NCAA Tournament South Region: Top first-round matchups, upsets, predictions

The South Region of the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament can be termed … Guardland. 

That’s because it features a ridiculous collection of backcourt talent all rolled into one region. You’ve got Jamal Shead, LJ Cryer and a Houston team that, despite losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament championship game, still possesses as much toughness as anyone in college basketball and has the nation’s No. 2 defense. 

You’ve also got a Marquette team that, with Tyler Kolek back in the fold alongside Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell, is a real threat to make the Final Four because of their unique skill set and the versatile weapon, Oso Ighodaro. 

Then, you have one of the most explosive backcourts in the country with Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and an All-American veteran in Antonio Reeves charging a Kentucky team that needs to go on a run this year. The Wildcats are too talented to be an early exit yet again. It’s time for John Calipari to make a run. 

Finally, if that’s not enough, the trio of Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain lead a Duke team that’s looking for a second-weekend breakthrough after a first-weekend exit in Jon Scheyer’s opening year at the helm. 

So, there are blue bloods, All-Americans and much more, but guard play is the constant in the South. 

Here’s a complete breakdown of the South:

1. Of the top-four seeds, who has the most favorable draw? 

Here are the top four teams in this region: Houston, Marquette, Kentucky and Duke. I’m actually going to go in a different direction than the top seed and saying … Kentucky! 

We really don’t know what Tyler Kolek is going to be able to do for the Golden Eagles, as the All-American point guard has missed the last six games with an oblique injury. Yes, Marquette reached the Big East Tournament final while UK was an early exit in the SEC Tournament, but if you’re going to be stuck being a 3-seed, I’d rather play someone in the Sweet 16 with some injury concerns surrounding their point guard than not.

Houston would meet either Nebraska or Texas A&M in the second round, and the Aggies do have a great backcourt in Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor IV, and are hot after a quality SEC Tournament performance. There are days when Duke looks like one of the nation’s best, and that Sweet 16 game with Shead and Cryer meeting Roach, Proctor and McCain would be quite a matchup.

I like the Cougars quite a bit, but opportunity knocks for Kentucky. The Wildcats need to avoid the upset threat against Greg Kampe and Oakland, then get Texas Tech or NC State. Yes, the Wolf Pack are red-hot, but both of those teams are beatable for a team as talented as Kentucky – no doubt. It’s time for John Calipari to go on a run and I felt this was a manageable path. 

2. What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?

I’m going with Wisconsin taking on a 31-3 James Madison team that I feel is dangerous entering the tournament. The Dukes have a tremendous duo in Terrence Edwards Jr. and TJ Bickerstaff, who combine to average over 30 points per game in a KenPom top-60 offense. This team’s ability to get up and down can create issues, and they will be unfazed by the Badgers. JMU already owns a win over the Big Ten, having beaten Michigan State on opening night.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin entered the Big Ten Tournament having gone 3-8 in its last 11 games but put up three wins in as many nights, including one over Purdue, to advance to face Illinois in a dramatic 93-87 loss in the final. The Badgers seem to have regained their offensive rhythm with AJ Storr scoring 90 points in four Big Ten Tournament games. That being said, I still don’t know how much I trust Wisconsin, and I believe in James Madison’s ability to give the Badgers’ defense issues. If James Madison can avoid letting Wisconsin dictate the physicality of the game, watch out.

3. Who are three must-see players in this region? 

Reed Sheppard, guard, Kentucky: He’s been the most well-rounded freshman in college basketball and is so efficient, averaging 13 points, five assists and four rebounds per game while shooting 54% from the field. 

Jamal Shead, guard Houston: He’s the toughest guard in college basketball and is the tone-setter on both ends for Kelvin Sampson’s team. If the Cougars win this region, it starts with him (13.1 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.8 RPG). 

Tyler Kolek, guard, Marquette: Just how healthy will he be coming off the oblique injury that has sidelined him for six games? That’s the biggest question mark in this region. The Golden Eagles were impressive in reaching the Big East Tournament championship game without their star point guard, but they can’t make a regional final without Kolek. He will play Friday in the first round against Western Kentucky. 

4. What team should be on upset alert in the opening round?

Be careful, Duke. Vermont fans will travel down to Brooklyn in droves for Friday’s matchup with the Blue Devils, and the entirety of the Barclays Center, besides Duke faithful, will be rooting for UVM. John Becker’s team plays a tempo that sits at 349th in the country.  In other words, they slow it down and have five guys averaging between 8.8 and 12.2 points per game. Junior guard TJ Long leads the way and can get hot from downtown. Once upon a time, TJ Sorrentine and the Catamounts shocked Syracuse in the Big Dance.

5. Which team do you view as the potential Cinderella of this region? 

I go back to James Madison. They’ve lost three times the entire season. Why not the Dukes! 

6. Who will be in the regional final, and who will win it? 

I’ve got Houston’s tough, hard-nosed defense going up against the team with the most upside in this field of 68, the Kentucky Wildcats. When it’s all said and done, give me the will and toughness of Shead, Cryer and Emanuel Sharp to slow down Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. I’ll take Kelvin Sampson to get back to the Final Four.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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