2024 NFL Week 5 betting recap: ‘Shaping up to be the worst NFL weekend of the year’

For a change of pace, the public betting masses finally got the best of the bookmakers, in NFL Week 5 odds. That’s what happens when popular favorites deliver.

And most of them delivered in Sunday’s early window of games — or very early, in the case of the Minnesota Vikings.

It wasn’t just who won and covered either. It was also all the points scored, as recreational bettors love wagering on the Over.

“It looks like a great weekend for the bettors. Although it’s been four straight big weeks for us, so we were probably due here,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said Sunday evening.

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country help recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Vikings, Commanders and Ravens, Oh My

All week long, oddsmakers at multiple books noted the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings were a popular bet. The Vikes were 2.5-point favorites vs. the New York Jets for a Sunday game in London.

Pregame, BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton noted the significant liability.

“It’s all Vikings. Big-time public side. This is the biggest ticket discrepancy of the day,” Shelton said.

Minnesota then proved the public right. The Vikings got out to a 17-0 lead and made it stand up, winning 23-17 to move to 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Just as public a side were Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders, at home against the Cleveland Browns. 

The Commanders closed as 3-point favorites and drilled the Browns 34-13.

“That was a bad one for the book. Nobody wanted the Browns, and they were right not to,” Cipollini said.

The capper in Sunday’s early games: The Baltimore Ravens edging the Cincinnati Bengals 41-38 in overtime. At that point, Cipollini offered this summary:

“It’s shaping up to be the worst NFL weekend of the year. Lots of points and the wrong teams winning.”

Giving Back

While NFL bettors did well overall, they gave some money back in the late Sunday window. A pair of 7-point road underdogs pulled off outright upsets:

• The Arizona Cardinals erased a 23-10 halftime deficit to beat the San Francisco 49ers 24-23.
• The New York Giants knocked off the Seattle Seahawks 29-20.

“The Giants’ outright win helped push us into the black so far today,” Prime Sportsbook’s Joe Brennan Jr. said.

San Fran was surely in a lot of moneyline parlays. So the Niners’ outright loss had bettors tearing up those tickets.

However, the Green Bay Packers were a very public play against the Los Angeles Rams. Green Bay was a 3-point road favorite and won 24-19.

“The public [was] firmly on Green Bay. Other than Washington and Seattle, Green Bay [was] the most public team for us this week,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook.

On Campus

College football Week 6 odds didn’t have the massive attraction — and thrilling finish — of Alabama vs. Georgia. But there were some massive upsets of popular teams, putting a hurt on recreational bettors’ wallets.

As fate would have it, Alabama was the biggest victim, a week after its thrilling win over Georgia. The Crimson Tide were 23.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt and shockingly lost outright 40-35.

Just off that result, sportsbooks started counting their money.

“It was a great Saturday. Anytime Alabama loses, it’s going to be good for us,” BetMGM’s Cipollini said.

Added BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker:

“This is a massive result. Very, very good to have Vandy win outright.”

A big reason why it was such a good result for sportsbooks — and bad for the customers — was in-game wagering. Alabama never led, with its biggest deficits coming late in the second quarter (23-7) and with five minutes left in the game (40-28).

But everyone was banking on an Alabama comeback, betting Crimson Tide moneyline throughout the game.

“It was all ‘Bama moneyline while they were down,” Drucker said.

Parlays/moneyline parlays were a key factor, as well.

“A monumental result for us, especially regarding parlays. Easily the best outcome we’ve seen thus far in the NCAA football season,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook.

Few Vandy Faithful

Vanderbilt was in the +1000 range on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet profited $1,000 ($1,100 total payout) on the upset. However, facing a Heisman Trophy favorite in Jalen Milroe and the top-ranked team in the nation, the Commodores didn’t take many flier bets.

“There were only seven tickets on Vandy moneyline, for a total of $100,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

So those seven tickets in total paid out just $1,000 or so to a few fortunate Vegas customers.

However, Vandy’s SEC and in-state rival Tennessee was very popular on Saturday. Nationally at BetMGM, the Vols took more point-spread tickets than any other team on the college football Week 6 oddsboard.

That worked out about as well as it did for Alabama, though not in quite the same fashion. No. 4 Tennessee trailed Arkansas 3-0 at halftime, then put up two quick third-quarter touchdowns to take a 14-3 lead.

But stunningly, the Vols — 14-point road favorites — didn’t score again and gave up the final 16 points. Arkansas got the clinching TD with 1:17 remaining to pull off the 19-14 upset.

So the public betting masses got busted there, as well. In Week 6 at DraftKings Sportsbook, the two most-bet teams on the point spread, by ticket count, were Tennessee and Alabama.

Interestingly, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said the ‘Bama and Tennessee losses weren’t key to his day.

“We had good two-way action on the popular games. In the less popular games, we just got pounded on,” Andrews said.

More College Knowledge

A couple of other results stood out in college football Week 6 odds:

• No. 11 USC, an 8.5-point favorite, losing outright to Minnesota 24-17
• No. 8 Miami digging out of a 38-10 third-quarter hole to beat California 39-38.

The Hurricanes closed as 10-point road favorites and were getting run out of the building. Less than a minute into the fourth quarter, Cal got a field goal to take a 38-18 lead.

But Miami scored three straight TDs, the last with just 26 seconds remaining, to nab the 39-38 win.

With 12:16 remaining and the ‘Canes facing third-and-1 at Cal’s 45-yard line, ESPN Analytics had the Golden Bears’ win probability at 99.3%. Miami didn’t convert on third down, then took an illegal motion penalty on fourth down to make it fourth-and-6. 

But Miami converted with a 7-yard gain on its way to the first of those three consecutive touchdowns.

Pity those who took Cal +300 on the moneyline to pull the outright upset. A $100 bet would’ve profited $300 (total payout $400) and seemed like a sure thing early in the fourth quarter. A 99.3 percent chance, right? 

But that’s sports betting for you.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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