College Football Week 13 preview: How Ohio State-Indiana impacts the CFP picture

The stage is set. Two of college football’s top teams are set to face off in Columbus on Saturday afternoon with massive College Football Playoff implications in play.

Get your popcorn ready.

Curt Cignetti’s No. 5-ranked Indiana Hoosiers will put their undefeated record on the line against Will Howard, Jeremiah Smith and the No. 2-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes at Noon ET Saturday on FOX (Watch on FOX and the FOX Sports App).

In addition to this matchup having massive CFP implications, it also has massive implications for the Big Ten Championship Game. Both Ohio State and Indiana control their own destiny to make the conference title game, along with Oregon. If Indiana beats Ohio State, the Big Ten Championship will be Indiana vs Oregon.

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman and RJ Young are here to answer the biggest questions heading into this highly-anticipated Big Ten showdown.

What is the formula for the No. 5-ranked Hoosiers to pull off an upset against No. 2 Ohio State?

Laken Litman: Last week, Ohio State trounced Northwestern at Wrigley Field, 31-7. In that game, the Wildcats were 6-of-16 on third down and 1-of-4 in the red zone. Indiana happens to be one of the best teams in the country at both of those things: On third down, the Buckeyes are converting 49.1% of the time, and in the red zone, they’re converting 94.6% of the time. The Hoosiers have scored more touchdowns in the red zone (46) than any other team this season, too. 

IU is 10-0 for the first time in school history and there’s a lot to like about Curt Cignetti’s team right now. Saturday marks a big moment – its first matchup against a ranked opponent this season – the offense can’t go into hiding like it did in its last game against Michigan on Nov. 9. After taking a 17-3 lead at halftime, the Hoosiers mustered only three points in the second half. Kurtis Rourke, who is statistically one of the best QBs in the country, threw his fourth pick of the season to start the third quarter. IU won 20-15, but Ohio State’s defense is more talented than Michigan’s – the Buckeyes have the No. 2 unit in the country and feature the top scoring defense in the country (10.3). Indiana is going to have to find a way to put points on the board.

RJ Young: Start with scoring on Ohio State like you have against everyone you’ve faced, outside of Michigan. Then, play defense like you’ve played against everyone you’ve faced this season. Indiana has beaten nine of its 10 opponents by 14 points or more and has yet to allow more than 28 points in a single game.

The Hoosiers’ stars must shine in this game for Indiana to come out victorious. That means Kurtis Rourke will have to continue being efficient in the passing attack with 21 TDs and just four INTs. It means Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton need to meet their gaudy 6 yards per carry average for nearly 1,200 yards this season. It means the defense, led by Mikail Kamara (15 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks), Amare Ferrell (4 INTs) and Aiden Fisher (98 tackles) will need to make themselves household names against a potent Ohio State offense.

Conversely, what is the key for Ohio State to limit Indiana’s explosive offense and for Ryan Day to secure another top-five victory?

RJ: Get great play out of cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun. Burke, in particular, has not lived up to his first-round grade in the second half of the season. He’s been consistently targeted by opponents since Ohio State’s loss to Oregon and feels like the only real weakness in what is one of the best scoring defenses in the sport. Meanwhile, Igbinosun is OSU’s most penalized player on defense.

The Buckeye defense has been particularly stingy, not just about TDs, but scoring in the second half of the season. Since giving up 32 to the Ducks, the Buckeye defense has allowed just 31 total points in its last four games, including holding No. 4 Penn State without a single touchdown.

Laken: Ohio State’s defense has rebounded since its lone loss of the season to Oregon on Oct. 12. That night, the Buckeyes’ gave up 32 points and 496 yards. Since then, no opponent has put up more than 17 points or 273 yards. 

This is the kind of game players like Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Ty Hamilton, Burke, Jordan Hancock and Lathan Ransom came back for. Rourke has only been sacked 10 times and he’s thrown only four interceptions. So, Ohio State’s elite defense and its veteran stars need to make him feel uncomfortable early and often.

Which QB do you trust more: Kurtis Rourke or Will Howard?

Laken: This one is tough because, statistically, Rourke and Howard are so similar. They’re both efficient, completing more than 71% of their passes and throwing for more than 2,400 yards this season. They take care of the ball – Rourke’s touchdown to interception ratio is 21:4, while Howard’s is 24:5. They have solid protection – neither has been sacked very many times. 

But for the sake of argument, Howard has more big-game experience – lest we forget he led Kansas State to a Big 12 title in 2022.

RJ: Flip a coin. Both quarterbacked their previous programs – Ohio (Rourke) and Kansas State (Howard) – to conference championships. Both have completed about 72% of their passes this season and have a nearly identical TD:INT ratio (24:5 for Howard, 21:4 for Rourke). Each has proven capable of utilizing the tools in their arsenal as passers to distribute the ball to their threats on the perimeter and bell cows in the backfield.

Is the loser of this game still deserving of a spot in the College Football Playoff this year? 

RJ: Sure. Provided the loser wins out, it’s going to be difficult not to justify why the third- or fourth-best team in the Big Ten isn’t one of seven deserving of an at-large berth to the CFP. Where the seeding will get interesting is just how far up or down the loser of this game is in the rankings. Either way, an 11-win Big Ten team is exactly what the CFP was extended to provide an opportunity for. The fact that team might be Indiana is still the most unexpected outcome of the 2024 college football season.

Laken: Most likely, as long as they win their last regular-season game (both should, given Ohio State plays Michigan and Indiana plays Purdue). 

If Indiana loses to Ohio State and beats Purdue, the Hoosiers will finish 11-1, and it’s hard to see an 11-1 Big Ten team not making the playoff. If Ohio State loses to IU and beats Michigan, the Buckeyes will finish 10-2 and while that might knock them down the rankings and put them in a logjam with a bunch of two-loss SEC teams, it’s clear that the committee thinks highly of the Buckeyes. Their two losses would be to then-No. 3 Oregon and then-No. 5 Indiana. So, similarly to Indiana, it would be hard to see them not making the CFP.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

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