2024 College Football Week 6 action report: Unlikely CFP contenders emerge

If you’re looking to be as exhilarated by college football Week 6 odds as you were by Week 5 numbers, well, keep looking. 

Much as we’d like to have a game such as Georgia vs. Alabama every week, it’s not happening this week.

However, perhaps one of the smaller names in college football is worth your attention: No. 25 UNLV, turning heads for multiple reasons this season, hosts Syracuse at 9 p.m. ET Friday on FS1.

“Coach Barry Odom and UNLV were underrated, but the market is starting to catch up,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “There’s a lot of UNLV love going into Friday night.”

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Syracuse vs. UNLV and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.

Running with the Rebels

Prior to Week 5, big news dropped that jarred not only the UNLV program, but the entire college football landscape. The Rebels were off to a 3-0 start straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

However, starting quarterback Matt Sluka decided to leave the program and take a redshirt year, in a dispute over Name/Image/Likeness money.

How did the Rebels respond a couple of days later against Fresno State? New starter Hajj-Malik Williams helped UNLV — 2.5-point home favorites — hammer the Bulldogs 59-14. Williams threw for three touchdowns and ran for another.

“They lose their quarterback to an unforeseen circumstance, but the backup comes in, and they don’t skip a beat,” Feazel said.

So UNLV is now 4-0 SU and ATS, and ranked 25th in the nation. There’s only one other Group of 5 team ranked higher than the Rebels, and that’s fellow Mountain West outfit Boise State at No. 21.

And that matters. Keep in mind that this season, the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion gets into the College Football Playoff. 

At the moment, UNLV is a legit prospect for that slot.

But that’s a long way off. First, the Rebels have to take care of Syracuse.

“Our power rating had this game at UNLV -3. We opened -3.5, and we’re up to -6.5. It even touched -7 briefly,” Feazel said Wednesday night. “I think this game should be competitive and that the market moved a little too far.

“But we need Syracuse at this point. There’s big backing for the Rebels.”

College Football Rocks on FOX

Penn State (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS) hosts UCLA (1-3 SU/2-2 ATS) in Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX. The Nittany Lions opened as massive 27.5 points favorites, stretched to -28.5on  Monday and stood at -27.5 again on Wednesday night at DraftKings Sportsbook.

With all those points, there’s just as much interest in UCLA as in Penn State. The Bruins are attracting 51% of point-spread wagers, while 51% of point-spread money is on the Nittany Lions.

Early bettors are much more unified on the Over/Under. DraftKings’ total opened at 45, dipped to 44.5 early in the week, but then got bet as high as 47 by Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday night, the total was at 46.5, with 84% of tickets and 88% of money on the Over.

On-Campus Sharp Side 

College football betting expert Paul Stone is involved with what’s arguably the biggest game of Week 6: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 25 Texas A&M.

Contrary to the rankings gap, the Aggies (4-1 SU/1-4 ATS) are consensus 2-point home favorites vs. the Tigers (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS) in a noon ET Saturday start.

Both teams harbor hopes of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, but Mizzou is in a much better position to do so. With a loss already on its ledger, Texas A&M needs a victory to stay in the CFP conversation.

Stone views Missouri as slightly overrated and thinks the Aggies — behind redshirt freshman quarterback Marcel Reed — will send the Tigers back to the Show Me State with their first setback of 2024. Stone is playing A&M -2.

Part of Stone’s reasoning: Missouri had five defensive players selected in the NFL Draft. Three Tigers were taken among the first 100 selections: defensive end Darius Robinson (27th); cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (61st); and linebacker Ty Ron Hopper (91st).

That’s a lot of top-shelf talent to replace.

“I believe Missouri’s defense will start to show some vulnerabilities, as the Tigers take on one of the tougher teams on their schedule,” Stone said, noting this is also Mizzou’s first road game. “Missouri didn’t have it easy against either of two Power 4 opponents it’s played up to this point.

“Boston College led the Tigers by double digits midway through the second quarter, and Missouri needed double overtime to hold off Vanderbilt in its SEC opener.”

Missouri was a 17.5-point home favorite vs. Vandy and squeaked out a 30-27 double-OT win in Week 4. The Tigers had a bye last week.

College Football Quick Hitters

Feazel provided his insights on two other noteworthy matchups in college football Week 6 odds:

• No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 25 Texas A&M: Caesars is among several sportsbooks sitting at Aggies -2 on Wednesday night. A&M opened -2.5 Sunday afternoon and fell to -2/-1.5 within a few hours, then rebounded to -2 Monday. “Not a lot of action so far. Right now, we’re really seeing only Under money.” The total opened at 49.5 and is down to 48.5.
• No. 12 Ole Miss vs. South Carolina: Ole Miss is coming off a shocking 20-17 home loss to Kentucky. The Rebels, ranked No. 6 before the setback, were 15-point home favorites. Caesars opened the Rebels -9 on the road against the Gamecocks, and the line has ticked to -9.5 a couple of times. “We’re seeing action on Ole Miss at -9. But the Rebels are facing another difficult defense with South Carolina. It’s not an easy get-right game.”

I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie

Through Wednesday night, there are no reported major wagers on the college football Week 6 odds front. Trust me, there’ll be a few by Saturday.

But an interesting futures bet came in for one of the service academies.

Navy is now playing in the American Athletic Conference, a Group of 5 league. The Midshipmen are out to a 4-0 SU start (3-1 ATS). As noted above, the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion gets into the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Navy isn’t quite an astronomical long shot to win the national title, but isn’t far from it. A Caesars Sports customer took a flier anyway, putting $500 on the Midshipmen to win the national title, at +40000 odds (400/1).

If the unthinkable happens, that bettor will profit $2 million.

Making this even more interesting: The CFP field is selected on Dec. 8, after all the conference championship games are played. However, Navy still has to face Army — also in the AAC — on Dec. 14 in their annual rivalry game.

So, unlikely as it is, Navy could:

• Win the AAC Championship Game, finish as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion and get a CFP bid.
• Lose a week later to Army.
• Play in the first round of the CFP a week after that.

Taking it a step further: Army is also 4-0 SU at the moment (and 4-0 ATS). So Navy and Army could meet in the AAC championship game — with the winner possibly getting a CFP bid — then meet again a week later in the annual rivalry game.

Again, this sequence of events is quite unlikely. For starters, Boise State, UNLV and James Madison will have plenty to say about it.

But it’s great water-cooler talk. Perhaps Air Force throws a wrench into things by upsetting Navy this week. The Falcons are 10-point home underdogs in the high altitude of Colorado Springs.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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