2024 NASCAR playoffs: Rankings, predictions, outlook for all 16 drivers

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoff drivers are a blend of those who have swapped the mantle as the most dominant during the year and those who pulled off an upset to make the 16-driver field.

NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the championship hopefuls still compete each week as well – runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated — setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix. The driver who finishes the best there (they don’t get stage points) is crowned the champion.

In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total, except for the championship race.

The tracks:

• Opening round: Atlanta (1.54-mile superspeedway), Watkins Glen (road course), Bristol (0.533-mile concrete oval).
• Quarterfinal round: Kansas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.66-mile superspeedway), Charlotte (road course).
• Semifinal round: Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval).
• Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).

Here are my playoff rankings 1-16, from the driver with the best shot to win the title to worst.

1. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 1st, +35 points on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 32nd

Larson has led more laps and more miles than any other driver this year. He has more wins than any other driver this year. And he has more playoff points than any other driver this year. So why not make him the prohibitive championship favorite? He’s still a feast-or-famine driver with six races this year where he has wrecked out and four races where he has led 40 or more laps and hasn’t won.

Prediction: Champion

2. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 2nd, +27 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 34th

Bell’s win at Phoenix earlier this season puts him high on this list because if he can get to Phoenix, then he will be a favorite to win there again. He ranks second in playoff points. The thing to worry about: he had bad days at Talladega and Las Vegas earlier this year and if he has them this year, he might not make it through the second or third rounds.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title

3. Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 3rd, +23 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 30th

Reddick won the regular-season title, but he hasn’t had such a convincing season that one would think he would make it to Phoenix. And by convincing, we mean wins (he has just two). Still, he has 11 top-5s and 18 top-10s in 26 races. The tracks in the second and third rounds are good tracks for him, so he has a path that should give him confidence.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title

4. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 5th, +13 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 2nd

Blaney maybe wouldn’t be this high without the memories of last year when he got hot when it counted. Also, he was third at Vegas and fifth at Martinsville earlier this year, so if he can get to the third round, he should be OK. Key emphasis on should. He proved last year he can handle the pressure when it is on late in the season as he finished second at Homestead, won Martinsville and then finished second at Phoenix to capture the title. But the years prior weren’t so kind. 

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round

5. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 6th, +10 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 23rd

Hamlin should be higher in these rankings, but the 10 playoff points he lost for the engine penalty could loom large. Believe it or not, he has just two top-5s at the seven playoff tracks that have had races this year. Getting out of the third round could be a problem, just as it was last year. But this is a team that consistently has one of the fastest cars on the track. If they execute, they make it to the championship round.

Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (again)

6. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +17 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 17th

The championship favorite after the first eight races with three wins, Byron has just three top-5 finishes in the last 10 races. That won’t get him to the championship round (unless he can win Martinsville like he did earlier this year). Did we mention he was the championship favorite after the first eight races? That seems so long ago but the potential is there.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round

7. Brad Keselowski
RFK Racing No. 6 Ford
Position: 8th, +3 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 33rd

Keselowski is great at Bristol, great at Talladega, great at Las Vegas and should never be counted out. But each round will be a slog for him. Only once this year has he rattled off three consecutive top-10 finishes, and with as few playoff points as he has, he’d probably have to do that in at least a couple of rounds to advance. 

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round

8. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 7th, +9 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 15th

Elliott hasn’t finished better than ninth in his last nine races. Much like his teammate Byron, his recent inconsistency will not get him to the final round. But he is one of only two drivers to not have a finish of 20th or worse at the seven playoff tracks they have raced at this year (Truex is the other), and his ability on both road courses and drafting tracks should give his fans hope that he will make it to Phoenix.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round

9. Martin Truex Jr.
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota
Position: 15th, -1 behind cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 12th

Truex has finished outside the top 20 in 10 of his last 14 races. That’s zero momentum as he rides off into the sunset of his retirement year. But he’s still a great driver with a great team. No one would be surprised if he gets on a roll all the way to the championship. But no one would be surprised at a first-round exit.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round

10. Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 12th, even with cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 27th

Much like his season and career, Bowman has had good runs and mediocre runs at all the tracks in the playoffs. So it’s hard to have confidence he will get all that deep into the playoffs just through outracing the competition. But if others have misfortune — and they will — he will capitalize. His 20th at Phoenix earlier this year makes it hard to see him win it even if he could get there.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round

11. Ty Gibbs
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota
Position: 16th, -1 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 10th

Gibbs has never won a Cup race and has never competed in the Cup playoffs. The 2022 Xfinity Series champion can lean on that experience, but expect this to be another learning situation for the young driver. The best part for Gibbs is he has shown more speed the last few weeks — and he has absolutely nothing to lose.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round

12. Joey Logano
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: 9th, +2 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 28th

Logano didn’t finish in the top-5 in any of the tracks in the playoffs earlier this year. He is going to have to scratch and claw — something he is very good at — to advance in any of the rounds. He’s a two-time champion and often outperforms expectations in the playoffs. He’ll need to do that to have a chance at a third title.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round

13. Austin Cindric
Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Position: 10th, +2 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 4th

Cindric finished outside the top 20 in all but one of the playoff tracks earlier this year. He is going to need to pull off some unexpected wins, or even top-10s, for any shot to advance. Having a road course in each of the first two rounds of the playoffs could help him do just that.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round

14. Daniel Suarez
Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet
Position: 11th, +1 on cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 1st

Suarez won Atlanta earlier this year in one of the closest finishes in NASCAR history. That likely will be the biggest highlight of his season unless he can find some speed. He just hasn’t shown any consistency, but having Atlanta and Watkins Glen to open the playoffs should fit into his wheelhouse for at least a good playoff start.

Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round

15. Chase Briscoe
Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Position: 13th, even with cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 31st

Briscoe hopes to pull off more surprises in the playoffs to give people something to feel good about as far as Stewart-Haas Racing in its final season. But his win in the regular-season finale at Darlington likely will have to be enough. He had just one top-10 — a second at New Hampshire — in the 12 races leading up to Darlington.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round

16. Harrison Burton
Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford
Position: 14th, even with cutoff
2024 Atlanta-February Finish: 11th

Burton pulled off the upset at Daytona to make the playoffs. And he could surprise some people at Atlanta (11th earlier this year) and Talladega (10th earlier this year). But anywhere else is a longshot. Much like Briscoe, though, few expected him to be in this position and so the pressure should be more off than on.

Prediction: Eliminated in opening round

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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