Don’t be surprised when, in 10 to 15 years, we’re talking about multiple players from this era of first basemen getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. The group below has combined for 32 All-Star selections, 17 Silver Slugger awards, 12 Gold Glove honors, five MVP awards, five home run titles, three Rookie of the Year nods and three championship rings. It’s a heavy-hitting class, and most of these names aren’t retiring anytime soon.
Our nine-part position series continues with the top 10 first basemen entering the 2024 season.
MLB position rankings: Top-20 starting pitchers; Top-10 closers; Top-10 catchers
1. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 stats: .331/.410/.567, 29 HR, 163 wRC+, 7.9 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projections: .299/.384/.503, 25 HR, 140 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR
2. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2023: .283/.389/.604, 54 HR, 160 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .260/.360/.515, 37 HR, 131 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR
3. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
2023: .293/.401/.499, 21 HR, 142 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .281/.388/.527, 26 HR, 142 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR
Though Harper played only 36 games at first base last year, with all appearances coming in the second half of the season after he recovered from Tommy John surgery, he received high marks for his defense. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went so far as to say Harper could win a Gold Glove at his new position.
With Rhys Hoskins settling into Milwaukee, this will be Harper’s first full season as a first baseman and early reports from Phillies camp indicate the transition has been smooth. The slugger is, of course, still on a Hall of Fame trajectory after another big season in the books. While there’s eight more years left on his 13-year, $330 million contract, Harper has been so good in Philly that he’s angling for a new extension — and he’ll probably get it.
4. Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2023: .217/.318/.504, 46 HR, 121 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .245/.337/.491, 37 HR, 128 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2023: .264/.345/.444, 26 HR, 118 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .278/.357/.492, 31 HR, 133 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR
6. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
2023: .268/.363/.447, 25 HR, 122 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .267/.354/.452, 23 HR, 121 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR
The 36-year-old Goldschmidt is projected to virtually match his output from 2023. Now, that can be looked at two ways. Last year was the beginning of an apparent decline for the seven-time All-Star, whose production significantly dipped across the board from his magnificent 2022 MVP campaign. His .810 OPS, in fact, was the lowest since 2011.
At the same time, this version of Goldy is still better than most of his peers at first base, and he’s rebounded from a relatively down year in the past (2019). He’ll be plenty motivated, knowing how crucial these next few years are to solidifying his Hall of Fame case. Plus, 2024 is a walk year for him, so he’ll need to produce if he wants to play out the last leg of his outstanding career in St. Louis.
7. Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
2023: .307/.356/.525, 26 HR, 134 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .267/.327/.441, 19 HR, 106 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR
The Cody Bellinger Renaissance returns to Chicago. He found a new All-Star swing with the Cubs last year, dramatically improving at the plate after an unfortunate ending in Los Angeles. Now, it will be interesting to see whether last year was his new normal. The former MVP ditched power strokes for a more contact-oriented approach and thrived, in turn establishing an entirely different hit profile midway through his career.
That unique transformation also explains the three-year, $80 million deal he signed last month. With opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, the 28-year-old Bellinger has an opportunity to reset his market again. He expects to be occupying a different primary position, as well. The Cubs are hoping top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is the long-term solution at center field, likely forcing Bellinger to first base. He’s proven to be outstanding there, too, recording 5 defensive runs saved in 59 games and 421.1 innings just last year.
8. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
2023: .330/.410/.522, 22 HR, 164 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .287/.376/.437, 15 HR, 133 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
9. Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
2023: .258/.333/.497, 33 HR, 120 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .253/.335/.447, 22 HR, 111 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
10. Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
2023: .262/.360/.414, 17 HR, 114 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: .279/.346/.448, 22 HR, 117 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR
MLB position rankings schedule:
Monday: Starting pitchers
Tuesday: Closers
Wednesday: Catchers
Thursday: First basemen
Friday: Second basemen
Monday, 3/11: Third basemen
Tuesday, 3/12: Shortstops
Wednesday, 3/13: Outfielders
Thursday, 3/14: Designated hitters
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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