2024 College Football Week 1 action report: ‘Colorado is the most-bet team to cover’

The long national nightmare is over. Football — the college kind — has arrived.

The schedule makers provided a few bang-up matchups in the college football Week 1 odds market. But like last season, Coach Deion Sanders is all the early rage, as his Colorado Buffaloes host perennial FCS championship contender North Dakota State.

“I’m not surprised at all. The Colorado action has been pretty consistent. It’s not as much as last year, but the Buffaloes haven’t really lost their juice,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on several notable Week 1 games, as we make our maiden voyage into 2024 college football betting nuggets.

Ahead of the Curve

Multiple bookmakers in Las Vegas and across the country have noted they’ve got liability to Colorado for Thursday night’s game in Boulder. 

At the moment, Caesars Sports isn’t in that position — but it will be by 8 p.m. ET Thursday.

“We’ve been staying ahead of Colorado, because we think highly of Colorado,” Feazel said Wednesday evening.

Caesars opened this matchup way back on April 22 at Colorado -9.5, but saw that number fall back to -7.5 in early May. By Aug. 3, it was up to -9, and the Buffs stretched as high as -10.5 briefly on Wednesday. 

Colorado is now -9.5.

“It seems the sharps are telling us 10 is too much. But that could change,” Feazel said. “Right now we actually need Colorado by 11 or more, but it’s a very small decision. I expect we’ll need North Dakota State by kickoff.

“The public will come in on game day for Colorado.”

At BetMGM, plenty of point-spread action has already arrived on the Buffs, according to data analyst John Ewing.

“Colorado is the most bet team to cover in Week 1 at BetMGM,” Ewing tweeted.

And looking at the big picture, Ewing noted that Colorado is BetMGM’s largest liability to win the College Football Playoff. 

That said, the Buffaloes are still a distant +15000 (150/1) to hoist the championship trophy.

College Football Rocks on FOX

FOX Sports’ first Big Noon Kickoff of the season takes place in what will surely be an amped-up Morgantown. Host and unranked West Virginia hopes to pin an upset on No. 8 Penn State in the noon ET start.

Months ago, on April 25, DraftKings Sportsbook opened Penn State as a 12-point favorite. By Aug. 11, the Nittany Lions were down to -10, and the past few days brought moves to -9.5, -9, -8.5 and -8, before bottoming out at Penn State -7.5 early Tuesday.

The Nittany Lions are now -8. 

DraftKings’ midweek betting splits are interesting for this matchup, with Penn State taking 69% of point-spread wagers, but point-spread money running dead even.

Bettors Bullish on Bulldogs

No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia is arguably the marquee matchup on the college football Week 1 oddsboard. It’s another noon ET contest and a quasi-neutral-site tilt, at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Back in April, Caesars Sports opened this matchup at Georgia -13.5, and the line has mostly toggled between -13.5 and -14 ever since. Over the past few days, the Bulldogs made a couple of brief dips to -13, before rebounding to -13.5 (-120).

“This is obviously the biggest game of the week,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing a lot of Georgia action, so in this one, we do have a decision. We need Clemson to show up and lose by 13 or less.

“It’s probably gonna be our biggest decision Saturday.”

On-Campus Sharp Side

Speaking of Clemson-Georgia, college football betting expert Paul Stone has an opinion on the game — but it’s on the total, which is at a consensus 48.5. 

Stone likes the Under, providing a few supporting reasons:

• Clemson lacks a downfield passing game, and it has to replace the production of running back Will Shipley, a jack of all trades who generated more than 4,200 all-purpose yards in three seasons.
• Georgia returns Heisman hopeful Carson Beck at QB, but loses generational tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey.

“Clemson threw the ball deep (beyond 20 yards) on just 7.8% of last year’s pass attempts, ranking dead last in that category in the entire 133-team FBS,” Stone said. “The Tigers also only had 46 plays of 20 yards or more, in 13 games. Clemson and Georgia are both searching for field-stretching playmakers, plus it’s no secret that both these programs are known for playing stout defense.

“Points will be at a premium Saturday, in my opinion. I’m looking for a lower-scoring game.”

Stone also likes Colorado State +31.5 against fourth-ranked Texas.

“I think Texas is a playoff team this year. But the Longhorns will miss the defensive tackle tandem of Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat,” Stone said. “The Longhorns are a little vulnerable in the back of their defense, and I think they’ll get a steady dose of [Colorado State’s] Tory Horton, one of the top wide receivers in college football.

“Plus, Texas has a big game on deck next weekend at Michigan. It’s only natural that they might be looking ahead.”

Staying in the Lone Star State, where Stone lives, he likes road underdog No. 7 Notre Dame against No. 20 Texas A&M on Saturday night. Stone noted that Notre Dame will debut a new-look offensive line, while A&M will trot out new coach Mike Elko.

The Aggies have taken money of late to move out to -3.

“I really think Riley Leonard is a significant upgrade at quarterback for Notre Dame,” Stone said of the transfer from Duke.

Stone also noted that although it’s a small sample size, Notre Dame is 4-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in Marcus Freeman’s two seasons as coach.

Showdown in College Station

Keeping the focus on Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, as noted above, although the Fighting Irish have the higher ranking, they’re not favorites in College Station for a 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff.

Caesars Sports opened this game a pick ‘em months ago, and Notre Dame was briefly a 1-point favorite on Aug. 5. But the line has shifted four points since then, with the Aggies now at -3.

“The market was initially higher on Notre Dame than we were, but the market ended up coming our way,” Feazel said. “Sharps have been all over Texas A&M. We’re gonna see a lot of public action on Notre Dame, but the line isn’t going that way.

“This seems like a Pros vs. Joes game, and we’re gonna need the Aggies by 3 or more.”

Tigers vs. Trojans in Vegas

Week 1 includes a standalone Sunday night game, and it’s in Las Vegas no less, at Allegiant Stadium. No. 13 LSU meets No. 23 USC, with both teams moving on from stud quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, going to the Chicago Bears. Jayden Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy last season for LSU, went No. 2 overall to the Washington Commanders.

“This is one where, interestingly enough, we opened up higher on LSU, at -6.5. But the sharps have bet us down to LSU -4.5,” Feazel said of wiseguy action on underdog USC. “Both these teams are gonna look a lot different this year, as two of the most-impacted teams as far as losing players.”

Although Southern Cal fans have the far shorter trip, Feazel expects an LSU throng to take over the Vegas Strip, betting on the Tigers with fists full of cash. Plus, LSU is well-bet at Caesars in the Louisiana market.

“It’s not a big decision right now, but we’re gonna see a lot of LSU action heading into game time. There’s a very big LSU faithful that loves to back their Tigers. We’ll need the Trojans to cover +4.5.”

Furthermore, Caesars expects this to be a high-scoring affair. The total opened at 62 and topped out early Wednesday at 65. It’s now 64.5.

“I’m interested to see how this total reacts. It’s two of the best offensive schemes in college football, and two of the worst defenses,” Feazel said.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Some notable wagers have already started flowing in college football odds markets, mostly on the College Football Playoff championship winner and other futures. A few interesting bets at Caesars Sports:

• $15,000 on Georgia +300 to win the CFP. If the favored Bulldogs get their third title in four years, the bettor profits $45,000 ($60,000 total payout).
• $2,000 on Colorado +7500 to win the CFP. In the unlikely event that Coach Prime’s team wins it all, the bettor profits a hefty $150,000 ($152,000 total payout)
• $630 on Texas running back Jaydon Blue +20000 (200/1) to win the Heisman Trophy. It’s another unlikely outcome, but should it happen, the bettor profits $126,000 ($126,630 total payout)

Speaking of unlikely, a bettor tossed $200 on Army at 5000/1 odds to win the CFP, to profit $1 million. And another Caesars customer put $100 on South Florida to win the CFP, also at 5000/1 odds, to profit $500,000.

Much more likely than either of those, a customer at Hard Rock Sports in Florida threw five-figure support behind The U.

That’s a fair amount of faith to put in the Hurricanes. Which, as football season gets underway, serves as a good time for this reminder: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. 

Keep it reasonable, and enjoy the opening weekend of college football.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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