is a UCLA transfer and the offense does not stop when he’s in the game. 

PICK: Oregon Over 40.5 points scored

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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