Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
When favorites go 10-3 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS) on an NFL Sunday, that’s usually a good sign for the public betting masses.
However, a couple of key underdogs came through in NFL Week 15 odds, which kept bettors from making it a runaway day.
“The Bills and Buccaneers were big needs in the late games. Bills outright was a terrific result for us,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Bills and Bucs Bark as ‘Dogs
Josh Allen and the Bills were 2.5-point road underdogs against the Lions, who were on an 11-game win streak. But in a football game-turned-track meet, Buffalo got out to a 14-0 lead and maintained a two-score advantage most of the way.
The Bills ultimately won 48-42.
Tampa Bay was a 3-point underdog at the Los Angeles Chargers and threw a 27-0 second-half shutout to win 40-17. Prior to both games, Murray was begging for an outright win after favorites went 6-1 straight up in Sunday’s early window.
“We want the Bills and the Bucs. Give me an underdog,” Murray said.
The SuperBook got both.
“The late-window results were solid, with Buffalo and Tampa both winning as small ‘dogs,” Murray added Sunday evening. “We are going to give some back on the Packers, but I can’t complain.”
Green Bay’s 30-13 win as 3-point road favorites vs. Seattle on Sunday night was a good result for the recreational bettors.
Interestingly, Buffalo’s modest upset wasn’t universally acclaimed. In the sportsbook world, there’s often a pocket or two — or perhaps a region — that needs a different result.
For Bills-Lions, BetMGM Nevada was that pocket.
“We got destroyed. The Bills were a big public ‘dog today,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills hold Jared Goff, Detroit Lions in chaotic thriller
Saved by the Saints
The Washington Commanders were quite popular nationwide in Week 15 NFL odds. BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said action was lopsided on the Commanders, making the New Orleans Saints one of the day’s bigger needs.
The Saints were 7.5-point home underdogs and nearly won the game outright. New Orleans got a TD on the final play of regulation, then went for the 2-point conversion and the win.
The attempt failed, and New Orleans lost 20-19. Still, the Saints covered the spread.
“The Saints covering was good. If they’d won the thing outright, it would’ve been a thing of beauty,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
Joe Brennan Jr., executive chair for Prime Sportsbook, echoed those sentiments.
“Everyone [was] betting the Commanders like they [had] Biff’s Almanac,” Brennan said, making a Back to the Future II reference. “Pros, Joes and Schmoes [were] all holding Washington tickets.”
Public Policy
The Kansas City Chiefs, much maligned for a bundle of close wins and being unable to cover the spread, finally got an easy victory and covered the number. So that was a win-win for the betting public.
K.C. beat Cleveland 21-7 as a 4-point road favorite. At BetMGM, the Chiefs took more point-spread tickets and money than any other team on Sunday.
The Cincinnati Bengals were also a popular play at BetMGM, as 6-point road favorites vs. the Tennessee Titans. Cincy, which had the third-most spread tickets and second-most spread money, got it done for the public with a 37-27 victory.
On the flip side: Detroit was No. 2 in spread tickets and No. 3 in spread money at BetMGM. As noted above, the Lions lost outright as 2.5-point home favorites vs. Buffalo.
And in the day’s second-biggest game, the Pittsburgh Steelers were a trendy underdog at multiple sportsbooks, getting a lot of public support on the road vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. Pittsburgh was a 5.5-point underdog and couldn’t deliver for bettors in a 27-13 loss.
“We got a lot of money on Pittsburgh,” Murray said.
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On Campus
Army and Navy played the final game of the regular season on Saturday, on a neutral field in the Washington Commanders’ stadium.
At the South Point sportsbook, Army closed as a 6.5-point favorite. But underdog Navy never trailed while rolling to a 31-13 victory, in another good outcome for the South Point.
“That was a great game for us. The customers pounded Army. That was a terrific result,” Andrews said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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