2024-25 NFL odds: Bet ‘Hard Knocks’ Giants to win Under 6.5 games

When I take a look at NFL teams’ preseason win totals, the Giants‘ number at 6.5 stood out to me.

A big reason I’ve got my eye on the Giants is because they’re the latest team to be featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks.”

Now, we already know that history hasn’t been kind to “Hard Knocks” teams — at least when it comes to them winning the Super Bowl after being featured on the show. 

But realistically, “Super Bowl” and “Giants” don’t even belong in the same sentence. The focus on New York should be about how many games it can win next season, and something tells me that the Giants starring in an HBO hit show isn’t going to put them over the hump.

This is a team that hasn’t played consistent winning football since the 2012 season. 

In 2012, N.Y. won nine games, and that was a year after winning the Super Bowl. In the next 11 seasons, the Giants got to .500 just twice. In both of those instances, they made the playoffs. New York has gone under 6.5 wins eight of the other nine times during that span. 

However, the G-Men have been plagued with misfortune. They’ve had turnover at the head coaching position, inconsistency at quarterback, injuries and poor drafts. Although the Giants have found their head coach in Brian Daboll, the rest of the usual concerns are valid.

But let’s go back to the quarterback situation.

I’m going to be brutally honest here: Daniel Jones is just not a good quarterback. He’s entering his sixth season as a starter and without much success to show for it. 

It’s fair to place some of the blame on his previous coaching staff and on the lack of talent around him. He also has a history that includes two major neck injuries. But even when you consider all of that, there’s almost nothing on film or in the numbers to show that he’s anything better than an average quarterback, at best. 

Since Jones entered the NFL, he ranks 41st in EPA. He ranked 39th in EPA last season after ranking 11th in 2022. That 2022 number included a big boost from his rushing game, which will probably be limited moving forward considering his neck injuries. 

Yes, the Giants added Malik Nabers in the first round, but I don’t think his talent is enough to boost the Giants’ chances of being anything more than mediocre.

If New York put an all-star roster around Jones, that could possibly make up for his lackadaisical play. Unfortunately for the Giants, though, that’s just not the roster they have currently. 

They have just one proven “game wrecker” on offense — left tackle Andrew Thomas. He’s excellent. Rookie receiver Nabers could be elite at some point in the year. Maybe Jalin Hyatt racks up some explosive plays at receiver. It’s possible former first-round pick Evan Neal blossoms at right tackle and that second-round pick John Michael Schmitz becomes top-tier in Year 2. 

But New York’s real strength is its defensive line. 

Brian Burns, who was traded this offseason from the Panthers, is a game wrecker. So is Dexter Lawrence at defensive tackle. If defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux puts together another season like 2023, he’ll finish the year as one of those dudes. And that’s it on defense.

The Giants have quality players like linebacker Bobby Okereke and are hopeful that second-year corner Deonte Banks continues to improve. But it’s a back-seven on defense that’s just very mid right now.

Then, their schedule doesn’t cut them any slack, either. 

The Eagles and Cowboys — the NFC East’s top two teams — will be good. If Jayden Daniels ends up being to the Commanders what CJ Stroud was for the Texans, that spells even more trouble.  

NYG also has some matchups against the AFC North, which we know is possibly the best division in football. 

When I look at the schedule, I don’t see wins that you can pencil into the schedule. I think it’s going to be another hard knocks, bad season for the Giants.

PICK: Giants Under 6.5 wins

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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