Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Guess which conference is dominating the conversation in college football Week 8 odds?
If you chose the SEC, then step right up and collect your prize.
Specifically, the Georgia Bulldogs vs. the Texas Longhorns. That is the marquee matchup this week. On Wednesday, sharp bettors solidly weighed in on the favored Longhorns, moving the spread from Texas -3.5 to -5.5.
“It certainly isn’t square money that is moving a football game on a Wednesday,” Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson said.
Texas ultimately backed up a tick to -5 at Circa and other sportsbooks, on intriguing early action for the Game of the Week.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Georgia vs. Texas and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.
Moving On Up
Activity on top-ranked Texas ramped up in just a five-minute window on Wednesday. It started at about 1:50 p.m. ET, with sharp action landing on Texas -3.5. Then more sharp play at Texas -4/-5, leading Circa Sports to briefly go to -5.5.
By 1:55 p.m. ET, it settled down with Texas a consensus 5-point favorite vs. No. 5 Georgia. Caesars Sports saw some of that sharp activity, too.
“It looks like a respected group came in to push this line out,” Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said, noting his shop went from Texas -3.5 to -5. “We’ve seen how impressive Texas has been, and on the flip side, how unimpressive Georgia has been.
“I’m not super surprised to see Texas getting some respect in the marketplace.”
The Longhorns are 6-0 straight up (SU) and 5-1 against the spread (ATS), winning every game in blowout fashion. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU but just 1-5 ATS, failing to cover the spread in their last five games.
Feazel thinks that will lead the public betting masses to also weigh in on Texas leading up to Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“The expectation is that Texas is the No. 1 team in the country and wants to prove it. And bettors will certainly be betting that way as we get closer to game time,” Feazel said.
Joel Klatt: ‘Texas can win the National Championship with Arch Manning or Quinn Ewers’
College Football Rocks On FOX
This week’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX heads to the Hoosier State for Nebraska vs. Indiana. Caesars Sports opened Indiana -3 and quickly got to -5, then -5.5/-6 on Sunday. On Wednesday night, the 16th-ranked Hoosiers stood at -6.5 (-115) for this noon ET Saturday kickoff.
Indiana is rolling this season at 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS, while Nebraska is solid at 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS.
“This is definitely a big game here. Indiana is the James Madison of the Midwest. All Curt Cignetti does is win,” Feazel said of the first-year Hoosiers coach, who left James Madison for the Indiana job. “It’s a big price movement and really big respect for Indiana in this spot, especially against a talented Nebraska team.
“The betting public is taking Indiana -6.5 or taking Nebraska on the moneyline. So we’re gonna need Indiana to win and not cover.”
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone had Iowa -3 vs. Washington last week, and the Hawkeyes rolled 40-16. This week, he’s looking at an SEC contest, but not Georgia vs. Texas, nor Alabama vs. Tennessee.
Rather, Stone is involved with No. 14 Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State, at 4:15 p.m. ET Saturday.
The Aggies (5-1 SU/2-4 SU) have won five in a row since dropping their opener against Notre Dame. Conversely, Mississippi State is 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS and has struggled under first-year coach Jeff Lebby.
But Stone felt the Bulldogs showed signs of life in their last two games. Yes, they lost at Texas 35-13, but they were 37.5-point underdogs in that Week 5 game. After a Week 6 bye, Mississippi State at least hung in the same area code as Georgia in a 41-31 loss as a 34-point road underdog.
Stone recommends taking 15.5-point home ‘dog Mississippi State to keep it within two touchdowns against Texas A&M.
“It’s difficult for college football teams to bring the same amount of focus and energy week-after-week,” Stone said. “Texas A&M has a big home game on deck against LSU. So this is a natural spot for the Aggies to perhaps let off the accelerator a little bit and exhale.
“Mississippi State is improving and still battling. I think this game could be closer than expected.”
Oregon & Ohio State in Joel Klatt’s top 5 teams in the Big Ten
College Football Quick Hitters
As alluded to above, No. 7 Alabama (5-1 SU/3-3 ATS) meets No. 11 Tennessee (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS) in Knoxville, at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Like Georgia-Texas — and, for that matter, LSU-Arkansas — it’s another SEC clash that will have significant ramifications in College Football Playoff odds.
Caesars Sports opened the Crimson Tide -2 and went to -2.5 in fairly short order on Sunday. On Monday, the spread climbed to ‘Bama -3.
“I think Tennessee is outclassed in this one. Money is gonna come in on Alabama,” Feazel said. “We’re gonna need Tennessee. We’ll certainly be Volunteer fans on Saturday.”
One more from Feazel, shifting gears to a key ACC matchup:
- No. 6 Miami vs. Louisville: The Hurricanes (6-0 SU/3-3 ATS) toggled between -4.5/-4 early in the week for a noon ET Saturday clash with the Cardinals (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS). On Monday night, the line went to ‘Canes -5, where it remained midweek. “Louisville is not living up to expectations. And right now, a lot of people are not over-impressed with Miami. But they’re betting Miami on the spread and Louisville on the moneyline.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
By late Wednesday night, no six-figure plays had landed on college football Week 8 odds. But Caesars Sports reported a couple noteworthy five-figure wagers, including on the Game of the Week:
- $66,000 Georgia +3.5 vs. Texas. To win $60,000 (total payout $126,000).
- $12,000 Army -15.5 (-115) vs. East Carolina. To win $10,435 (total payout $22,435).
That Bulldogs backer would probably like a do-over, since Georgia +5 is now available.
In Army’s case, the bettor at least got the better of the number, though not the best. The Black Knights, who are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS, opened as 17.5-point home favorites for a noon ET Saturday kick.
Army fell as low as -15 on Monday night. Then the bettor got in at -15.5, and the Knights stood at -16 midweek.
We’ll report back after the weekend on how things went for these two bettors and many more. Enjoy your huge college football Saturday.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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