NFL odds: Best Cowboys, Steelers Over/ Under win total bets to make now

NFL season win totals have been posted for several weeks, but now that the league has released schedules, we can really dive into the action.

There are two squads whose numbers really catch my eye — Pittsburgh and Dallas.

Will Steelers’ beefed up quarterback room help them win more games? And can the Cowboys keep rolling in the regular season?

Let’s dive into how I’m betting these two teams’ win totals this upcoming season.

Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under 8.5 wins 

Mike Tomlin has been the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers since the 2007 season. His Steelers have yet to finish a season under .500 during his coaching career. It has been a remarkable streak of excellence that he continued this winning culture at the end of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s career and after Big Ben’s 2021 retirement. 

The Steelers win with defense and relentless energy. At times, when they make magic out of nowhere, it feels like they win with voodoo. Their offense doesn’t play a big role in their wins or losses. In 2021, their offense ranked 21st in points per game. In 2022, that ranking went down to 26th in the league and last season, it went down even further to 28th in the league.

To address the offensive issues — primarily at quarterback — the Steelers signed Russell Wilson and traded for Justin Fields. Include me in the group of people that believes neither of these quarterbacks will continue Tomlin’s annual tradition of finishing at .500 or above.

Wilson will be starting in Pittsburgh, so please do not believe the Fields hype. However, Wilson is just not good anymore. Whatever metric you’d like to use, be it passer rating, DVOA, EPA (or any other stat), none of those point to Wilson being good. Those metrics also don’t show QB primed for a bounce-back season. 

While quarterback wins don’t qualify as an actual stat, it’s still an area you have to consider when evaluating the position. In Wilson’s last three seasons, including his final one in Seattle, his teams’ record is a combined 17-27 (when he’s started the game). Sure, Pittsburgh will give him a change of scenery, but he has an offensive line full of rookies. That’s not going to cater to Wilson’s propensity to not play within the offense, including holding the ball too long. 

I do believe it’s reasonable to assume the defense will be good or maybe even above average. But with their schedule, that won’t be enough to win nine games. 

Steelers fans will point to their 5-1 division record last season to support the argument that they’ll be successful again in 2024. 

Well, two of those five wins came against the Bengals, who were without quarterback Joe Burrow. And then there was the Week 18 game against the Ravens, who played their backups. Pittsburgh’s tough games outside the division include the Chiefs, Colts, Jets and Eagles. It is also a team notorious for losing even when it is favored by a touchdown at least once each season, so it’s hard to circle any for-sure wins on the calendar. 

I think the Steelers are going 8-9 this season, so I’m betting on them to go under their number.

PICK: Steelers Under 8.5 wins

Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 10.5 wins

How many times have the Cowboys hit the Under on their preseason win total during Dak’s tenure? 

Three times in his eight seasons (one of those instances was during the 2020 season, in which he missed 11 games due to injury). And in four out of eight seasons with Dak as a starter, Big D has won 11 games or more.

In fact, the Cowboys have gone 12-5 in three straight seasons under head coach Mike McCarthy, so wagering on their Under might seem counterintuitive to their recent production. 

But hear me out.

I don’t believe Dallas’ offseason moves make the squad better immediately. The team is playing two rookies on the offensive line, one of which is at left tackle and needs major polish to be ready for Week 1. Also, when future Hall of Fame left tackle Tyron Smith is out of the lineup, we’ve seen how different Prescott’s numbers are and how his absence impacts Cowboys wins. 

Well, Smith is now a New York Jet and first-round pick Tyler Guyton will be the next man up. That is a HUGE difference.

And then there’s Dallas’ running back situation, which might be the worst in the league. Yes, the skill group surrounding Dak is above average but not anything incredibly impressive.

On the other side of the ball, the defense lost defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the Commanders head coaching job, so I’d expect some regression even with the hiring of Mike Zimmer. The Cowboys’ trend of forcing a bunch of turnovers is not sustainable.

Lastly, Dallas has a tough schedule this year. It gets the AFC South plus a first-place division and cross-conference opponent schedule. The Lions, 49ers, Buccaneers and Bengals are on the schedule. 

Considering all of the above, I think the Cowboys will fall short of racking up as many wins as they have the past several years.

PICK: Cowboys Under 10.5 wins

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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