2024 Big Ten football predictions: Projections and players to watch preview

In what many describe as the most anticipated college football season of all time, the Big Ten conference will enjoy a series of noteworthy firsts this fall.

For the first time since Jan. 12, 2015 — and for just the third time this century — the Big Ten lays claim to the defending national champion after Michigan roared through an undefeated season to provide the capstone for head coach Jim Harbaugh’s illustrious career. 

For the first time since 2014 — and for just the second time this century — the Big Ten is welcoming new members into the fray, with USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon expanding the conference’s footprint from one coast to the other. 

And for the very first time — barring some sort of unforeseen, all-but-unfathomable collapse — the Big Ten will send more than one of its members to the College Football Playoff thanks to an expanded 12-team format that is designed to favor teams from the Power 4 leagues. It’s not impossible to think the Big Ten could have three, or possibly even four, bites at the cherry come December and January. The Big Ten hasn’t produced back-to-back national champions since Michigan State won shares of the title in 1965 and 1966. 

Here’s what to expect from the Big Ten this season.

Top five conference games to watch:

1. Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 30, noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Always among the most anticipated games of the college football season, this year’s version of The Game could have massive ramifications for Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, who has stumbled against the Wolverines three consecutive times. Not since the late 1980s and early 1990s has Michigan notched a four-game winning streak over the Buckeyes, and close observers of this rivalry will know the last stretch of Maize-and-Blue dominance any longer than that came in the 1920s under head coach Fielding Yost. The pressure on Day remains incredibly thick despite the departure of Jim Harbaugh for the Los Angeles Chargers.

2. Ohio State at Oregon (Oct. 12)

Consider this a gift from the conference realignment gods, as the second-ranked Buckeyes will face the third-ranked Ducks in a game that should have significant Big Ten and CFP implications. This is the kind of marquee matchup that likely had conference officials — and television executives — salivating during an expansion process that also brought Washington, USC and UCLA into the fold. It has everything that makes the new Big Ten so fascinating to watch: cross-country travel, massive national brands, a terrific home field advantage and two of the most talented rosters in the country. This might be a preview of the league title game come December. 

3. Ohio State at Penn State (Nov. 2)

Even though the Buckeyes have defeated the Nittany Lions seven consecutive times, and 11 of the past 12 overall, any matchup between these two behemoths remains appointment viewing for Big Ten fans across the country. Penn State head coach James Franklin has a desultory 1-9 record against Ohio State since he arrived in Happy Valley ahead of the 2014 campaign, but now his margin of error for reaching the CFP will widen thanks to the league’s elimination of divisions and an expanded format. Still, the Nittany Lion faithful yearn for their first win over the Buckeyes since 2016.

4. Oregon at Michigan (Nov. 2)

If the prospect of an Ohio State-Penn State clash wasn’t enough for Big Ten fans to mark Nov. 2 on their respective calendars, then surely the addition of an Oregon-Michigan showdown that same day will do the trick. This is the third of three seismic home games for the Wolverines and new head coach Sherrone Moore on a schedule that includes earlier high-profile dates against Texas on Sept. 7 and USC on Sept. 21. The chess match between an explosive Oregon offense led by transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel and a Michigan defense that is expected to produce multiple first-round picks in the 2025 NFL Draft is a mouthwatering prospect.

5. USC at Michigan (Sept. 21)

A tricky season opener against No. 13 LSU in Las Vegas should serve as a decent barometer for where the Trojans stand without former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, who was the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Head coach Lincoln Riley told reporters at Big Ten media days that his goal is to compete for league titles and national championships every year given the program’s lofty expectations and rich tradition. But a cross-country trip to Michigan Stadium for USC’s welcome-to-the-Big Ten moment is an incredibly difficult challenge during the first month of the regular season. 

Top five players to watch: 

1. Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon

By the time December rolls around, it might look quite silly that Gabriel was ranked as the No. 12 quarterback in the transfer portal following his standout seasons at Oklahoma and UCF. Many of the signal-callers rated ahead of Gabriel have youth on their side — with players like Julian Sayin (Ohio State), Aidan Chiles (Michigan State) and Dante Moore (Oregon) all still possessing multiple years of eligibility — but none of them can match his experience (49 starts) and production (14,865 yards). If things go well for the Ducks in 2024, Gabriel could make a run at the NCAA career records for passing yards (19,217) and passing touchdowns (155) set by former Houston quarterback Case Keenum.

2. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

For an interior defensive lineman to make this list reflects both how dominant Graham was as a sophomore en route to the national championship and how highly he’s thought of in NFL Draft circles entering the 2024 campaign. Graham earned first-team All-Big Ten honors from the coaches after finishing with 36 tackles (7.5 for loss) and 3.0 sacks. He led Michigan’s defensive linemen with 29 quarterback pressures, including five in the title game against Washington alone, according to Pro Football Focus. At 6-foot-3 and 320 pounds, Graham should be one of the most dominant trench players in the country. He and fellow defensive tackle Kenneth Grant (6-foot-3, 339 pounds) form an elite tandem for new defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale.

3. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State

Judkins arrived at Ohio State as the No. 9 overall prospect in the transfer portal and the No. 1 player at his position after two tremendous seasons at Ole Miss. He ran for 1,476 yards and 16 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2022 to earn SEC Freshman of the Year honors from the coaches. Then he rumbled for 1,052 yards and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore to become a first-team All-SEC selection. Judkins has the most rushing yards (2,725) of any player from the Power 5 conferences over the last two seasons and should flourish under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, whose UCLA teams ranked among the top 20 in rushing each of the last four years. The running back tandem of Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson is the best in college football. 

4. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

As with Graham, whom many expect will depart following the 2024 season, Johnson is similarly viewed as one of the best cornerbacks in the country and a high-level draft prospect. He was a consensus first-team All-Big Ten selection as a sophomore last fall and finished second on the team with four interceptions, one of which he returned for a score. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 45.9% of the 37 passes they threw in Johnson’s direction, according to PFF, and he did not allow a single touchdown all season. Johnson was selected as the Defensive MVP of the CFP title game vs. Washington and was chosen as the Big Ten Preseason Defensive Player of the Year in a media poll over the summer. 

5. Jay Higgins, LB, Iowa 

In 2023, Higgins was the focal point of another elite Iowa defense that ranked fourth nationally in scoring (14.8 points per game), fifth in passing (170.7 yards per game) and seventh overall (282.5 yards per game) to shoulder much of the burden on an offensively challenged team. Higgins earned first-team All-America honors from several publications after leading FBS with 171 total tackles, tying a single-season school record. He reached double-figure tackles in 10 games — including a career high 18 against Penn State — while also chipping in 2.0 sacks, one forced fumble, one interception and five passes defended. Higgins and fellow linebacker Nick Jackson (100-plus tackles in four consecutive seasons) are among the best duos in the country at their position.

Top five freshmen to watch:

1. Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska

In some respects, Raiola’s recruitment came full circle when the Nebraska legacy decommitted from Georgia (after previously decommitting from Ohio State) to sign with the Cornhuskers, a program for which his father starred as an All-American center and for which his uncle is the current offensive line coach. Raiola tossed 88 passing touchdowns and only 11 interceptions across a winding prep career that included stops in Texas, Arizona and Georgia. He finished as the No. 21 overall prospect and No. 3 quarterback in the 2024 cycle to become the highest-rated signing by Nebraska in the recruiting rankings era. Now, Raiola is expected to win the starting job over incumbent Heinrich Haarberg, who posted a 5-3 record in eight starts last season but endured significant struggles with ball security and downfield passing.

2. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

The next great receiving prospect on Brian Hartline’s assembly line is Smith, a five-star recruit from Chaminade-Madonna Prep in Florida and the No. 1 overall player in the 2024 cycle. Ohio State withstood late pushes from in-state powers Miami (Fla.), Florida State and Florida to secure a wideout who is already being described as a generational talent in Columbus. Smith caught 88 passes for 1,376 yards and 19 touchdowns last season to be named the state’s player of the year by MaxPreps. He enrolled at Ohio State in January to participate in spring practice and has drawn rave reviews from coaches and teammates ever since. The expectation is that Smith will contribute immediately as the team’s No. 3 wideout behind Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. 

3. Elijah Rushing, EDGE, Oregon

A native of Tucson, Arizona, where he starred for Salpointe Catholic High School, Rushing originally committed to the hometown Wildcats in July 2023 in what represented a huge recruiting win for then-head coach Jedd Fisch. But the verbal pledge only lasted a few months, and Rushing eventually flipped his commitment to Oregon in late October of that same year. He signed with the Ducks two months later and enrolled in time to participate in spring practice, ultimately finishing as the No. 45 overall prospect and No. 5 edge rusher in the country. Rushing may not see immediate playing time at Oregon, where the Ducks are fairly loaded along the defensive line, but his 6-foot-6, 255-pound frame will make it difficult to keep him off the field for very long.

4. Carter Nelson, WR, Nebraska

Nelson was a highly recruited in-state prospect from Ainsworth, Nebraska, less than an hour from the South Dakota border. He was the No. 55 overall player in the 2024 recruiting cycle and the No. 3 tight end in the country, with an official visit list that included trips to Georgia, Notre Dame and Penn State before the Cornhuskers got the final word. Head coach Matt Rhule told reporters that Nelson has since been converted from tight end to wide receiver to get him on the field as quickly as possible this fall. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound Nelson is expected to be utilized in the slot, where his size and speed could cause problems for opposing linebackers or safeties. Nelson caught 32 passes for 658 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 1,148 yards and 19 additional scores last fall.

5. Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State

Though he originally signed with Alabama last December and enrolled in Tuscaloosa on Jan. 10, Sayin was only a member of the Crimson Tide for a few short weeks. The No. 6 overall player in the country and the No. 1 quarterback in the 2024 cycle wasted little time entering the transfer portal after head coach Nick Saban unexpectedly retired, quickly committing to Ohio State roughly 48 hours later. Landing another five-star quarterback was a huge boon for the Buckeyes, who had already secured four-star signal-caller Air Noland (No. 56 overall, No. 4 QB) in the same class. Sayin impressed teammates and coaches from the minute he arrived in Columbus and is firmly in contention for the backup job behind Kansas State transfer Will Howard.

Conference champion: Ohio State over Oregon

The answer to who wins the Big Ten likely boils down to two things — overall talent and quarterback play. The teams that are most consistent in those two areas will tangle at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for a Big Ten title game.

From an overall talent perspective, the choice is almost certainly Ohio State. The Buckeyes are returning 14 starters from last year’s team, led by a handful of motivated veterans who bypassed the 2024 NFL Draft to return to school: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, DT Tyleik Williams, DE JT Tuimoloau and DE Jack Sawyer. They landed some of the most impactful transfers in the country, headlined by Judkins and former Alabama safety Caleb Downs. And they added one of the most respected offensive minds in football by plucking then-UCLA HC Kelly to be the offensive coordinator. That should be more than enough to get them to Indy.

In terms of quarterback play, Oregon seems poised to have the steadiest production at that position following the transfer addition of Gabriel, now in his sixth season. Gabriel has the most career starts (49), wins (33), passing yards (14,865) and passing touchdowns (125) of any active quarterback. He has elite weapons on the perimeter in wideouts Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, and he’ll be protected by arguably the best offensive tackle combination in the conference, with Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius. Expect the Ducks to contend for the title in their debut season, though they’ll ultimately fall short against the Buckeyes.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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