Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
College football Week 6 is here, and I couldn’t be more pumped.
This means the next few days will be exciting for fans who love football and for bettors looking for fun ways to wager a few bucks.
I’ve already given you my best bets for Week 6 games, but now it’s time to have a little fun with my “Bear Bytes.”
These little “bytes,” as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your coworkers at the water cooler.
Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research.
Only two teams have played at least three games against Power Four competition and won them all — BYU and Notre Dame.
(All times ET)
Friday, Oct. 4
No. 10 Michigan @ Washington (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Expecting a close one in Seattle? Over the last 25 seasons, there have been 18 top-10 teams that were underdogs against unranked teams this late in the season. Only seven of the 18 won the game outright, but 13 of the 18 covered.
Saturday, Oct. 5
UCLA @ No. 7 Penn State (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
UCLA is 0-3 vs. Power Four teams this season and has been outscored by 67 points. Among Power Four teams, only Purdue has been outscored by more against Power Four teams (-94). Additionally, the Bruins have allowed 3.67 points per drive against Power Four teams this season (worst among Power Four teams). In two games against Power Four opponents, Penn State has allowed 3.8 yards per play (second among Power Four teams vs. Power Four opponents; Tennessee 3.1).
No. 9 Missouri @ No. 25 Texas A&M (noon, ABC)
Since 2000, Texas A&M is 3-11 at Kyle Field when the Aggies are ranked and hosting a top-10 team. That spans six different coaches (R.C. Slocum 0-2, Dennis Franchione 0-1, Mike Sherman 1-1, Kevin Sumlin 1-4, Jimbo Fisher 1-2 and Mike Elko 0-1). The Aggies were favored in five of those games and lost four, including the season-opener against Notre Dame.
Pitt @ North Carolina (noon, ESPN 2)
Pitt hasn’t started 5-0 since 1991. The Panthers would finish 6-5 that year. In the last two weeks, North Carolina has allowed 70 to James Madison and blew a 20-0, second-half lead to Duke.
Navy @ Air Force (noon, CBS)
Underdogs have covered 18 of the last 23 games between service academies. That includes nine of 12 games with four outright wins in which a team was at least a TD favorite. It’s 4-0 Navy at Air Force and 4-0 Army at Tulsa. It’s the first time since 1945 that Army and Navy are both 4-0. Both went on to have a 5-0 start that season.
Purdue @ Wisconsin (noon, BTN)
If Wisconsin is shockingly upset by Purdue, it would be the fourth time in five years the Badgers have a losing record after five games. From 1991-2019, the Badgers never had a losing record through five games.
Auburn @ No. 5 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Hugh Freeze is 4-10 in his last 14 games vs. FBS opponents and 3-9 in his last 12 vs. Power Four teams. In Auburn’s last seven games against Georgia away from Jordan-Hare, the Tigers have scored four touchdowns, are 0-7, and have been outscored 216-54. In three games against Power Four teams, Auburn has committed 11 turnovers, the most among Power Four teams. That’s good for a Power Four-worst -9 TO margin.
Iowa @ No. 3 Ohio State (3:30 p.m, CBS)
Iowa has been shut out in its last three games against ranked opponents, losing by a combined score of 92-0. Iowa has lost seven straight when facing ranked opponents by a combined score of 235-44, scoring no more than 17 in any game. Ohio State is the only Power Four team to have played only one game against a Power Four opponent. That was last week’s 38-7 win at Michigan State.
Texas, Ohio State in Joel Klatt’s 12-team CFP bracket for October
Indiana @ Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Indiana hasn’t started 6-0 since the Hoosiers’ 1967 Rose Bowl season.
No. 12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Under Shane Beamer, the Gamecocks have faced six top-15 teams. South Carolina has pulled three upsets — twice as a ‘dog of at least 14 points — and covered five of the six games.
Rutgers @ Nebraska (4 p.m., FS1)
Rutgers has lost 15 straight conference games as an underdog, covering only three. The last win came in 2021 at Indiana.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (4 p.m., ESPN2)
The last time Oklahoma State did not have a winning record after six games was in 2007 (3-3). That was Mike Gundy’s third year in Stillwater, and, of course, the same season which his famous “I’m a man, I’m 40” comments took place.
No. 14 Clemson @ Florida State (7 p.m., ESPN)
Florida State has been a home underdog of greater than 14 points twice and lost those two games by a combined score of 104-25. The Seminoles lost to Clemson 59-10 in 2018 as an 18.5-point ‘dog and 45-15 to Florida in 2008 as a 16.5-point ’dog. Since the start of 2022, Mike Norvell went 21-3 with Jordan Travis as his quarterback, winning his final 17 starts. Without Travis at QB, Norvell and FSU’s mark has fallen to 3-5 in that span, including 1-4 this year.
CFB Week 6 Bets Bets: USC vs. Minnesota and Georgia Tech vs. Duke
No. 11 USC @ Minnesota (7:30 p.m., BTN)
Since 2021, Lincoln Riley has been a favorite away from home 14 times. His team has won 10 of the 14 games but are just 3-11 against the spread (ATS) (2-8 at USC).
Baylor @ No. 16 Iowa State (7:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
Iowa State last started 5-0 in 1980.
UCF @ Florida (7:45 p.m, SEC Network)
This is the fourth straight home game against an FBS opponent that Florida is an underdog. The Gators were a home ‘dog in just four of their previous 26 home games when facing FBS opponents. From 1992-2011, Florida was a home ’dog in just four of 117 home games against FBS teams.
Duke @ Georgia Tech (8 p.m, ACC Network)
Since 1979, there have been eight teams 5-0 or better that were underdogs of at least seven points to an unranked team. Seven of the eight lost, with the only win being 6-0 Liberty. In that instance, the Flames won 38-35 at Virginia Tech in 2020 as 17-point underdogs.
Syracuse @ No. 25 UNLV (9 p.m., FS1)
This is the first time since 2008 that UNLV is favored over a Power Four (formerly Power Five) opponent. UNLV beat Iowa State 34-31 as a 2.5-point favorite that day. Since then, the Rebels have been an underdog in 25 straight games against Power Four or Five opponents. The last time UNLV was this big a favorite over a Power Four or Five team? That was in 2003 when UNLV lost 46-22 to Kansas as an 11-point favorite.
Miami @ Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
Mario Cristobal faced Justin Wilcox three times while coaching a ranked Oregon team against an unranked Cal squad. Cristobal’s teams didn’t cover any of the three, including losing at Cal in 2020 as a 9.5-point favorite. In those three games, Cristobal’s team averaged 19.3 points per game.
Mario Cristobal coaching ranked teams against unranked Wilcox teams:
2021: Spread, -13.5; Won 24-17
2020: Spread, -9.5; Lost 21-17
2019: Spread, -21.5; Won 17-7
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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