2024 College Football picks Week 9: Bet Indiana, Ohio State to cover

We’re cruising right along in this college football season.

And now that we’re in Week 9, there are a few interesting matchups on the slate.

I’m particularly interested in the Notre Dame-Navy game, as the Midshipmen finally face a team that should be able to hold its own against them. 

But what will the final outcome be?

Keep reading to see how I’m wagering on that matchup, plus a couple more of my best bets for this weekend.

(All times ET)

Saturday, Oct. 26

Washington @ No. 13 Indiana (noon, BTN)

Indiana is 7-0 straight up (SU) and 7-0 against the spread (ATS). The Hoosiers are the best story in college football with first year head coach Curt Cignetti. And his squad looks to make it 8-0 as the football world turns its attention to Bloomington. 

Indiana is without its starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke because of a thumb injury. Tayven Jackson will start for Indiana after a full week of preparation. While Rourke will be missed, I believe Jackson can adequately run the Hoosiers offense and be successful in this matchup. 

Their run game is outstanding, and the Huskies run defense is far worse on the road; almost two yards difference in yards per rush when Washington’s at home versus on the road. 

Then you have to look at how Washington’s offense will match up against Indiana’s defense. 

The Huskies offense is good but doesn’t finish drives with points. It is 80th in points per drive and that is because it does dumb stuff on the road. UW has played four games at home and averaged around five penalties per contest. The Huskies have played three games away from home and average 9.5 penalties per game in those instances. 

Adding to the home/road splits is the Huskies’ third-down production. 

On offense, UW has converted 49% of third-down attempts at home. When away from home, that number drops to 27%. Washington’s third-down defense stops the opponent 23% of the time at home but that number drops to 48% on the road. 

Alarming splits for Washington on the road against Indiana. 

I’m taking Indiana to cover this game. 

PICK: Indiana (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points

Nebraska @ No. 4 Ohio State (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Ohio State is going to name its score in this game against Nebraska. 

The Buckeyes are off a bye after losing a hard-fought game against Oregon by a single point. They are still the most talented team in the country and had an entire two weeks to stew on the Oregon loss. They rank fifth in offensive points per drive and have scored at least 31 points in all their games. Ohio State is fourth in defensive points per drive and, outside of allowing 32 against Oregon, the Buckeyes have allowed no more than 14 points in a single game. 

Nebraska started fast in Matt Rhule’s second season but has slowed down in recent weeks. 

Most of this can be attributed to the fact the Huskers offense is led by a true freshman quarterback. It has scored only 21 points in the last two games, including a 56-7 loss to Indiana last weekend. It is 84th in points per drive and 114th in yards per successful play. 

After the Buckeyes defense heard all week how it can’t rush the passer and had to hear about how it got burned by Oregon’s receivers, I would expect Ohio State’s defense to play well. 

This feels like 49-7, Ohio State.

PICK: Ohio State (-25.5) to win by more than 25.5 points

No. 12 Notre Dame @ No. 24 Navy (noon, ABC)

Undefeated Navy “hosts” Notre Dame at MetLife stadium in East Rutherford. 

Navy is playing its first game of the season against a team that can adequately punch back, and we have seen plenty of teams lose this season in the same situation. 

Georgia lost to Alabama. Texas lost to Georgia. Ohio State lost to Oregon. 

I think Navy is in for the same fate this weekend.

Here are the SP+ team efficiency rankings of the five FBS Navy opponents: Temple is 127, Memphis 59, UAB 119, Air Force 125 and Charlotte 122. 

The best offense Navy faced was Memphis and the Midshipmen allowed 44 points to the Tigers. Notre Dame is ranked eighth in SP+, 30th in offensive points per drive and fifth in defensive points per drive.

Navy’s offense is fun. The Midshipmen pass the ball more now, but I don’t see them matching up physically with Notre Dame’s defensive attack. The Fighting Irish offense can rush the ball against a Navy defense ranked 96th in rushing success rate. 

I think Notre Dame overpowers Navy and covers this game. 

PICK: Notre Dame (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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