Who are true Big Ten contenders? Uncovering truths about Penn State, Nebraska, more

Partway through his opening statement during a regularly scheduled Monday news conference, Penn State head coach James Franklin made a comment that caught the attention of a local reporter. Franklin, whose team defeated then-No. 19 Illinois at home over the weekend, had already run through the latest injury updates and a statistical recap of the win when the tone seemed to shift, albeit only slightly. He slipped in a quick remark about how important it is for the Nittany Lions to take “a significant step” in their next game — and then quickly veered into an overview of UCLA, whom Penn State will face on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. 

“One of the things I talked to the team about is the importance of us taking a significant step this week,” Franklin said. “And not having to be one of those teams you see all over the country that has to have a setback first before they make a wake-up call and take a significant step. So we need to do that this week. Very, very important for us.”

Toward the end of Franklin’s interview session, a local reporter followed up on the idea of Penn State needing to take a significant step against the Bruins this week. He asked for a bit more specificity about Franklin’s choice of words and wanted to know if there were things that didn’t happen against Illinois that were concerning to the coach and his staff. 

“In general, we’ve got to get better,” Franklin said. “We shouldn’t have to have a setback. We’ve got to just make sure we’re not getting complacent and get better every week, individually and collectively. Also, the areas that are obvious we need to get cleaned up — like penalties — we can’t just keep talking about it. You guys don’t want to hear it, the fans don’t want to hear me keep talking about it, we want it fixed. And ultimately, as coaches, we’ve got to make sure that happens. Also, the players have to make sure that that happens.”

Buried between the lines of Franklin’s message was the overarching idea that Penn State, which is 4-0 for a fourth consecutive season, must continue to make strides before its ready to compete for either a Big Ten Championship or a national championship. Not since 2021 have the Nittany Lions dropped a conference game to someone other than Ohio State or Michigan, but finding the proper foothold to summit that final peak has proved elusive during Franklin’s tenure. A reconfigured conference schedule in an expanded Big Ten means Penn State won’t face the Wolverines in 2024, but they still host Ohio State in early November. And until Franklin finds a way to topple one of the league’s elite, it will be difficult to view Penn State as anything other than a good team that isn’t quite great. 

The Nittany Lions are far from the only Big Ten team with that designation amid a logjammed start to the season. Ten schools navigated August and September with one or fewer blemishes on their respective records, but only No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Oregon seem to land squarely among the sport’s elite. That means there is plenty of discussion to be had about the rest when it comes to who’s for real and who’s sky is about to fall, who’s a legitimate College Football Playoff contender and who lacks the staying power to make it that far. So let’s place the Buckeyes and Ducks aside and put everyone else under the microscope: 

Penn State

Record: 4-0 overall, 1-0 Big Ten

Best win: 21-7 home victory over then-No. 19 Illinois

Remaining schedule: UCLA (home), No. 11 USC (away), Wisconsin (away), No. 3 Ohio State (home), Washington (home), Purdue (away), Minnesota (away), Maryland (home)

Things to like: With a few strong early-season performances, tailbacks Nicholas Singleton (2,221 career yards) and Kaytron Allen (2,058 career yards) became just the second set of Penn State teammates to eclipse 2,000 yards each. They’re anchoring a rushing attack that ranks ninth nationally and first in the Big Ten at more than 250 yards per game thus far. First-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who was previously the head coach at Indiana, is overseeing an aggressive unit that ranks fourth overall and seventh in scoring to pick up right where former coordinator Manny Diaz left off in 2023.  

Causes for concern: The Nittany Lions are one of the more heavily penalized teams in the country this season with an average of 66 penalty yards per game, which ranks 97th nationally and among the bottom six in the Big Ten. They’re also tied for 129th in field goal percentage (40%) after starting kicker Sander Sahaydak missed two more against No. 19 Illinois last Saturday. Sahaydak is 2-for-5 on field goals this season. Allowing 24 first-half points to Bowling Green was an eye-opener in a come-from-behind victory in Week 2. 

Verdict: College Football Playoff or bust.

Michigan

Record: 4-1 overall, 2-0 Big Ten

Best win: 27-24 home victory over then-No. 11 USC

Remaining schedule: Washington (away), No. 24 Illinois (away), Michigan State (home), No. 6 Oregon (home), No. 23 Indiana (away), Northwestern (home), No. 3 Ohio State (away)

Things to like: The emergence of converted linebacker Kalel Mullings as one of the more dynamic tailbacks in the Big Ten has given Michigan an offensive focal point in the post-Blake Corum era. Mullings ranks eighth nationally in rushing with 540 yards through the first five games and continues to produce against defenses that know the Wolverines are running the ball. A hellacious defensive line led by interior stars Mason Graham (three sacks) and Kenneth Grant (two sacks) is among the best in college football. Michigan is equally adept at stopping the run and has limited opponents to 68.8 rushing yards per game, the program’s lowest mark through its first five games since 2006. 

Causes for concern: Instability and ineffectiveness at quarterback has sunk the Wolverines’ passing offense to 130th in the country at 115.4 yards per game. Starter Alex Orji has failed to top 100 yards in each of the last two weeks since taking over for Davis Warren, and the only teams with less-potent passing attacks than Michigan are New Mexico State, Louisiana-Monroe, Army and Air Force. An inexperienced and injury-plagued secondary has been exposed at times this season — most notably by Texas and USC — and the Wolverines now sit outside the top 100 in passing defense with an allowance of 248.8 yards per game. 

Verdict: Likely to fade. 

USC

Record: 3-1 overall, 1-1 Big Ten

Best win: 27-20 neutral site victory over then-No. 13 LSU

Remaining schedule: Minnesota (away), No. 7 Penn State (home), Maryland (away), Rutgers (home), Washington (away), Nebraska (home), UCLA (away), No. 14 Notre Dame (home)

Things to like: Head coach Lincoln Riley seems to have made an excellent hire in former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, whose group ranks 11th nationally in opponent third-down conversion rate (26.5%) and is tied for 12th in opponent red zone conversion rate (66.7%). None of USC’s opponents have exceeded 27 points in a game after nine teams eclipsed that mark against the Trojans last season. Any lingering questions about how USC would replace former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams at quarterback have been answered through the steady play of veteran Miller Moss, who has completed 106 of 162 passes (65.4%) for 1,198 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Causes for concern: A leaky and overmatched offensive line has surrendered 49 quarterback pressures through USC’s first four games, which has exposed Moss to far more hits than Riley would feel comfortable with. Personnel changes at the tackle positions seemed to help slightly in the second half against Michigan, but the amount of punishment Moss has absorbed is concerning. Lynn’s defense has played a bend-but-don’t-break style thus far and struggles to stop the run. The Trojans’ allowance of 5.01 yards per carry is tied for 111th nationally and 16th in the Big Ten.   

Verdict: Fringe contender for the College Football Playoff.  

Iowa

Record: 3-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten

Best win: 31-14 road victory over Minnesota

Remaining schedule: No. 3 Ohio State (away), Washington (home), Michigan State (away), Northwestern (home), Wisconsin (home), UCLA (away), Maryland (away), Nebraska (home)

Things to like: Tailback Kaleb Johnson has blossomed into one of the best players in the country this season with 82 carries for 685 yards (second nationally) and nine touchdowns (tied for third nationally). He’s spearheading an improved Iowa offense that ranks 43rd in third-down conversion rate (45%) and 14th in time of possession (33:10 per game). Iowa’s defense is among the best in the country and ranks fourth nationally against the run by allowing just 62 rushing yards per game. This week’s game against No. 3 Ohio State could be the last ranked opponent the Hawkeyes face this season. They don’t play Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, USC or Illinois.  

Causes for concern: Even the healthy return of quarterback Cade McNamara, who missed most of last season with a torn ACL, hasn’t been enough to enliven an Iowa passing attack short on talent at wide receiver. The Hawkeyes still rank 124th in passing at just 147.5 yards per game and have only thrown four passing touchdowns this season. Their red zone touchdown rate of 64.3% ranks outside the top 60 nationally with only nine trips to the end zone in 14 chances. Any injury to Johnson, small or large, could prove catastrophic for such a one-dimensional offense.  

Verdict: Favorable schedule gives the Hawkeyes a chance to contend in the Big Ten. 

Nebraska 

Record: 4-1 overall, 1-1 Big Ten

Best win: 28-10 home victory over Colorado

Remaining schedule: Rutgers (home), No. 23 Indiana (away), No. 3 Ohio State (away), UCLA (home), No. 11 USC (away), Wisconsin (home), Iowa (away)

Things to like: Through five games, there’s little doubt that Nebraska has one of the best defenses in the country this season. The Cornhuskers rank ninth nationally in scoring defense (12.2 points per game), 19th in total defense (274.2 yards per game) and 15th against the run (85.4 yards per game). True freshman Dylan Raiola has been excellent amid sky-high expectations by completing 70.4% of his passes while throwing for 1,224 yards with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions. His future — and Nebraska’s future by extension — look exceptionally bright over the next few seasons. 

Causes for concern: The Cornhuskers have an extremely difficult schedule to finish the season with road games against as many as four ranked opponents, assuming Iowa can climb back into the top 25 between now and the end of November. Nebraska’s remaining strength of schedule is the 10th-toughest in the country, according to Pro Football Focus, and that won’t be easy for a freshman quarterback to navigate. Head coach Matt Rhule’s team also has a severe penalty problem with 40 already this season, which is tied for 119th nationally and third-most in the Big Ten, ahead of only Maryland and Washington. 

Verdict: Hype could fizzle by November.

Indiana

Record: 5-0 overall, 2-0 Big Ten

Best win: 42-28 home victory over Maryland

Remaining schedule: Northwestern (away), Nebraska (home), Washington (home), Michigan State (away), No. 10 Michigan (home), No. 3 Ohio State (away), Purdue (home)

Things to like: Through the first five games of the Curt Cignetti era, Indiana has emerged as one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Hoosiers rank third nationally in scoring (48.8 points per game), ninth in total offense (513 yards per game) and third in third-down conversion rate (57.4%). Transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke, formerly of Ohio, is completing more than 73% of his passes while throwing for 1,372 yards (13th in the country) with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Maryland is the only team to score more than 14 points against a revitalized IU defense that has forced seven turnovers this season. 

Causes for concern: There’s little doubt that a subpar level of competition has helped fuel Indiana’s sizzling start to the season. The Hoosiers’ strength of schedule thus far ranks 113th nationally, according to Pro Football Focus, which is the easiest in the Big Ten and the second-easiest among all Power 4 programs. But the only ranked opponents left on Indiana’s schedule are Michigan and Ohio State, and it’s not impossible to envision the Hoosiers upsetting the offensively challenged Wolverines. A two-loss season — or better — is within reach for Cignetti and Indiana.

Verdict: Dark horse contender for the College Football Playoff. 

Rutgers

Record: 4-0 overall, 1-0 Big Ten

Best win: 21-18 home victory over Washington

Remaining schedule: Nebraska (away), Wisconsin (home), UCLA (home), No. 11 USC (away), Minnesota (home), Maryland (away), No. 24 Illinois (home), Michigan State (away)

Things to like: The Scarlet Knights have a clear identity under head coach Greg Schiano, whose second stint at Rutgers is on an impressive trajectory. Tailback Kyle Monangai ranks fifth nationally in rushing with 589 yards and six scores and is the unquestioned workhorse of the offense. Only three tailbacks in college football have carried the ball more than Monangai (97 attempts) this season. Rutgers pairs its excellent running game with a strong defense coordinated by Joe Harasymiak, formerly of Minnesota. The Scarlet Knights rank second nationally in red zone defense and have only allowed opponents to score on 54.6% of drives that venture inside the 20-yard line. 

Causes for concern: A non-conference schedule that included games against Howard (44-7), Akron (49-17) and Virginia Tech (26-23) wasn’t the most challenging slate Rutgers could have faced, especially with the Hokies slipping below .500 after last week’s loss to Miami. But maybe that’s not so bad considering how kind the Big Ten schedule makers were to the Scarlet Knights, who don’t have to face Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State or Oregon this season. The uneven play from turnover-prone quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who transferred from Minnesota, will always be something to watch. 

Verdict: Should hang around the top 25 all season. 

Illinois

Record: 4-1 overall, 1-1 Big Ten

Best win: 31-24 road victory over then-No. 22 Nebraska

Remaining schedule: Purdue (home), No. 10 Michigan (home), No. 6 Oregon (away), Minnesota (home), Michigan State (home), Rutgers (away), Northwestern (away)

Things to like: A huge defensive improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 under coordinator Aaron Henry has answered one of Illinois’ biggest questions entering the 2024 season. The Illini have improved from 63rd nationally in total defense during Henry’s first season to 34th so far this fall as a revamped secondary has limited opponents to just two passing plays of 30-plus yards, which is tied for sixth-fewest in the country. The decision-making from quarterback Luke Altmyer, who tossed 10 interceptions last season, seems markedly better with 11 touchdowns and only one interception thus far. He is completing 70% of his passes through five games. 

Causes for concern: A difficult month of October includes games against No. 10 Michigan and No. 6 Oregon that might test the team’s resolve after already falling to then-No. 9 Penn State last weekend. But the Illini have a fairly soft November slate against Minnesota, Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern that could vault them back into the upper echelon of the Big Ten. The offensive line must improve after allowing 14 sacks through the first five games. No other team in the conference has surrendered more. 

Verdict: Good enough to make a run in November. 

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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