NFC South fantasy primer: Other than Bijan Robinson, who’s worth taking?

How should the NFC South fit into your fantasy football plans for 2024, you ask?

Sparingly, most would say.

The division had the league’s worst combined record in 2023, with very limited individual offensive success stories. What’s more, the Bucs, Falcons, Saints and Panthers all have new offensive coordinators and relatively young ones at that, so there are natural question marks as to how quickly things will come together in new systems with novice playcallers.

But we’re here to answer the big questions about the NFC South and fantasy football, where some value might be found from those teams in later rounds and so on. There’s considerable optimism surrounding Falcons running back Bijan Robinson entering his second season, and he might be the only NFC South player taken in the first two rounds of some fantasy leagues. 

Onto the questions:

Who should be taken first for each NFC South team?

Falcons: It’s definitely Robinson, whose ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo leagues is sixth overall, third among running backs behind only the 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey and the Jets’ Breece Hall. Robinson is going this high despite a somewhat disappointing rookie year against high expectations — he ranked 37th overall in fantasy scoring in PPR leagues. There’s optimism he’ll be used more in the red zone: Betonline AG has set his season over/unders at 1,000.5 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing touchdowns, with plenty of receptions coming as well. He really should be the only NFC South player you consider in the first round.

[AUMAN: The next Christian McCaffrey? Bijan Robinson eyes breakout with Falcons]

Saints: It starts with receiver Chris Olave, who enters his third NFL season going 21st overall in Yahoo drafts, despite having nine total touchdowns in his first two years in New Orleans. He’s the No. 11 receiver off the boards, and with mostly indifference to the rest of the Saints offense, that speaks to a confidence he’ll be featured more, with limited receiver depth behind him. Keep this in mind: In the past 15 years, the only players to get 250-plus targets in their first two NFL seasons and fail to get 10 touchdown catches are Olave, the Jets’ Garrett Wilson in 2022-23 and the Dolphins’ Jarvis Landry in 2014-15. Landry made five straight Pro Bowls as a prolific pass-catcher but never had double-digit touchdowns in any season.

Bucs: Receiver Mike Evans is the first Tampa Bay player off the board, though it’s a bit insulting that he’s going 27th overall and the 13th receiver on average, considering that he tied for the NFL lead in touchdown catches last season. He finished 2023 as the NFL’s No. 16 player in fantasy scoring and seventh among receivers, so people are anticipating a downturn in his scoring numbers after he clicked so well with Baker Mayfield in their first season together. Evans will be hard-pressed to get to 13 touchdowns again, but he’s as reliable as anyone to get to 1,000 yards and 65 catches considering that he’s done it in all 10 seasons he’s been in Tampa.

Panthers: Carolina will likely be the last NFL team to have a player picked in your fantasy draft, and rightfully so. The first Carolina player by Yahoo ADP is receiver Diontae Johnson, acquired from the Steelers this offseason. Fantasy folks remember that Johnson had 147 targets in 2022 without a single touchdown, which is unfair because he’s had at least five touchdowns in every other season he’s played. He’s going 102nd overall and 37th among receivers, but there might be more upside in using such a pick on a Panthers rookie like receiver Xavier Legette or running back Jonathon Brooks.

[AUMAN: Pete Carroll says protégé Dave Canales will show Panthers ‘what they can become’]

Should these NFC South quarterbacks even be drafted?

If the default is a 12-team league, you’re looking at 24 quarterbacks being drafted, and that makes this a legit question.

Consider the individual season over/unders for the four NFC South quarterbacks from Betonline AG:

Kirk Cousins, Falcons: 4,000.5 yards, 27.5 touchdowns
Baker Mayfield, Bucs: 3,600.5 yards, 22.5 touchdowns
Derek Carr, Saints: 3,350.5 yards, 21.5 touchdowns
Bryce Young, Panthers: 3,200.5 yards, 18.5 touchdowns

None of the four have overwhelming projected numbers. Cousins, 35 and coming off a torn Achilles tendon, is the first off the board in Yahoo leagues, but that’s at No. 142 overall — 21st among quarterbacks, making him a low-end backup. It’s usually tempting to take a young QB as a backup, looking for upside rather than a slight advantage in the few times you’ll use them. Mayfield is close behind at No. 159, 24th among quarterbacks, and those two are the only ones drafted consistently enough to register an ADP. Given his final month last year, Carr isn’t a bad final-round flier if you don’t have a backup quarterback. Young will almost certainly be improved in his second year, but if that growth is enough to register on the fantasy radar, it’ll be a huge story.

Best sleepers who can exceed low expectations from each team

Bucs WR Chris Godwin: He’s managed to catch fewer touchdown passes four years in a row, from nine in 2019 to seven to five to three to two last year. Injuries played a part in that, and he’s moving back to the slot, in the same role in Liam Coen’s offense that Cooper Kupp had with the Rams. Godwin is in a contract year, so there are many reasons why his high-volume overall production should continue and his touchdowns should bounce back a bit. He’s going 96th overall and 36th among receivers, and he was a top-25 receiver in yards and catches last year. You can do much worse in the eighth round.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: It’s almost cruel to write this, but Pitts has disappointed many a fantasy owner in his three years. He was a top-five draft pick who has yet to make good on the promise of catching 12 touchdowns in his last season at Florida. He’s totaled six scores in three years in Atlanta, but it’s possible he hits that in one year if he’s healthy and used more normally in the red zone. Betonline has his over/unders ambitiously high at 800.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. Pitts is the No. 7 tight end off the board in Yahoo leagues, which might just show how many people are ready to get burned again.

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Saints WR Rashid Shaheed: New Orleans doesn’t have much in the way of receiver depth, and with Olave drawing the defense’s primary attention, Shaheed’s role will continue to grow. He finished his second season with 46 catches for 719 yards and five touchdowns, and it’s easy to project him exceeding all those in Klint Kubiak’s new offense. He had a touchdown on a punt return last year as well, though he might work less there if he’s the Saints’ No. 2 receiver the entire season.

Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks: He’s coming off injury, so he might not be as good early in the year, but as the first back drafted in 2024, Brooks will have a chance to take on a major role as the Panthers seek an offensive balance to take some of the load off Young. It’s a smart position to go young for backups, and Brooks is the 37th back off the board in Yahoo right now, going around the ninth round. It would be easy for him to outpoint Chuba Hubbard and be a solid flex option in the last two months of the season.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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