By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
We’re a couple of weeks away from Memorial Day, and to many, that is the first checkpoint of what is a long Major League Baseball season.
With well over two thirds of the season still yet to be played, the races for awards are still wide open, even if it doesn’t feel that way.
If you think someone off to a slow start doesn’t have time to catch up, think again!
In 2021, Bryce Harper was 30-1 as late as August to win the MVP, which he did.
That same year, Robbie Ray was 150-1 to win AL Cy Young at the All Star break, an award he ended up taking home.
Heck, Just this past year in the NFL, Lamar Jackson was 15-1 to win MVP with just a few weeks to go, meanwhile Kevin Stefanski was as high as 80-1 to win coach of the year in mid-December, and Joe Flacco was well over 100-1 to win Comeback Player of the year late as well.
You get the idea — finishing strong matters more to the voters than starting off hot.
With that in mind, is there a bet available worth jumping in on?
Juan Soto is the favorite to win the AL MVP, and rightfully so considering his torrid start.
However, I think there’s value in his teammate, Aaron Judge, at 16-1.
Judge has had a slow start, and would not currently warrant consideration, but there are well over 100 games to turn things around.
Despite the poor April, Judge does have 10 home runs and is only three behind the league leader, Kyle Tucker.
Considering Judge’s recent track record, an extended hot streak is coming, and will put Judge in the mix for MVP when it happens.
In 2022 and 2023, Judge hit a combined 99 home runs in just over 900 at bats, a staggering pace that, if regained, could get him into the 50s for a home run total.
If Judge can stay healthy, he’s going to have a legitimate shot of leading the league in home runs once again, and perhaps he’s not going to match his incredible 62 number from 2022, but if he can get 50+ he’s going to garner MVP support, especially considering the Yankees are a first-place team that is going to flirt with 100 wins.
We’ve seen in baseball, and in other sports, long shots get home in these awards — and what happens early is not nearly as important as what happens late.
Judge was 6-1 to win MVP when the season started. At 16-1, this is now a bargain.
Despite Judge’s April slump, the verdict is in — this MVP flier is worth a bet!
PICK: Aaron Judge (+1600) to win AL MVP
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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