2024 MLB Odds: Ben Verlander’s Over/Under win total picks for all 30 teams

MLB’s 2024 Opening Day is just three weeks away — two if you count the Dodgers-Padres series in Korea. For our betting friends, it’s time to place those futures wagers in for the year.

One of the most common bets made this time of year is season win total Over/Unders, so I’ve gone ahead and made picks for each team using the latest lines from FanDuel Sportsbook. I cover every single team, from the loaded Los Angeles Dodgers to the faltering Oakland Athletics. I’ve also expanded on my five favorite Over bets and five favorite Under bets. 

Something to keep in mind is that, for the second year in a row, all 30 teams will play each other over the course of the season. As sportsbooks adjust to that reality, I believe Unders remain a sharper play because teams have to travel more and face a more balanced schedule. That played out last year as several teams finished well below projected win totals, and I think it will again this year.

Let’s dive in!

(Editor’s note: Totals listed are FanDuel Sportsbook totals as of Tuesday)

American League East

New York Yankees: OVER 94.5 wins

That number is a big jump, especially when considering that the Yankees won only 82 games last year. But there are plenty of reasons to expect the Yankees to go back to their “Evil Empire” ways in 2024. I think Juan Soto will be an MVP candidate, Alex Verdugo will be a quality upgrade in left field and Marcus Stroman will be a great addition to the pitching staff.

But the biggest key to a 2024 Yankees turnaround is the health of their incumbent stars. Aaron Judge missed two months with a toe injury that I don’t think was fully healed when he returned — a healthy Judge is arguably the best hitter in baseball. Anthony Rizzo played for months with undiagnosed concussion symptoms last season and is surely primed for a bounce back. Carlos Rodón, who missed most of his first season in pinstripes with multiple injuries and struggled when he was on the mound, looked great in his spring training debut. A healthy Rodón combined with defending Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is a scary one-two punch atop New York’s rotation, as is the tandem of Soto and Judge in the lineup. 

The Yankees obviously need to stay healthy to contend, but so do most MLB teams. I like them, health permitting, to be a World Series contender in 2024.

Baltimore Orioles: OVER 89.5 wins

Toronto Blue Jays: UNDER 87.5 wins

Tampa Bay Rays: OVER 84.5 wins

Boston Red Sox: UNDER 77.5 wins

The Red Sox won 78 games last year, and all we have heard since then is how miserable of an offseason they have had. Their biggest addition, Lucas Giolito, will miss Opening Day and possibly the entire season due to an elbow injury he appeared to have suffered last week. I already had my doubts that Giolito, as much as I like him as a player and person, would be enough to significantly elevate a last-place team. No disrespect to Tyler O’Neill, Vaughn Grissom and Liam Hendriks, but Boston’s other newcomers definitely do not fit that description, either. 

The Red Sox could opt to make a late move for pitching in the wake of Giolito’s injury. Maybe they finally decide to splurge on a Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, and that would make me reconsider this pick. But right now, the front office has not done nearly enough to transform last season’s disappointing team.

American League Central

Minnesota Twins: OVER 87.5 wins

Detroit Tigers: OVER 79.5 wins

Cleveland Guardians: UNDER 79.5 wins

Kansas City Royals: OVER 73.5 wins

Chicago White Sox: UNDER 63.5 wins

American League West

Houston Astros: UNDER 93.5 wins

Texas Rangers: OVER 88.5 wins

Yes, the Astros and Mariners are still in that division and not going anywhere, so 89 wins might be a high number, but hey, this team won 90 games and the World Series last year. They only made minor moves this offseason and will most likely lose postseason hero Jordan Montgomery, but I believe they found their stride in last year’s playoffs. They will enter next season with well-earned confidence as reigning World Series champions and get a full year of star prospect Evan Carter in the big leagues. 

I think Adolis García’s career changed in that ALCS MVP performance against the Astros last October and he will continue on his ascent this year. This team learned a lot about itself in the 2023 playoffs, and those lessons will propel it further in 2024.

Seattle Mariners: UNDER 87.5 wins

Los Angeles Angels: OVER 72.5 wins

Oakland Athletics: UNDER 57.5 wins

This is the lowest win total FanDuel has among all 30 MLB teams. It’s still way too high. I’ll take the under here in a heartbeat. The A’s are not going to win 58 games. This team is the definition of a trainwreck that still has not completely solidified its long-term stadium plans. The A’s don’t have any long-term roster plans, either, especially since that’s tough to do when you’re still not entirely sure what city you will be playing in five years from now. Nobody wants to go to a team that does not have a true home. 

The vibes in Oakland are about as bad as it gets for an MLB team. Their 2024 season will be another nightmare, and their 2025 and 2026 seasons likely will be, as well. It’s not the players’ fault, either — who wants to give their all for that type of franchise?

National League East

Atlanta Braves: UNDER 101.5 wins

The Braves won 104 games last year and return every star player. The reason I have them under a lower total here has less to do with the talent on their roster and more to do with their division. The NL East is no cakewalk, and winning 102 games will be a slog. 

I think the Phillies will be dangerous. I think the Mets will be better after somewhat bottoming out in 2023. The Marlins have a good group of young players that could easily improve upon last year’s wild-card berth. Atlanta will be great again, especially if its bet on Chris Sale to rebound works out. I would even pick the Braves to win another division title, but not to win 102 games. Give me the under.

Philadelphia Phillies: UNDER 89.5 wins

New York Mets: OVER 80.5 wins

Miami Marlins: OVER 77.5 wins

Washington Nationals: UNDER 66.5 wins

I’m excited about some of Washington’s young talent, but a lot of what I said about the Braves and this divison being brutal applies here. This roster is years away from contending and conducted its offseason accordingly, making zero needle-moving additions. The Nationals still stink, and in that rough division, that fact will cost them.

National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals: UNDER 85.5 wins

This team won 71 games last year. I don’t think they are that bad, and I think their disastrous 2023 was a culmination of several things. St. Louis revamped its rotation by adding a bunch of veterans, but the problem with veterans is, well, they’re old. We are already seeing some troubling signs with prized free-agent signing Sonny Gray exiting his latest spring training start due to a hamstring issue. We saw the good and bad with Lance Lynn last year.

I think the Cardinals have the most talented lineup in their division, as they should with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado still there. I just don’t think their pitching will hold up, especially in a division where the Cubs, Reds and Pirates have all improved from last year. The NL Central will be a more competitive division in 2024, and that’s bad news for St. Louis.

Chicago Cubs: OVER 84.5 wins

I’m not sure the Cubs are the division favorites many others are treating them as (more on that in a moment), but I do think they are a playoff contender. Yes, they lost Marcus Stroman, but they got Cody Bellinger back, added Shōta Imanaga to provide strong rotation depth behind Justin Steele, and took advantage of the Dodgers’ roster crunch to add a talented young bat in Michael Busch. The Cubs also added Hector Neris to form a really good back end of the bullpen with Adbert Alzolay.

I also believe that Pete Crow-Armstrong has Rookie of the Year potential and can bolster the Cubs’ outfield. Chicago will be better than last year’s 83-win team and again compete for the playoffs.

Cincinnati Reds: OVER 81.5 wins

This is one of the most confusing totals to me, and seems like a no-brainer pick to go over the number. The Reds won 82 games in 2023, and you’re telling me they won’t be better in 2024? I think they easily have the best starting rotation in the NL Central, with Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft leading the way. Then you have all those talented 20-something hitters in the lineup, led by Elly De La Cruz. Then they signed some solid veterans, like Jeimer Candelario and Frankie Montas, to round out the batting order and starting rotation, respectively. 

I think the Reds are due for a massive step forward this season. In fact, they already started taking that step last year when De La Cruz debuted and further extended the lineup alongside Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. All of Cincinnati’s young core now has at least one season under its belt.

Milwaukee Brewers: UNDER 77.5 wins

Pittsburgh Pirates: OVER 75.5 wins

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers: OVER 103.5 wins

It’s not just the additions of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Teoscar Hernández. The Dodgers not only won 100 games last year with a comparatively less talented roster, they did so while navigating several key pitching injuries. I think the Dodgers are poised to be the best regular-season team in baseball this season. Don’t sleep on Hernández’s ability to lengthen Los Angeles’s lineup — or Walker Buehler’s ability to make the starting rotation dangerous once he’s unleashed. 

The Dodgers’ depth is also extremely impressive. Miguel Rojas is a fine defensive shortstop, but now the Dodgers get Gavin Lux back after he tore his ACL in spring training last year to pair in the middle infield with some guy named Mookie Betts. Then, in looking around the NL West, I still don’t think the Giants have vastly improved, the Padres are taking a step back, and the Rockies are, well, the Rockies. Aside from the Diamondbacks, I don’t think the Dodgers will face much stiff competition to rack up a lot of division wins. They transformed their pitching staff and have assembled one of the best lineups we’ve ever seen. The Dodgers will win at least 104 games this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: OVER 83.5 wins

San Francisco Giants: OVER 82.5 wins

San Diego Padres: OVER 81.5 wins

Colorado Rockies: OVER 59.5 wins

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Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the “Flippin’ Bats” podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.

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