Tarik Skubal to Dodgers, Yankees or Orioles? 3 reasons why Tigers shouldn’t trade him

There is no doubt that every contending club would love to trade for Tarik Skubal. 

But among the several teams in competition for the postseason, few organizations are capable of manufacturing a trade package that would satisfy the Detroit Tigers enough to let their ace — who still has two more years of team control remaining, mind you — pitch for another club. We’re talking about the Orioles, the Yankees and the Dodgers: three franchises with strong farm systems and perhaps the burning desire to ostensibly put together a deal that the Tigers couldn’t refuse. 

Here’s the thing: There are enough reasons why Detroit shouldn’t even entertain the thought of trading Skubal — even if Baltimore offers Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and other top prospects or New York dangles major-league ready outfielder Jasson Domínguez or Aaron Judge-comp Spencer Jones. A fully healthy Skubal is showing he’s worth more to the Tigers than an enticing prospect bundle.

Let’s examine three reasons why Detroit should refrain from trading Skubal ahead of Tuesday’s 6 p.m. ET MLB trade deadline.

1. He’s the Tigers’ first homegrown ace since Justin Verlander

It’s been seven years since Verlander donned No. 35 for Detroit, and seven years since any Tigers pitcher has even come close to replicating what he brought to the franchise. Skubal is building legitimate hope and excitement about Detroit’s future every time he steps on the mound. He’s becoming must-see television, and it’s no coincidence the Tigers this year have their highest attendance since 2018, as crowds filter into Comerica Park to watch their ace pummel opposing lineups. 

Skubal is the favorite to win the American League Cy Young. He owns an 11-3 record, a AL-best 2.34 ERA, a 3.7 fWAR that trails only Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale among all MLB starters, a 0.92 WHIP that ranks second in the majors, and a .199 batting average against to go with a 30% strikeout rate.

Now that Skubal has shown he can stay healthy, effective and dominant, the Tigers can seriously begin to build around him. In some ways, they already have. In A.J. Hinch, they have a winning manager in the dugout — however muddied his history is with the sign-stealing Astros — in place to take the Tigers to contention. 

One can argue that the prospect package the Tigers would receive for trading Skubal would give them the sort of top-level hitters the team needs to succeed. But, without a franchise ace leading the charge, what good is it? Skubal is becoming the type of starting pitcher who acts as a veteran anchor, a core player that the rest of the clubhouse can get behind.

2. He wants to bring a championship back to Detroit

This past April, Skubal told FOX Sports that he’s tired of losing. His past couple of years in the majors were disrupted by injury, which didn’t help. But in his 2020 debut season, the Tigers finished last in the AL Central. In the three years since, Detroit has placed third, fourth and second, while Skubal’s numbers have improved each season. After returning from injury in the second half of 2023, his 4-0 mark, 0.90 ERA and 43 strikeouts across five September starts provided Detroit a glimpse of its possible future. At 51-53, the Tigers are in fourth in the division and expected to be sellers at the deadline. But their .490 winning percentage is also the franchise’s best since 2016. If the front office refrains from dealing Skubal, perhaps the club will galvanize heading into next year and continue to trend in the right direction.

The Tigers haven’t won a championship since 1984, and Skubal is passionate about trying to update their World Series legacy.

“You saw what the [Detroit] Lions did,” Skubal told FOX Sports earlier this year. “Detroit is a great sports town. I feel like, since COVID, we haven’t really been able to give the fans what they deserve. So, I’m excited. I’m excited for the city of Detroit. I want that same atmosphere that the Lions had, because that’s fun to play in.”

He wants to be that homegrown player that helps bring consistency and winning back to Detroit. That’s not very common these days. Players, even if they won’t publicly admit it, value loaded contracts — often for commendable reasons, including helping out family abroad and setting up bright futures for their kids — over remaining loyal to one team for their entire careers. Skubal, of course, wants to be valued by his front office, too, but he also values the ups and downs he’s experienced with teammates and members of the organization, and he wants to do his part by bringing glory to Detroit. Such loyalty to one team is the type of throwback attitude that is refreshing in baseball.

The Tigers should do their part by building a strong roster around Skubal and supporting the man who wants to stay and add to the sense of pride around Detroit’s professional sports. The Tigers are a middle-market team worth $1.45 billion, according to Forbes, and they can spend on free agents to get where they need to go. The organization’s future success does not necessarily hinge on only building a strong farm system.

3. It’s no sure thing that a prospect haul will translate to major-league success

Executives can make trades for top prospects and fully believe they’ll be the next Juan Soto, Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. But that’s no sure thing. Oftentimes, hyped-up prospects won’t even make it to the majors. No one, not even the Orioles, know for sure if that’s the case with Mayo, MLB’s No. 15 overall top prospect, or even left-hander Cade Povich, Baltimore’s top pitcher who’s flashing brilliance in the minors. 

But take a look at the Dodgers’ current odyssey with right-hander Bobby Miller, who’s struggled to a 9.87 ERA over four starts following a two-month stretch on the injured list and is trying to regroup in Triple-A. Miller is not panning out as expected this year after a promising rookie campaign. If Los Angeles wanted to trade for Skubal, it would take a package of 4–5 players that might need to include right-hander Gavin Stone, who has thus far shown he can excel in the majors, alongside the organization’s No. 1 prospect, catcher Dalton Rushing. Proposals like that — a potential power bat at a premier position and a young MLB starter who appears to have a bright future — could be convincing enough for the Tigers to part ways with their ace.

Alas, those prospect packages, however attractive, are built on the premise of hope and strong minor-league development. The promotion from Triple-A to the major leagues is often regarded as the biggest jump in professional sports. It’s a gamble that just doesn’t seem worth it when compared to Skubal’s proven talent at the major-league level. His own rise didn’t come easy for him, either. 

Skubal’s desire to win, paired with years of adversity that translated to dominance on the mound, mixed with his ambition to bring a championship to Detroit, are all elements that cannot easily be replaced or replicated. His talent and character make clubhouses stronger. They are the foundation for winning teams, not something that can be looked over for the next, new, flashier product. 

The Tigers would be smart to preserve the diamond they’ve developed, a Cy Young-caliber gem who is now embracing the national spotlight and determined to angle that megawatt glow on Detroit.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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