Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
In the NFL Week 7 odds market, the public betting masses couldn’t match the massive haul they brought home in Week 6. But for the second straight week, it was still generally better to be a bettor than a bookmaker.
That would’ve been much more true if the New York Jets delivered on Sunday night.
“The day basically came down to the final game. We needed the Steelers in a big way,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
And they got it.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country help recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Public Opinion
On Sunday morning, Tristan Davis — a senior trader for BetMGM nationally — set the table. His sportsbook and most other operators needed underdogs to stanch the bleeding from last week.
“The book is desperate for more ‘dogs to cover and hopefully win this weekend. Bills, Commanders, Bengals and Eagles are all backed heavily right now,” Davis said.
So what ended up happening?
- Buffalo, a 9.5-point favorite, rolled over Tennessee 34-10.
- Washington, a 10-point favorite, thumped Carolina 40-7, even after losing rookie QB Jayden Daniels (ribs) early in the first quarter.
- Cincinnati beat Cleveland 21-14, covering as a 5.5-point favorite.
- Philadelphia flattened the New York Giants 28-3, cashing as a 3-point favorite.
Those four games helped stack up money for the public. Plus, you had the Kansas City Chiefs in the rare position of an underdog, which the public loved.
Said Davis prior to K.C.’s Super Bowl rematch with the San Francisco 49ers:
“The Chiefs keep taking more and more money. We’ll be rooting for the Niners.”
Final score: Kansas City 28, San Fran 18.
Ahead of Sunday night football, Davis summarized:
“A public day today. Bettors have put together a couple of strong weeks.”
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Kings For A Day (Again)
DraftKings Sportsbook customers definitely had a banner Sunday. In point-spread betting, the top five teams in ticket count — the total number of wagers on those teams — all won and covered:
- Bengals
- Eagles
- Bills
- Commanders
- Lions
We’ve already covered the first four teams on that list. Detroit is, of course, a wildly popular team with the betting public. The Lions were 1-point underdogs at the undefeated Minnesota Vikings and won 31-29 on a late field goal.
For those keeping track — and you should be at this point — the Lions are 27-9 straight up (SU) and 28-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 36 games. That’s a scorching-hot spread-covering percentage of 77.7.
Give And Take
All that said, oddsmakers managed to get a little back here and there. As alluded to above, Russell Wilson and Pittsburgh closed as 2.5-point home underdogs and beat the New York Jets 37-15.
Multiple sportsbooks in Vegas and nationally cited a Steelers need on Sunday night.
And interestingly, The SuperBook in Nevada saw plenty of Chiefs action, yet needed Kansas City against San Francisco.
“We took some big bets on San Francisco,” SuperBook executive director John Murray.
Similarly, although BetMGM nationally was more a 49ers fan, Las Vegas BetMGM sportsbooks saw a lot of Niners activity.
“After losing some big decisions in the early games — Bills over the Titans and the Eagles destroying the Giants — the late games looked bleak,” BetMGM Nevada’s Shelton said. “But we actually needed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for a change, due to multiple six-figure wagers on the 49ers.
“The Raiders covering against the Rams was also helpful.”
Las Vegas lost to L.A. 20-15 but covered as a 7-point road underdog.
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On Campus
Saturday’s slam-dunk no-doubt Game of the Week was Georgia vs. Texas. And the outcome was pretty surprising.
The Bulldogs were 4-point road underdogs but jumped out to a 23-0 halftime lead en route to a 30-15 victory. Nationally, BetMGM noted great two-way action on that matchup. In fact, the total of 57 proved more important than the point spread or the moneyline.
“Georgia-Texas staying under the total was big,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
However, much like in the NFL on Sunday, regional bias crept in and did some damage. BetMGM’s Beau Rivage sportsbook in Biloxi, Miss. — the heart of SEC country — took a bath on the Bulldogs.
“Georgia was a disaster for us,” Beau Rivage sportsbook manager Carl Johnson said. “We needed Texas here, as we had a huge player who had Georgia along with UCLA and Baylor.”
In fact, the bettor had those three teams in every way: individual point-spread bets on each team, along with two-team and three-team parlays. UCLA was a 4-point road underdog and beat Rutgers outright 35-32, while Baylor was a 5-point road underdog and trampled Texas Tech 59-35.
In all, the customer had seven wagers involving Georgia and/or UCLA and Baylor, and won all seven. So it made the Georgia outcome tough to swallow.
“Nationally, I believe BetMGM came out good for the game. We took one for the team here,” Johnson said.
In another game with huge ramifications, Magee said Tennessee — a 3.5-point home underdog — topping Alabama 24-17 saved BetMGM from a losing day nationally.
“But there were certainly a number of games that left bettors happy, Auburn-Mizzou and Miami-Louisville to name a couple,” Magee said.
Missouri rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Auburn 21-17, barely covering as a 3.5-point home favorite. Miami held off Louisville, winning a high-flying affair 52-45 as a 4-point road favorite.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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