College football playoff predictions: SMU, Ole Miss in; Georgia, Miami out

So far this season, Indiana, BYU and Army have each begun the season 9-0, with the Hoosier Daddies becoming the first to earn their 10th win this season. Not bad for a program that had gone 9-27 over the past three years.

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, the SEC is a free-for-all without a single undefeated team. Neither of the two teams at the top of the SEC standings — Tennessee and Texas A&M — have won the conference title in the CFP era. Perennial cellar dweller Vanderbilt upset then-No. 1 Alabama after the Crimson Tide upset then-No. 2 Georgia. And Georgia? It lost to Ole Miss on Saturday, the Bulldogs’ first defeat against a team other than Alabama since Nov. 7, 2020.

Georgia Tech beat a team that had begun the season 9-0, Miami (Fla.), for just the second time since the AP poll was created in 1936. 

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel became the FBS’s all-time leader in touchdowns and leads the No. 1 team in the country. Yet no one is sure the Ducks are going to win the national title in the first year of a 12-team playoff, which means that one thing remains true: these projections will change at least once more.

That said, let’s get to my updated CFP projections:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-0

2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 8-1

3. BYU
Conference: Big 12
Record: 9-0

4. SMU
Conference: ACC
Record: 8-1

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 8-1

6. Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-0

7. Tennessee 
Conference: SEC
Record: 8-1

8. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 8-1

9. Notre Dame
Conference: Independent
Record: 8-1

10. Alabama
Conference: SEC
Record: 7-2

11. Ole Miss
Conference: SEC
Record: 8-2

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 8-1

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Penn State vs. 9. Notre Dame)

2. Texas: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Tennessee vs. 10. Alabama)

3. BYU: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Indiana vs. 11. Ole Miss)

4. SMU: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State)

8. Penn State vs. 9. Notre Dame

This game would feature two of the better rushing attacks and defenses in the sport. Both Penn State coach James Franklin and Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman have enjoyed good seasons each of the past two years, but the winner here gets closer to a national title than either has ever been as the head ball coach at their respective programs.

7. Tennessee vs. 10. Alabama

Alabama would like nothing more than to avenge its loss to the Vols last month. Last Saturday, it showed it can go on the road in a hostile environment and earn a crowd-silencing win against a hated conference foe. If the Jalen Milroe who showed up to beat LSU — with 185 rushing yards, four touchdowns and zero turnovers — shows up to play Tennessee, the Tide should feel good about their chances.

6. Indiana vs. 11. Ole Miss

Ole Miss beat the toughest team on its schedule, Georgia, and the Hoosiers can do the same in two weeks’ time when they travel to Columbus, Ohio, to play Ohio State. For Ole Miss, the question of whether it is talented enough to win a national title was answered vs. the Bulldogs. For Indiana, winning on the road at what is the consensus No. 2 team in the country would do the same. In that case, this game might be a first-round matchup, but is one we could see a little bit farther down the bracket.

 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State

With three games left in the season, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 1,734, including 209 in his last outing. He needs 895 more yards to break Barry Sanders’ 36-year-old record. If the Broncos win the Mountain West Championship, this game against Ohio State could be the one for which he breaks the record — or at least comes close to it.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

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