Where will Commanders’ head coach search turn next?

Over the last week or so, people inside the Washington Commanders began having doubts about whether Ben Johnson would be their next head coach. He was still rightfully considered by many to be the favorite. But there were doubts about whether he actually wanted the job.

So when Johnson called them on Wednesday afternoon — while their search committee was en route to Detroit to meet with him — and said he preferred to keep his job as the Lions offensive coordinator, the Commanders weren’t caught completely by surprise. But it still was a jolt to a search they had hoped to wrap up by the end of this week. And it’s led many around the NFL to openly wonder two things:

Where do they go from here?

And will they expand their search?

The answer to the first question could become much clearer in the coming hours and days, but currently there are five remaining available candidates from their initial group of eight — Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, Ravens defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, Ravens defensive line coach/assistant head coach Anthony Weaver, and Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.

Quinn and MacDonald were considered “real sleepers” in the search as recently as last week, according to a team source who said both had impressive interviews. But they are both apparently finalists for the head coaching job in Seattle too. MacDonald, in fact, was headed there for a second interview on Wednesday, according to a report.

Looming over the Commanders’ search, however, are two coaches they haven’t interviewed yet — Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel, who happen to be two of the best and most experienced head coaches to hit the open market in years.

But there have been no indications at all that new Commanders owner Josh Harris and his search committee, which obviously includes new general manager Adam Peters, intends to turn to either of them. While there have been reports that the committee has discussed Belichick — the ex-Patriots coach and perhaps the greatest coach in NFL history — multiple team sources have said Harris is unlikely to go in that direction. They have concerns about everything from Belichick’s age (71) to his willingness to work under a GM who will have control over personnel, to whether he’d even want to take on what could be a years-long rebuilding job.

As for the 48-year-old Vrabel, one NFC personnel executive called it “a real mystery” and “ridiculous” that he apparently hasn’t even gotten a sniff from the Commanders — at least not yet. He’s coming off a relatively successful six-year run in Tennessee where he went 54-45, had four winning seasons, three playoff berths and took the Titans to the AFC Championship Game in 2019.

“He’s one of the most respected coaches in the league and there’d be no learning curve with him,” the executive said. “If they bring him in for an interview they’d never let him leave.”

So far, though, the Commanders haven’t, even though they’ve already conducted two interviews with all eight of their original candidates — a group that includes Bobby Slowik, who got a big raise to stay in Houston as the Texans offensive coordinator, and Raheem Morris, who was hired as the Atlanta Falcons new head coach.

With Slowik and Johnson out, there is something else curious about the remaining group: Four of the five are defensive coaches. In fact, the only offensive coach left is Bieniemy, and nobody seems to think he has a legitimate shot at the job. That’s curious since many around the NFL believed Peters, the former 49ers assistant GM, wanted an offensive-minded coach after seeing what Kyle Shanahan, one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL, had done in San Francisco.

Now, a big factor in his decision could be who the Commanders next head coach plans to hire as their offensive coordinator — a huge position considering they’re likely to be led next season by a rookie quarterback that they select with the second over pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. And since the coaching carousel has already been spinning for several weeks, many of the best external candidates are already off the market.

Some around the NFL have speculated that when the search committee interviewed Bieniemy for the head coaching job it wasn’t just a courtesy — it was also to gauge his interest in staying on as offensive coordinator under a new boss.

But which new boss?

The search committee has maintained a tight grip on that information, especially now that the general perception is that they lost out on their top choice. The last thing they want is for people to believe they lost their second choice too — a possibility with Quinn and MacDonald still in the running in Seattle.

Quinn is the lone candidate with head coaching experience (he even took the Falcons to the Super Bowl in 2017). MacDonald and Weaver, though, come from a Baltimore Ravens organization that Harris — a Maryland native — has long admired and, a source said, views as a model for how he wants his new franchise to be run. And for what it’s worth, Glenn did have the last chance to make his case when the search committee met with him in Detroit on Tuesday night. He seems like a longshot, but one team source cautioned not to rule anyone out now.

The only thing that does seem certain is that the search will be wrapped up soon. Most expect the Commanders will have a new coach in place by the time Super Bowl week kicks off on Sunday. It’s just still not clear exactly who that new coach will be.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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