Euro 2024 group scenarios: How each team advances to the Round of 16

Gareth Southgate hasn’t had everything his own way so far at Euro 2024, but as the second round of matches approaches in Group C the England head coach is in an enviable position that every other manager in the tournament would welcome.

England is the only team with the potential to secure a first-place finish in its group with a game to spare, though that outcome is not totally within the control of Southgate and his players.

However, if Slovenia’s clash with Serbia in Thursday’s early game ends in a tie, and Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and company defeat Denmark, they would become the first squad officially inked into their place in the knockout bracket.

“Obviously, we are here to go as far as we can,” Southgate told reporters. “There is a job to be done and it starts with taking care of business in the group.”

Other teams have the ability to secure qualification in their second game — Germany did so with its victory on Wednesday — though top spot in Group A remains up for grabs for both those nations.

Here we take a look at what each and every team needs to do in order to keep its dream alive of going all the way to the final in Berlin on July 14.

**Through games played on June 19th 

GROUP SCENARIOS

The top two teams in each group will advance to the Round of 16, along with the four best third place finishers.

Group A

• Germany has already qualified for the Round of 16, and will win the group with a draw or win against Switzerland
• Switzerland advances with a win or draw against Germany, with a win giving them a top spot
• Switzerland can also advance with a loss AND a loss or draw by Scotland
• Switzerland can also advance with a loss AND a win by Scotland if they are ahead on goal difference
• Scotland can advance and finish second in the group if they defeat Hungary, AND Switzerland loses, AND they finish ahead of the Swiss on goal difference (discipline points would be used if goal difference is equal)
• Scotland will be eliminated with a draw or loss
• Hungary can only advance with a win over Scotland, and can only finish third at-best (would need to win tiebreakers among other third-place groups)

Group B

• Spain will advance and win the group with a victory over Italy
• Italy will advance and win the group with a victory over Spain
• Croatia cannot advance or be eliminated
• Albania cannot advance or be eliminated

Group C

• England advances with a win over Denmark, and can also secure the top spot in the group with a win AND Serbia-Slovenia draw
• Denmark and Slovenia cannot advance, be ruled out of the top two, or eliminated
• Serbia will be unable to finish in the top two of the group with a loss to Slovenia
• Serbia will eliminated if they lose to Slovenia AND Denmark beats England

Group D

• Netherlands advances with a win over France, and will win the group if Poland wins or draws with Austria
• France advances with a win over Netherlands, and will win the group if Austria wins or draw with Poland
• Poland cannot advance or be eliminated; they will not finish in the top two if they lose to Austria AND France wins or draws against Netherlands
• Austria cannot advance or be eliminated; they will not finish in the top two if they lose to Poland AND Netherlands wins or draws against France

Group E

• Romania advances with a win over Belgium, and will secure a top two finish if Slovakia wins or draws against Ukraine
• Slovakia advances with a win over Ukraine, and will secure a top two finish if Romania wins or draws against Belgium
• Belgium cannot advance or be eliminated; they will not finish in the top two if they lose to Romania AND Slovakia wins or draws against Ukraine
• Ukraine cannot advance or be eliminated; they will not finish in the top two if they lose to Slovakia AND Romania wins or draws against Belgium

Group F

• Turkey advances with a win over Portugal, and will win the group if Georgia wins or draws against Czechia
• Portugal advances with a win over Turkey, and will win the group if Czechia wins or draws against Georgia
• Czechia will be eliminated if they lose to Georgia AND Turkey wins or draws against Portugal
• Georgia will be eliminated if they lose to Czechia AND Portugal wins or draws against Turkey

Group tiebreakers

• Head-to-head result
• Head-to-head goal difference
• Head-to-head goals scored
• If three teams are tied on points, then the above criteria are applied again to just those teams. If teams still are tied after that, then the following tiebreakers are applied.
• Group goal difference
• Group goals scored
• A penalty shootout would ensue if the two teams in question are playing each other on the final day
• If the two teams don’t play each other, then disciplinary points would be applied
• Rankings from Euro qualifiers

Third-place criteria 

• Points
• Goal difference
• Goals scored
• Wins
• Disciplinary points
• Rankings from Euro qualifiers

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.

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