NCAA Tournament Midwest Region: Top first-round matchups, upsets, predictions

Purdue earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region despite bowing out of the Big Ten Tournament with an overtime loss to Wisconsin in the semifinals.

The Boilermakers stormed through the regular season with a 28-3 overall record and a 17-3 conference mark to win the league with room to spare. Now, in what is the last hurrah for center Zach Edey, it’s about what head coach Matt Painter’s team can do in the NCAA Tournament after falling to double-digit seeds in three consecutive seasons.

Elsewhere in the region, Tennessee earned the No. 2 seed after winning the SEC regular-season title. The Volunteers will be looking to emerge from a bottom half of the bracket that includes No. 3 Creighton, one of three elite teams in the Big East.

No. 4 Kansas and No. 5 Gonzaga round out the highest-seeded teams.  

Here’s a complete breakdown of the Midwest:

Of the top-four seeds, which team has the most favorable draw?

Perhaps the selection committee took it easy on Purdue after the embarrassment Painter and his team have endured in losing to a 13-seed, a 15-seed and a 16-seed in the last three NCAA Tournaments. Assuming the Boilermakers can get past either Montana State or Grambling State in the first round, they should have a manageable opponent from the 8-9 game with neither Utah State nor TCU ranking among the top 30 teams in the country on KenPom. That should get Purdue to the Sweet 16. 

The Boilermakers are also quite fortunate in that Kansas is easily the weakest 4-seed in this year’s tournament, as injury questions swirl around guard Kevin McCullar Jr. (18.3 points per game) and center Hunter Dickinson (18 points per game). This is also something of a down year for fifth-seeded Gonzaga, which enters the Big Dance with a 25-7 overall record that is the program’s worst since 2016. Both teams are subject to potential upsets in their first-round matchups against Samford and McNeese State, respectively.

It feels like there should be a pretty clear path for Purdue to reach the Elite Eight.  

What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?

There will be plenty of eyes on Purdue against whichever 16-seed emerges from the First Four after what happened to the Boilermakers a year ago in that same spot, losing to Fairleigh Dickinson to become just the second No. 1 seed to ever fall in the opening round. But this year’s team is better than what Painter had a year ago and should be more motivated than ever to atone.

That said, the most interesting matchup is No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) against No. 12 McNeese State (30-3). It’s been 16 years since Gonzaga lost in the first round under head coach Mark Few, who has reached the Sweet 16 or better in each of his past eight NCAA Tournament appearances. But McNeese will be a popular upset pick thanks to head coach Will Wade, once disgraced amid an NCAA investigation at LSU and now in his first season with the Cowboys. Wade’s team is one of just four programs to win 30 games this season and ranks seventh in the country in 3-point field goal percentage. McNeese can light it up.

Who are the must-see players in this region?

Zach Edey, center, Purdue: It goes without saying that the nation’s leading scorer and the player who is about to win his second consecutive Naismith Men’s Player of the Year award is worth watching. The 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey is averaging 24.4 points and 11.7 rebounds per game.

Dalton Knecht, guard, Tennessee: A former zero-star recruit, Knecht now ranks 14th nationally in scoring and fourth among players from power conferences at 21.1 points per game. He has seven 30-point games and one 40-point game already this season.

Ryan Kalkbrenner, center, Creighton: The three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year anchors a team that ranks among the top 25 in the country for both offensive (12th) and defensive efficiency (24th). At 7-foot-1 and 270 pounds, he has the size to contend with Edey should the Bluejays and Boilermakers meet in the Elite Eight. 

Which team should be on upset alert in the opening round?

It has to be Kansas, right? With its two leading scorers in McCullar and Dickinson sidelined for the Big 12 Tournament, the Jayhawks flamed out with a 20-point loss to Cincinnati. They’ve lost four of their past five games entering March Madness and haven’t beaten an opponent ranked in the top 25 on KenPom since a 64-61 win over Baylor on Feb. 10. 

Samford is the kind of team that can really pose problems if Kansas is shorthanded. The Bulldogs play with the 14th-fastest tempo and the sixth-shortest possession length in the country. Translation: They love to get up and down the floor. The only teams with a better scoring average than Samford (86 points per game) are Alabama, Kentucky, Arizona and Wright State.

Which team do you view as the potential Cinderella of this region?

Given the injury problems for Kansas and the lack of star power for Gonzaga, there’s a chance that No. 12 McNeese State and No. 13 Samford both pull off upsets in the opening round. If that happens, one of those double-digit seeds will reach the Sweet 16.

The safer bet is McNeese because of Wade’s pedigree: one SEC regular season title (2019), one Atlantic 10 regular season title (2016) and an overall record of 105-51 in five years at LSU. Wade might have been caught cheating by the NCAA, but nobody has ever accused him of being a bad coach.

Who will be in the regional final? Who will win it?

The Midwest will come down to an Elite Eight matchup between No. 1 Purdue and No. 3 Creighton in what should be a fascinating game. Edey vs. Kalkbrenner pits two of the best centers in the country against each other for a fascinating one-on-one battle. And the point guard clash between Purdue’s Braden Smith (12.5 points, 7.3 assists per game) and Creighton’s Steven Ashworth (10.7 points, 4.2 assists per game) has the makings of a high-level showdown.

In the end, there’s more heartbreak in store for the Boilermakers. With Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander both averaging more than 17 points per game, Creighton has a much better supporting cast around its big man than what Purdue has surrounding Edey. The Bluejays are heading to the Final Four.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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