Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders is no doubt a lightning rod for attention.
In fact, the son of Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders — also no stranger to the spotlight — would already be in the NFL, had he chosen to enter the 2024 NFL Draft.
But would Sanders have been a first-round pick in the 2024 draft? Maybe, according to veteran oddsmaker Rex Beyers.
“It’s a tough question to answer,” Beyers said. “Deion thinks he would’ve been the second quarterback taken. But Deion is biased here.”
Beyers helps me tackle a trio of interesting hypotheticals on the Colorado QB.
Let’s jump into whether Sanders would’ve been a first-round pick this year, an Over/Under on how many teams Sanders would start for this upcoming season and potentially the following season.
Deep Six
Six quarterbacks were selected within the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams led the way, going No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears.
And Beyers believes the next four QBs taken also would’ve gone ahead of Sanders.
“Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. were all clearly better than Sanders,” Beyers said. “You could make the argument that Denver could’ve taken Sanders at No. 12, instead of Bo Nix.
“But I can’t make any case for him to go before that.”
Assuming the draft kept the same form, it’s possible Sanders might still have gone in the first round.
“There was such a drop-off after those six. The next QB didn’t go until the 150th pick,” Beyers said, alluding to Spencer Rattler going to New Orleans. “Sanders’ ceiling was 12, and his floor was probably somewhere before the end of the first round. The end of the first round is safe, but not a guarantee.”
The Starting Line
Beyers didn’t find it nearly as challenging to come up with an Over/Under on the number of teams Sanders could start for this upcoming season.
“It depends on whether the Over/Under is on Aug. 31 or Jan. 1. But if it’s the beginning of the season, it would be either 0.5 or 1.5 at the most,” Beyers said. “He could start for the Raiders, and that’s not a cinch. I like Gardner Minshew. And he could start for Denver. Whomever Denver took at quarterback was gonna start there.
“So it’s 1.5, priced at Under -200, or it’s 0.5 at Over -200.”
Will Colorado, Deion Sanders improve upon their return to the Big 12 Conference?
In layman’s terms: At 1.5, Under is a significant favorite, and at 0.5, Over is a significant favorite. Regardless, Beyers saw no more than two teams that would start Sanders this season.
“Go down the list, and I can tell you he’s only gonna start for the Raiders and Broncos. And it’s no cinch that he’d start for either,” Beyers said. “I’ve watched enough tape of the guy. What you see is what you get: a very accurate passer who doesn’t throw interceptions. And he doesn’t fumble, which is impressive, given how often he gets hit.
“But he takes far too long to process information and get through his progressions. That’s the most important improvement he needs to make, to determine where he gets drafted next year.
“Nobody will argue about his natural talent. He’s just got to get better upstairs, and he can do that.”
Feeling the 2025 Draft
FanDuel Sportsbook already has a market up for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is the +300 favorite, meaning a $100 bet would profit $300 ($400 total payout) if Beck goes No. 1.
The second choice is Sanders, at +500, followed by Tennessee defensive end James Pearce Jr. at +650. Beyers pointed out one factor that has far less to do with Sanders’ ability, or that of any incoming QB.
“It’s hard to project that far out. The X-factor is these QB salaries are beyond absurd,” Beyers said. “In what world does the Dolphins QB and the Packers QB deserve to be two of the highest-paid players in the game? Does Tua Tagovailoa deserve that kind of money?”
That question notwithstanding, Beyers hedged his bet, so to speak, on the Over/Under for the number of teams Sanders could start for in the 2025-26 season.
“Until I watch him play this year and see his development, I can’t give you a firm answer. But it won’t be 0.5 or 1.5. It’ll be several notches higher than that,” Beyers said, while leaning into a renowned college football talent analyst. “Phil Steele has Sanders as the third-best QB. I’ve got him as the fifth- or sixth-best QB.”
Beyers likened Sanders to Jayden Daniels, who this year was drafted No. 2 overall by the Washington Commanders. Daniels made huge progress last season, his final year at LSU.
“If Sanders’ maturity is similar to Daniels’, I’d say Daniels would’ve started for four teams this season. So my Over/Under number for Sanders next season would be 4.5,” Beyers explained. “And if Sanders has a good season this year, the number could be higher.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers. Follow him on Twitter @PatrickE_Vegas.
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