Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College Football Playoff odds for the first round are all the rage right now, with games set for Dec. 20-21. Among the 12 teams in the expanded field, Clemson scratched its way in as the No. 12 seed.
But Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel thinks the Tigers could prove tricky for No. 5 seed Texas. That’s despite the Tigers being the biggest first-round underdog, getting 11 points on the road vs. the Longhorns.
“I don’t think I’d want to play this Clemson team, with their experience being in these big games,” Feazel said.
Indeed, Clemson is making its seventh College Football Playoff appearance, with the other six coming in the four-team format, where coach Dabo Swinney & Co. won two national titles.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on College Football Playoff first-round odds.
Respected Money
After four days of first-round CFP odds marinating, two matchups have drawn sharp money at Caesars Sports: No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, and No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State.
The Hoosiers and Fighting Irish kick off the CFP at 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 20. Indiana is 11-1 straight up (SU)/9-3 against the spread (ATS), while Notre Dame is 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS.
Which means these two teams are among the best in the nation for bettors. Only Marshall (10-1-1 ATS) has a better spread-covering record than Notre Dame, while Indiana has college football’s fifth-best point-spread mark.
Caesars opened Notre Dame -8 and quickly moved to -7.5, with good reason.
“We’ve seen some Indiana money come in slightly, at +8. And that’s really kind of the sharp side,” Feazel said.
However, Notre Dame is the national name brand, and the public betting masses won’t hesitate to line up behind that brand.
“It’s mostly Notre Dame money on the spread and Indiana on the moneyline. So right now, we need Indiana to stay within the number and Notre Dame to win the game,” Feazel said.
Tennessee-Ohio State opened with the Buckeyes 7-point favorites and went to Ohio State -7.5 (even) in fairly short order. But that half-point caught Vols bettors’ interest, including sharp action at Caesars on Tennessee +7.5 (-120).
“It’s mostly Tennessee money so far, a decent amount on the spread and a decent amount on the moneyline,” Feazel said. “This is a matchup that’s really good on paper, with really good defenses that have played well throughout the year.
“I don’t see this number moving up. If anything, it moves toward Tennessee. I think we’re gonna land on 7.”
Heading into this 8 p.m. ET kick on Dec. 21, Ohio State is 10-2 SU/6-6 ATS, and Tennessee is 10-2 SU/7-5 ATS.
Fiddle in the Middle
The aforementioned Clemson vs. Texas clash hasn’t moved off the Longhorns as 11-point favorites at Caesars.
“People are either laying Texas -11 or taking Clemson on the moneyline,” Feazel said.
Clemson is +330 on the moneyline, which is helping attract some bettors. If you put $100 on the Tigers, and they pull off the upset, you’d profit $330 (total payout $430). Those taking Texas on the spread are hoping for a win by more than 11.
“We call it the Super Bowl middle. It’s something we’re seeing in these playoff games,” Feazel said. “If they like the ‘dog, they’ll play the moneyline for that value at 2/1 or 3/1. If they like the favorite, they’ll play the point spread.
“So we need that Super Bowl middle.”
Meaning Texas to win the game and Clemson to cover the spread. The Tigers are 10-3 SU/6-6 ATS, while the Longhorns are 11-2 SU/7-6 ATS entering this matchup, at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 21.
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State is somewhat similar. The Nittany Lions (11-2 SU/6-7 ATS) opened as 8.5-point favorites, dipped to -8, then returned to -8.5, all within a few hours Sunday.
As of Wednesday night, Penn State is still -8.5 vs. SMU (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS), for a noon ET start on Dec. 21.
“It’s mostly Penn State money, and a little bit of SMU on the moneyline. So again, the middle is what’s best for the book right now,” Feazel said. “I think we’re gonna see a lot of Penn State action as we get closer to kickoff.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
The most interesting wagers are on the longer shots in College Football Playoff championship futures. In particular, one bettor has three tickets at The SuperBook and one at Circa Sports on Boise State, with bets made over the summer.
The four wagers add up to $1,300. If the Broncos shock the world and lift the trophy on Jan. 20, then the bettor wins $1 million.
Caesars Sports took a couple CFP futures bets that could pay out quite well. The largest wager came just last week, when a Louisiana customer put $1.5 million on Texas +390 to win the national title.
If the Longhorns run the table, then the bettor pockets a massive windfall of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.
And a month ago, a bet came in — again from Louisiana — for $50,000 on Georgia +500 to win the title. Should the Bulldogs win it all for the third time in four years, then the bettor nets $250,000 (total payout $300,000).
Nice payouts, all. Check back in six weeks to see how those bets worked out.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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