Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
As the MLB season heads into its second half, there’s no shortage of compelling betting storylines. Among them: The stunning rise of Pittsburgh Pirates rookie pitcher Paul Skenes.
“The Skenes story is amazing, and I think that’ll continue to keep going,” Caesars Sports lead MLB trader Eric Biggio said.
Great as the Skenes story is, it doesn’t quite rank at the top of Biggio’s list.
With games resuming Friday, Biggio hit on his top three MLB betting stories to watch for in the second half of the season.
No. 1: Yankees vs Orioles
Back in mid-June, the New York Yankees had the best record in baseball at 50-22. New York was a solid favorite to win the AL East, in the -400 range, and was No. 2 in odds to win the World Series.
But the Pinstripes then went on a 6-17 slide. That’s allowed the Baltimore Orioles (58-38) to overtake New York (58-40) atop the AL East. The Yankees are now slim -115 favorites in the division, with the Orioles right behind at -110.
At the moment, that means it would take a $115 bet on New York to win $100 ($215 total payout), and a $110 bet on Baltimore to win $100 ($210 total payout).
Biggio sees this two-horse race continuing.
“The No. 1 story for me is gonna be the battle between the Yankees and the Orioles in the AL East. I think it’s gonna come down to the wire,” Biggio said.
The Yankees benefit from being in a huge media market, which translates to a huge betting market. Yet Baltimore is proving plenty popular with the public betting masses across the country.
“There’s a huge customer base that’s betting the Yankees. But the public has definitely been on Baltimore,” Biggio said. “Baltimore is the liability for us, not only in the AL East, but to win the pennant and to win the World Series.”
The Orioles are the +675 fourth choice in Caesars’ World Series odds, right behind the Yankees at +525. The Los Angeles Dodgers remain favorites at +320, followed by the Philadelphia Phillies (+375).
No. 2: Judge and Ohtani Dominance
If odds are any indication — and they are — Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are well on their way to the AL and NL MVP awards, respectively.
“My No. 2 is if anybody can challenge Ohtani or Judge for the MVP trophies,” Biggio said.
Months ago, Judge was the +750 third choice in Caesars’ AL MVP odds. If you’d put a hundred bucks on Judge, then you’d be in position to win $750 ($850 total payout).
Seattle Mariners star Julio Rodriguez was the +450 favorite, followed by Judge’s teammate Juan Soto at +500. Now, Judge is in control as the -400 favorite to win AL MVP. He’s hitting .306 while leading all of MLB in home runs (34) and RBIs (85).
“He had a poor start to the year, but then he just got red-hot. With every home run, there were more tickets bet on Judge,” Michaelson said.
You certainly don’t want to bet on Judge at this point. It would take a $400 wager to clear $100 profit ($500 total payout). However, enough early action landed on the New York Yankees slugger to make him a liability at Caesars.
“We don’t need Judge to win,” Biggio said, while alluding to another popular Judge betting market. “Will he hit 60 home runs? That’ll be another point of interest.”
Caesars has the Over/Under on Judge home runs at 59.5. Under is a -400 favorite ($400 bet to win $100; $500 total payout), while Over is a +300 underdog ($100 bet to win $300; $400 total payout).
RELATED: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge on pace to make history
Like Judge, Ohtani is now the -400 favorite in NL MVP odds. The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar opened as the +900 fifth choice at Caesars. But between his level of play and injuries to preseason favorite Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman — both teammates of Ohtani — and to Atlanta Braves standout Ronald Acuna Jr., Ohtani is the clear choice to win.
Ohtani is hitting .316 with 29 homers, while taking the season off from pitching after having elbow surgery last September.
Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper is the only player within shouting distance of Ohtani. Harper is the +400 second choice in odds to win NL MVP.
“Ohtani is a small liability. He’s the prohibitive favorite now, so the bettors aren’t taking him that much.”
Ohtani is going for his third MVP award in four seasons, having won AL MVP with the Los Angeles Angels in 2021 and 2023.
Insane for Skenes
In the preseason, Skenes wasn’t exactly an afterthought in NL Rookie of the Year odds but neither was he among the favorites. Caesars Sports had the Pirates pitcher at +3000, a price people would crawl over glass for today.
For those prescient enough to get on board early, a $100 bet would be well on its way to $3,000 profit ($3,100 total payout). Now, Skenes is 6-0 with a tidy 1.90 ERA across 11 starts, and he’s a massive -1300 favorite to win the NL Rookie honor. That means it takes a $1,300 bet to win $100 ($1,400 total payout).
And Skenes wasn’t even in the majors for the first five weeks of the season, getting called up May 8.
“As soon as news got out that the Pirates were calling him up, we started to see more bets. We took action from +3000 on down,” Biggio said.
RELATED: Paul Skenes Cy Young odds surging
Further, Skenes has stunningly played his way into the AL Cy Young odds market.
“For Cy Young, we put him up in May, but more from public interest than from the thought that he would do anything,” Biggio said. “We went up at +9000 (90/1), and he’s +375 now, behind only Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler.”
Sale, with the Atlanta Braves, is the even-money favorite (+100), followed closely by the Philadelphia Phillies’ Wheeler at +170. But those two aren’t the story.
“There’s been consistent drops in odds and consistent action on Skenes. Almost every other bet is on him,” Biggio said. “We’ll lose money to Skenes in both Cy Young and Rookie of the Year. It’s not a big loss to Rookie of the Year. But Cy Young would be a little more of a stinger.
“People have gotten on Skenes for a reason.”
Biggio said the most notable long-shot bet on Skenes in Cy Young odds is a modest $100 at +9000. If the 22-year-old heat-thrower can keep it up, that bettor could be looking at $9,000 in profit. Not a bad return on investment.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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