Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s college football Week 9 study guide

This past Saturday was another electric day in college football. 

Alabama lost to Tennessee— making this the first time the Tide have recorded two losses in October for the first time since 2004, Georgia took down top-ranked Texas in a highly contested game despite what the score showed, Miami and Louisville combined for 97 points in a seven-point game that saw the Canes narrowly escape a loss for the third consecutive game, and BYU and Iowa State each won by three points to remain as the only undefeated teams in the Big 12. 

It was a really tough weekend for the blue blood programs, as USC, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Florida State all lost in addition to Bama and Texas. Those schools are some of the most winningest in the history of the sport, truly highlighting how parity is at an all-time high. 

With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what’s notable for the upcoming week.     

I’ve decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football. 

This week, four ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with five ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We’ll get into those shortly. Six of the teams ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll play this weekend, and 20 of the top 25 have action as well. 

Let’s dive into my thoughts and games to watch for in Week 9.

Friday night clash in the Mountain West

We’ve talked a ton about Boise State, and their storyline keeps on getting better every week. In a huge Friday night matchup, the 5-1 Broncos will travel to Las Vegas to take on the 6-1 UNLV Rebels. This game has massive ramifications in regards to who will win the Mountain West, and possibly even have CFP implications as both of these teams could take that G5 conference champion spot. Ashton Jeanty has already dominated Power conference defenses like Oregon and Washington State, but can he keep up this ridiculous pace and remain one of the front runners for the Heisman Trophy? Friday night should be a great one. 

Scarlet Knights visit Los Angeles 

After a 3-1 start, the Trojans have lost three straight conference games and sit below .500. This week they host a Rutgers team that has also dropped three straight after starting off 4-0.  USC has not started 3-5 since the 2001 season, while the Scarlet Knights are looking to avoid starting 3-5 or worse for the seventh time since 2015. Lincoln Riley can’t really be on the hot seat in year, can he? For perspective, since October 12th of last year, Vanderbilt is 5-7, Cal is 6-8, UCLA is 6-9, Colorado is 5-8, Florida is 5-8, Kentucky is 5-9, and USC is 5-9. That means USC would be 5-10 in that span with a loss on Friday. One last nugget to leave you with: Riley has never lost four consecutive games in a single season before in his career.       

Undefeated Pitt

How about the Panthers? They join Miami as the only undefeated ACC teams left, and take on a sneaky good Syracuse team on Thursday night. Pitt hasn’t started a season 7-0 since doing so in consecutive years from 1981-82. Cuse’s only loss this season came against Stanford in a Friday game that ended 26-24. This should be a fun quarterback matchup as Kyle McCord is seventh in all of FBS in passing yards (2,160) and tied for fifth in touchdown throws (19), while Alabama transfer Eli Holstein leads all FBS freshmen in passing yards (1,700) and passing touchdowns (15). Fran Brown will try to lead the Orange to just their second 6-1 start since 2000 and their first since 2022. 

Lovely times in Louisiana  

Louisiana is where it’s at! Tulane is 5-2 and undefeated in AAC play (and probably is the best G5 team), No. 8 LSU is 6-1 and undefeated in SEC play, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-1 and undefeated in Sun Belt play, and UL Monroe is 5-1 and also undefeated in the Sun Belt. This is only the second time since 2000 that those four programs have combined for 20+ wins through Week 8 of the season. The Tigers have what should be a great matchup against the 14th ranked Aggies this Saturday. That game will surely have SEC championship implications. The Green Wave are currently 7.5-point favorites against North   Texas, the WarHawks are seven-point underdogs against South Alabama, and Louisiana is on bye this week. Let’s see how the state performs in Week 9.

Oh, and we’ll just pretend that 3-4 Louisiana Tech doesn’t exist for now. 

Can Navy do it?

The Midshipmen are a whopping 6-0— their first time doing so since 1979, and are also 4-0 in AAC play. Navy is currently a 13.5-point underdog against Notre Dame despite their hot start. They haven’t beat the Irish since 2016, and have only done so three other times since 1964 (2010, 2009, 2007). Since 1978, there have been 17 teams to be 6-0 or better that were at least a 13.5-point underdog in a regular season game. Eleven of the 14 losses came by at least 14 points and seven were by at least 24 points. But three did win outright— Liberty +17 at Virginia Tech in 2020, Auburn +17 at Florida in 1994 and Georgia Tech +13.5 at Virginia in 1990. Can Navy become the fourth? 

Upset alert in Madison?

Penn State is in a tricky spot this week. They have a massive matchup against Ohio State next week, but trips to Madison have rarely been easy for them.

Check it out below:

PENN STATE ON ROAD vs WISCONSIN

SINCE 1996

• 2021: Penn State 16, Wisconsin 10
• 2013: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 24
• 2011: Wisconsin 45, Penn State 7
• 2008: Penn State 48, Wisconsin 7
• 2006: Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
• 2004: Wisconsin 16, Penn State 3
• 2002: Penn State 34, Wisconsin 31
• 1998: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 3
• 1996: Penn State 23, Wisconsin 20

That comes out to a 5-4 record for the Nittany Lions at Camp Randall since joining the Big Ten in 1990, with four of them decided by seven points or less. Since getting drilled in the second half at SC, Wisconsin has beaten up on three of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Purdue, Northwestern and Rutgers to the tune of 117-16. Drew Allar threw multiple interceptions for the first time in his career in the nail-biter against USC, so let’s see how he bounces back against a defense that has yet to give up double-digit points in a game this month.   

Cougars in rare spot

BYU just keeps winning! And yet, they’re only 1.5-point underdogs against a 3-4 UCF team this week. To be fair, the Knights did almost pull off the upset against unbeaten Iowa State this past Saturday, losing a 38-35 shootout. But here’s some context for BYU’s spot this week. Since 1978, there have been 336 games where a team 7-0 or better faced a team with a losing record. Only one has seen that team enter as an underdog— coming in 1993, when 9-0 Auburn went to 4-5 Georgia and beat the Bulldogs. Will the Cougars continue to defy expectations and keep their magical season going, or do the Knights have other ideas?

Six win teams with concerns

Simply put, there are a few 6-0 and 6-1 teams that have some real concerns. My Hurricanes for starters, have allowed 117 points in their last three games and have won those games by a combined 12 points. The defense needs some serious revamping or they’re bound to drop one soon. As mentioned above, Pitt has a tough matchup this week against Cuse and could record their first loss. They’ve got three wins by four points or fewer, including a one-point and two-point win. Duke recorded their first win in program history against FSU, but still has a point differential of -2 in ACC play. BYU’s got three one-score wins themselves and needed a miracle this past week against Oklahoma State. And there’s Illinois who uncharacteristically allowed 49 points in an overtime win against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Purdue a few weeks ago. You also can’t forget Notre Dame who dropped a game to Northern Illinois earlier this year. And the last team of this bunch that concerns me is Missouri, who needed overtime against Vanderbilt, beat Boston College by six points, and came from behind this past week in the final minute against Auburn. One of these teams is bound to lose soon.

Wild Heisman race

This Heisman race is pretty wild. Here’s a very plausible scenario… Oregon loses at least once (including the Big Ten title game), Boise State loses at least one more time (including the MWC title game), Miami loses at least once (including ACC title game), Colorado loses at least once more, Georgia wins out, and Ohio State wins out. 

What the heck happens then?

Its not like Carson Beck was great the other night. Enter Jeremiah Smith? Would some of the losses cancel out and Cam Ward or would Dillon Gabriel would still win? Just seems like there are still so many possibilities. With Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter being hampered by injuries the last couple weeks, could Shedeur Sanders enter the conversation if the Buffs continue winning and find themselves in the Big 12 title game? The CU QB is currently 50-1! Keep an eye on these players and their teams as the season progresses. Jeanty is currently the favorite at +220, followed by Ward at +250 and Gabriel at +380.

Spartans and Wolverines meet

Who would have thought Michigan and Michigan State would have identical records entering this week? The Wolverines are just four-point favorites despite the game taking place in the Big House, and with the way their offense has looked, this is anyone’s game. MSU ranks 14th in the Big Ten in scoring at 21.6 points per game, with Michigan right behind them at 21.1. The last four meetings in the series have been split at two apiece, and the home team has only won four of the last ten matchups. After the Spartans, Michigan has No. 1 Oregon, No. 13 Indiana, Northwestern, and of course— No. 4 Ohio State in the Big Game. 1939 TCU and 1943 Ohio State are the only teams in the AP poll era (since 1936) to finish below .500 after having won a major national title in the previous year (AP, BCS, coaches, CFP). Will the Wolverines become the third?

Big Noon Kickoff in Columbus

There was a lot of talk about Ohio State’s lack of defensive pressure in the loss to Oregon, and some other big game losses in recent years. Look for Ryan Day’s squad to come out swinging in this BNK matchup, as the Buckeyes are 4-0 against the Huskers since 2000— winning those games by an average of 41.3 points per game. Nebraska has lost 26 straight games against ranked opponents (the second-longest active streak behind Rutgers’ 40), has not had a six-win season since going 9-4 in 2016, and just gave up 56 points against Indiana. Can one of the most storied programs in college football ever get close to what they once were? I’m not sure if the next step will be taken in Columbus. 

Exciting Biletnifkoff race

The wide receiver play this year has been out of this world. You have two stars in Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith that we’ve been talking about all year, but there are several other studs like Tre Harris and Tetaiora McMillan who are all putting on legitimate cases to be the Biletnikoff winner this year. For perspective, Harris leads FBS with 987 receiving yards and McMillan is sixth with 780 (he put up an outrageous 304 yards in Arizona’s opener). Miami’s Xavier Restrepo also ranks top 10 in FBS in receiving yards (686), receiving yards per game (98.0), and receptions of 20+ yards (12). And let’s not forget Travis Hunter who is doing things we’ve never seen in college football with his two-way play. This will be an exciting award race to watch all season, as all of these guys are deserving of it. 

Fact or Fiction?

Here are some statements that popped into my head after this weekend. You decide whether or not they’ll come to fruition!

• Alabama will miss the CFP.
• Oregon will win the Big Ten.
• BYU will win the Big 12.
• Tulane is the best G5 team.
• Oklahoma will not make a bowl game.
• Florida State will finish 2-10.
• Clemson is the best team in the ACC.
• Shedeur Sanders will be the No. 1 pick in NFL Draft.
• Texas A&M will be in the SEC title game.
• Curt Cignetti has the Bryant Award wrapped up.
• Texas is better off with Arch Manning at QB.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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