Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
It didn’t take long for a major wager to settle up in the NFL Week 2 odds market.
In fact, we knew the result by the end of the Thursday night game.
“We took a larger sharp bet on the Dolphins on Sunday night: $110,000 on Dolphins -1.5,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Caesars needed the road underdog Bills on Thursday night, and it got ’em, as Buffalo made a statement with a 31-10 win.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on the weekend ahead, as we dive into this week’s NFL betting nuggets.
No Mostert, No Problem?
Caesars Sports opened the Dolphins -1.5, and that aforementioned big bet quickly took the line to -2 on Sunday night. The line had been stable at Miami -2.5 since early Wednesday morning.
And that was despite news coming later on Wednesday morning that Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (chest) wouldn’t play Thursday night.
“I think the Mostert news was surprising to us,” Feazel said prior to the game, before explaining why the line remained Miami -2.5. “It really has to do with the Bills’ defensive performance vs. Arizona.”
In Week 1, Buffalo let the visiting Cardinals bolt out to a 17-3 lead. The Bills ultimately held on for a 34-28 win but didn’t cover as 6.5-point home favorites.
Feazel hoped Buffalo’s defense would show out better vs. Miami, and it did.
“With that big bet, we’ll need the Bills. But the public side looks like the Bills, and the sharp side is the Dolphins,” he said before the game.
What is at stake for Tua Tagovailoa vs. Bills on TNF?
NFL Rocks On FOX
In the 1 p.m. ET window on Sunday, FOX gets a matchup of playoff teams from last season. In fact, it’s a rematch of an NFC divisional round game, with the public darling Detroit Lions hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Detroit was a 6-point favorite and just barely covered in a 31-24 win over Tampa in that playoff tilt. Bettors and oddsmakers already like the Lions a little bit more this time around.
The Lions opened -6.5 (-115) early Monday at Caesars, got to -7 by Monday afternoon and stood at -7.5 on Wednesday night. But the total is the bigger mover, opening at 49 and touching 51.5 a couple of times before settling at 51.
“There’s more coming on the Over, which is expected. But we’ve taken some Lions money. There didn’t seem to be any pushback once the line got to 7,” Feazel said in explaining the move to -7.5. “A lack of sharp pushback means it’s looking like we’ll need the Bucs and Under.”
Are the Dolphins in must-win mode against the Bills?
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is involved with three matchups this week, and all three are actually popular games, starting with the aforementioned Thursday nighter.
“I’m taking Miami -2. Home teams are strong on Thursday games. Miami looks to exploit a Buffalo defense that is missing many players from last year,” McKay said.
As noted, Miami failed to cover.
McKay also has an opinion on what could be the game of the week: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday.
“I played Cincy +6, and it’s now Cincy +5.5. I think it will probably go back up,” McKay said. “Cincy matches up well with K.C., and the Bengals are coming off a poor loss to New England. Week 2 is about overreactions, and this is one of them.”
And McKay is backing rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, who travel to face the Houston Texans in the Sunday night game.
“I took Chicago +7. It’s down to 6, so I recommend waiting until [closer to kickoff] for it to go back up,” McKay said. “This is another overreaction line, with a Houston team that will be one of the betting favorites all year.”
How concerning is Caleb Williams’ lackluster Bears debut?
NFL Quick Hitters
The Indianapolis Colts-Green Bay Packers meeting at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, another FOX game, got more interesting when Pack QB Jordan Love (knee) was hurt in a Week 1 loss to Philadelphia.
With Love likely out this week and Malik Willis starting for Green Bay, Indy is -3 and actually got to -3.5 a couple times.
There was talk in some sports betting circles early this week of Green Bay being a 6-point favorite if Love (knee) was healthy. But Feazel isn’t buying that.
“There’s no way Love is worth nine points. We had him worth six points, including Malik Willis being in the mix,” he said. “The market is overreacting, and public bettors are overreacting by betting the Colts +3 and the Under. There’s probably no way it reaches Colts -3.5 again.”
Feazel offers his thoughts on a couple more notable Sunday matchups.
- Bengals vs. Chiefs: “The Chiefs looked really good vs. the Ravens. The Bengals losing to the Patriots was the big stunner in Week 1. Survivor pools around the world are in shambles,” Feazel said, before addressing the action on Sunday’s game. “The sharps are pushing back on us moving closer to 7. We’ve seen sharp money coming back on the Bengals at +6.” K.C. was -5.5 late on Wednesday at Caesars.
- Saints vs. Cowboys: This is another FOX game in the early Sunday window, at 1 p.m. ET. Dallas opened -6.5 and briefly touched -7 on Sunday night, but the Cowboys were down to -6 by Wednesday night. “We got some sharp pushback at 7, taking the Lions. At this point, most people are either on the Cowboys to cover or the Saints to win outright. Probably our best-case scenario Sunday will be a Cowboys win and the Saints to cover. And we’ll need the Under.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
The aforementioned $110,000 on Dolphins -1.5 is the largest reported play so far this week. There’s not too much else out there, with the bulk of big-money plays tending to come in on the weekend.
But here are a couple of note:
- $25,000 on Cowboys +1700 to win the Super Bowl. If Dallas goes all the way, this Caesars Sports customer will profit $425,000 ($450,000 total payout).
- $22,000 on Giants +2.5 vs. Commanders in Week 2, at South Point sportsbook. Bettor will profit $20,000 ($42,000) if New York covers on the road vs. Washington.
And here’s a nice leftover parlay win from Week 1, capped by a Deebo Samuel touchdown in the San Francisco 49ers’ 32-19 win over the New York Jets on Monday night:
Turning $60 into a $18,561.90 is some pretty nice return on investment.
But just remember, parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend. Treat these kind of wagers like the lottery tickets they are.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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