Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
In case you haven’t noticed over the course of the past 24 months, the Detroit Lions are a point-spread-covering machine.
So, when the Lions win and cover, the public betting masses are generally served well.
Such was the case in NFL Week 9 odds with Detroit, which has become an ATM for bettors.
When you couple the Lions with other popular favorites covering the number — hello Washington Commanders, once again — it’s a boon for bettors and a bust for bookmakers.
“Too many favorites winning and covering. It was a good Sunday for the public,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country help recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Detroit Diesel
Since the middle of the 2022 season, nothing has been easier than blindly betting the Lions. Jared Goff & Co. are 30-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 38 games.
On Sunday, the Lions went to Green Bay as 2.5-point favorites and coasted to a 24-14 victory. It was part of a 10-4 ATS run for favorites so far in Week 9.
Which led to comments such as this Sunday night from sportsbook operators:
“Awful. Brutal afternoon and an even worse evening,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports at TwinSpires Sportsbook.
The Lions’ win was part of that late window of Sunday NFL kicks. Also in that window: the Los Angeles Rams, popular 1.5-point favorites at Seattle, won 27-20 in overtime. On Sunday night, the Minnesota Vikings beat the Indianapolis Colts 21-13 as 6-point home favorites.
The Philadelphia Eagles didn’t cover as 7.5-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. But by just winning, 28-23, the Eagles kept alive all the moneyline parlays. Detroit and Minnesota got those either to the pay window or kept them alive for Monday Night Football.
“The public had a good day, and I’m sure they will roll over into the Chiefs on Monday night,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said.
Kansas City is a 9-point home favorite vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions DOMINATE vs. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
In Command, In Demand
The Washington Commanders are a stunning 7-2 SU this season, already exceeding their expected season win total of 6.5. Better still for the betting crowd, the Commanders are 7-1-1 ATS, tied atop the NFL with — guess who? — Detroit.
On Sunday, Washington beat the New York Giants 27-22, covering as a 4-point road favorite by turning back a Giants 2-point attempt after a late touchdown.
Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has quickly made Washington hugely popular with the betting public.
“Our biggest need of the day was the Giants. Just super-one-way action on the Commanders,” Murray said. “It’s so bizarre seeing the Commanders as such a public team.”
At BetMGM, Washington took the most point-spread tickets and most point-spread money of any team on the NFL Week 9 oddsboard. Ditto at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the Commanders were No. 1 in bet count and money.
Giving Back
There were a few wins for the sportsbooks that helped offset the run of popular favorites. The dreadful Carolina Panthers were 7-point home underdogs to the struggling New Orleans Saints.
But the Panthers won 23-22. Carolina secured the outright upset by stopping a 2-point attempt after a late TD.
The Buffalo Bills were one of the few favorites who didn’t cover Sunday. Buffalo was -6 vs. the Miami Dolphins and needed a final-seconds field goal to win 30-27.
“The Dolphins [covering] was one of our most needed outcomes,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.
Added South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews: “Miami was good for us, Carolina was really good. And the Ravens were actually good for us.”
That wasn’t the case for other bookmakers, but Baltimore — a 9-point favorite — wiping out Denver 41-10 proved just fine at South Point.
Ohio State BEATS Penn State: ‘One of the most impressive wins in the Ryan Day era’
On Campus
College football Week 10 odds saw most sportsbooks needing Penn State, with bettors taking Ohio State in the Big Ten showdown. The Buckeyes closed as 3-point favorites and covered the spread in a 20-13 road victory.
In fact, at BetMGM, the three most-bet teams on the point spread — Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon — all won and covered. Indiana, a 7.5-point road favorite, spotted Michigan State a 10-0 lead, then rolled to a 47-10 victory. Oregon was a 14.5-point favorite at Michigan and coasted to a 38-17 win.
So the public betting masses cashed in on those three games. But BetMGM won enough decisions elsewhere to make it a profitable day.
“The Florida cover was a great result,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “And we had a great finish to the night. Louisville, South Carolina and SMU made it a good day for the book.”
Georgia was very popular as a 14.5-point favorite vs. Florida. But the Gators led 13-6 at halftime and kept it close most of the way, losing 34-20 — and covering by a half-point.
Clemson was a 10.5-point home favorite vs. Louisville and lost outright 33-21. Texas A&M was a 3-point favorite at South Carolina and got slammed 44-20. And popular 7-point underdog Pitt lost at SMU 48-25.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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