2024 March Madness first-round betting trends, NCAA Tournament odds

It’s the most wonderful time of year, as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, affectionately known as “March Madness” to most, starts this week.

This will be the 85th edition of the tournament and the 39th since expanding to 64 teams in 1985. Given the numerous upsets over the years, FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into the numbers to find you the best first-round and tournament betting trends.

We dissected how teams performed against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) to give you the information needed to make some successful wagers throughout the first week.

Let’s dive in.

Underdogs have a slight edge against the spread (ATS) in the Round of 64

If it feels like underdogs have done well in the first round in recent years, it’s because they have — especially from a gambling perspective. Since 2015, they’ve gone a whopping 136-115-2 ATS (54.2%). Sixty-seven of those underdogs actually won their respective games straight up (SU), which is significant considering the number of mid-majors and small programs that compete.

Below, we’ve outlined how underdogs have performed historically since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

• Underdogs are 597-577-24 ATS (50.9%) and 300-898 SU (25%) in the Round of 64 all-time.
• Double-digit underdogs are 242-232-6 ATS (51.1%) and 36-444 SU (7.5%) in the Round of 64 all-time.
• Currently, the only 20-plus-point spreads in the Round of 64 feature Arizona (-20.5) vs. Long Beach State and Houston (-24.5) vs. Longwood.Since the tourney expanded in 1985, this will be the second-fewest 20-plus-point spreads in the Round of 64.
• Since the tourney expanded in 1985, this will be the second-fewest 20-plus-point spreads in the Round of 64.

Specific seed vs. seed matchups in Round of 64

Expanding a bit more on the first round, here is a breakdown of some interesting trends with double-digit seeds. You might be surprised at how successful the lower seeds have been in recent years: 

• A 12-seed has won 53 first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
• In 11 of the past 15 tournaments, at least one 13-seed has beaten a No. 4 seed.
• In five of the past 11 tournaments, a No. 14 seed has beaten a No. 3 seed; however, only one No. 14 seed has defeated a No. 3 seed in the last five tournaments (2021 Abilene Christian defeated Texas).
• In six of the past 11 NCAA tournaments, a 15-seed has beaten a 2-seed.
• Double-digit seeds are 518-524-21 ATS (49.7%) and 237-826 SU (22.3%) in the Round of 64 since 1985.Excludes the Oregon-VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.
• Excludes the Oregon-VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.

That being said, it would be unfair not to point out some of the glaring losing streaks that many of the small conferences hold, as these are the schools that usually obtain these double-digit seeds. 

• Horizon League schools are 0-11 in the Round of 64 since 2012, with the last win coming from Butler (now in the Big East) in 2011.14th-seeded Oakland, the lone Horizon League team in this year’s tournament, faces Kentucky, the No. 3 seed in the South Region.
• 14th-seeded Oakland, the lone Horizon League team in this year’s tournament, faces Kentucky, the No. 3 seed in the South Region.
• Northeast Conference schools are 1-31 all-time in the Round of 64 and 3-6 in the First Four.Last year, Fairleigh Dickinson became the lone Northeast Conference school to win the Round of 64; this year Wagner will represent the conference.
• Last year, Fairleigh Dickinson became the lone Northeast Conference school to win the Round of 64; this year Wagner will represent the conference.
• Colonial Athletic schools are 0-10 in the Round of 64 since 2013, with the last win coming from VCU (now in the Atlantic 10) in 2012.The 13th-seeded Charleston Cougars are the lone Colonial Athletic team in the field this year, facing fourth-seeded Alabama.
• The 13th-seeded Charleston Cougars are the lone Colonial Athletic team in the field this year, facing fourth-seeded Alabama.
• Big South schools are 1-27 in the Round of 64, with the lone win coming from Winthrop in 2007.The lone Big South school in this year’s tournament is 16th-seeded Longwood, which takes on first-seeded Houston.
• The lone Big South school in this year’s tournament is 16th-seeded Longwood, which takes on first-seeded Houston.

Bet on these coaches to cover in the Round of 64

It could be argued that coaching matters more in college basketball than in any other sport, and that notion is accentuated even more in the tournament. There are four coaches in this year’s tourney who rank in the top 20 all-time in cover rate for Round of 64 games (10-game minimum):

• Matt Painter: 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in the Round of 64, the second-best of any coach all-time (10 games minimum). No. 1 Purdue takes on the winner of 16th-seeded Montana State and Grambling State, looking to avenge their loss against Fairleigh Dickinson last year — the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history.
• Dana Altman: 8-4-2 ATS (66.7%) in the Round of 64, the fifth-best of any coach all-time (10 games minimum). No. 11 Oregon will take on No. 6 South Carolina as 1.5-point underdogs, the Ducks’ first tournament appearance since 2021.
• Bill Self: 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) in the Round of 64, the eighth-best all-time (10 games minimum). The No. 4 Jayhawks will take on 13th-seeded Samford as 8.5-point favorites despite injury concerns regarding Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr.
• Scott Drew, Greg McDermott: both are 6-5 ATS (54.5%) in the Round of 64, tied for the 20th-best among all coaches all-time(10 games minimum). Drew will lead Baylor against Colgate as 13.5-point favorites, while McDermott will lead Creighton against Akron; both of these matchups are No. 4 vs No. 13 games.

No. 1 seeds dominate in the Round of 64 AND in the title game

While we’ve focused on the Round of 64, we also wanted to give you a quick overview of what characteristics national champions display.

Since seeding began in 1979, 26 No. 1 seeds have won 26 national championships, the most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds have combined for just 18 titles. That means 59.1% of national champions since 1979 were top seeds. In fact, five of the past six national title winners and 12 of the past 16 champions were No. 1 seeds.

In the Round of 64, they’re almost perfect, going a whopping 150-2 SU (98.7%) and 77-73-2 ATS (51.3%) since 1985. The only 16-seeds to defeat a top seed are UMBC, who took down Virginia in the 2019 tournament, and last year’s Fairleigh Dickinson team against Purdue, as mentioned earlier.

Other notable trends

• Michigan State is currently a one-point favorite against Mississippi State; Tom Izzo is 16-10 ATS (61.5%) and 17-9 (65.4%) in tournament games where the spread is three or less in either direction.
• North Carolina will play Wagner in Charlotte, N.C.; the Tar Heels are 29-20-1 ATS (59.2%) and 39-11 (78%) since 2008 when playing an NCAA Tournament game in their home state.
• Dana Altman is 16-5 ATS (76.2%) and 14-7 SU (66.7%) with Oregon in the tournament; when an underdog, he is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 6-6 SU with Oregon (Ducks are currently 1.5-point underdogs vs South Carolina).
• Texas is 3-11-2 ATS (21.4%) and 6-10 SU (37.5%) in the tournament since 2010.
• Gonzaga is 17-10 ATS (63%) and 14-13 SU (51.9%) in the tournament when playing as a No. 5 or worse (the Zags enter the tournament as a No. 5 seed).
• Iowa State entered the season unranked, and is now a No. 2 seed in the tournament and in the AP top 10; of the 36 teams in this situation since 1985, none of them reached the Final Four.

KenPom trends

KenPom has become one of the most respected college basketball analytical tools since its public debut in 2002. The site takes into account various metrics to measure the offensive and defensive efficiencies of every Division I basketball team. Looking at the pre-tournament KenPom data, there are a few interesting trends.

Firstly, every national champion since 2001 has ranked in the top 44 of adjusted defensive efficiency. Twenty-one of those 22 title winners in that span also ranked in the top 21 of adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. 

The lone exception was UConn in 2014, which ranked 57th in the offensive category and 19th on defense. So, using the 2024 pre-tournament KenPom rankings, below are the eight teams that fit the bill of ranking in the top 21 of offense and top 44 in defense — with odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook:

UConn +370 to win the title (bet $10 to win $37)

Houston +550 to win the title (bet $10 to win $55)

Purdue +700 to win title (bet $10 to win $70)

Arizona +1200 to win title (bet $10 to win $120)

Auburn +2200 to win title (bet $10 to win $220)

Creighton +2500 to win the title (bet $10 to win $250)

Marquette +2500 to win title (bet $10 to win $250)

Duke +3000 to win title (bet $10 to win $300)

Again, this isn’t a strict measure, as teams can get hot — like the 2014 Huskies mentioned above. But it is a good indicator of which teams might be worth a title bet prior to the tournament starting. 

UConn is the current favorite to win it all (+370), but it’s worth noting that the last 10 title winners all had odds greater than +450. Kentucky in 2012 was the last time to have shorter odds entering the first round, closing at +185 before their first game.

It’s also worth noting that all 20 national champions in the KenPom era (since 2002) were ranked in the top 25 of overall adjusted efficiency. All eight of the teams above rank inside in the top 12 of this year’s pre-tournament KenPom data. 

So who are you betting on?

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