2023-24 NBA MVP race: Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pass Jokic down the stretch?

Heading into the final month of the season, the race to be the last man standing at the top of the FOX Sports NBA MVP rankings — earning a first-place vote for the league’s award — comes down to one simple question: Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder put on enough of a closing flourish for him to overtake center Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets?

As it stands, Jokic has only tightened his grip on the No. 1 rung since he grabbed it in the last ranking, leading Denver to a post-All-Star break 10-1 record that has vaulted them into a back-and-forth battle with the Thunder for first place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets, collectively, have honed their focus since the break, but no one has done so more than Jokic, who has dished out more assists (8.9 to 10.2) and grabbed more rebounds (12 to 13.6) while shooting better than 60% from the field and 90% from the free-throw line.

Not surprisingly, his offensive rating jumped from an already stellar 131 to 136 while he ratcheted his defensive rating down from 111 to 104, according to Basketball Reference.

Gilgeous-Alexander, who established himself in January as the biggest threat to keep Jokic from a third league MVP title, offensively, has been everything at the point-guard position for Oklahoma City that Jokic has been as the Nuggets’ center and a case could be made that he’s been a better all-around defender.

At this point, it’s hard to see anyone crashing the two-man party at the top of the rankings, but the battle for third-through-five — there are five slots on the official ballot — should go down to the wire. Dallas Mavericks point-forward Luka Dončić has moved up from fifth to third by elevating his game since the break even more than Jokic. Both his production and efficiency have risen and even his defense appears to have improved, at least marginally.

Remaining at No. 4 is the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have been up and down since replacing Adrian Griffin with Doc Rivers as head coach, but Antetokounmpo has been remarkably steady at his usual elite level. If Doncic doesn’t keep up his current pace, Antetokounmpo could easily move past him.

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard jumped from 7th last month to take the fifth spot, largely due to the attrition of New York Knicks’ Jalen Brunson and Cleveland Cavaliers’ Donovan Mitchell. (Mitchell fell out of the rankings entirely because, by the NBA’s minimum 65-games-played rule, he has missed too many games to qualify for the award.) Leonard is a unique candidate. There may not be a great player in the league whose level of play has a greater impact on his team *and* has as much variance in that level of play. In wins, he is a plus-22 in plus-minus; in losses, he is a minus-7. When Leonard does not shoot well and is not particularly engaged defensively, the Clippers are capable of losing to anyone; conversely, when he is on, which is more often than not, they look as formidable as any team in the league.

Which is another way of saying that the race for fifth in the rankings — and a place on the ballot — remains wide open. Even if the race for first isn’t.

NBA MVP Ladder

1. Nikola Jokic
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. Luka Doncic
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Anthony Edwards
7. Jalen Brunson
8. Jayson Tatum
9. Kevin Durant
10. Anthony Davis

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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