2024 Mexico Open odds, predictions: Tony Finau, Favorites, picks from the field

By Vik Chokshi
FOX Sports Gambling Lead

The PGA Tour heads to Puerto Vallarta this week for the Mexico Open. 

Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 that’s 7,456 yards long. Some of the game’s best, such as Scottie Scheffler, won’t be playing, but plenty of other big names are teeing off.

As for betting on the tournament, we’ve got you covered with everything you need, from the odds to best bets.

Let’s dive into the action.

FAVORITES

Tony Finau has been on fire here over the last few years and comes into this event looking to go back-to-back.

Finau set a course record last year en route to his win, shooting 24-under to defeat Jon Rahm by three strokes. Rahm won the tournament a year prior, but Finau was close behind, finishing just one stroke off from the lead.

Naturally, Finau is the favorite to win this tournament at +800. Nicolai Højgaard holds the second-best odds to win at +1400. After him comes a big jump to the next group of guys in the +2000 range.

Now that we teed off with the basics, let’s approach the top favorites and my portfolio for this tournament.

ODDS & FIELD*

Tony Finau: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Nicolai Højgaard: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Stephan Jaeger: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Keith Mitchell: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Thomas Detry: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Emiliano Grillo: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Taylor Pendrith: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Thorbjørn Olesen: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Patrick Rogers: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Erik van Rooyen: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Davis Thompson: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)

*Odds as of 2/21/24

LONG-SHOT OUTRIGHT BETS TO MAKE

If you follow me on Twitter or read this column, you know I love betting on golf long shots (+2000 or longer). There’s just something thrilling about holding a lottery ticket deep into Sunday. It also presents you with multiple hedging opportunities if you want to eliminate some of your risks.

I know Finau and some big dogs are here this week, but I can see a dark horse making some noise. Long shots have dominated in 2024, so hopefully, we get a piece this weekend.

Most of my bets this week are based on course history. Here are a couple of guys worth sprinkling pizza money on:

Taylor Pendrith +2500
Keith Mitchell +3500
Cameron Champ +6500
Jhonnatan Vegas +7000

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