Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s March Madness Primer: Betting picks, trends

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

The biggest gambling event outside of the Super Bowl is finally here! Welcome to March Madness!

If you are looking for some help with filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket or are just going to throw a few bucks down with some bets, I have you covered with my region-by-region breakdown of the tourney.

While defending national champion Connecticut is the best team, the Huskies were done zero favors by the committee as the No. 1 overall seed, meaning there are plenty of other potential title contenders. 

Here’s how I see things playing out, with some wagers and betting nuggets mixed in.

EAST REGION

Winner: Connecticut 

The Huskies can be found around +110 to win the region because the Nos. 1, 4 and 5 teams in KenPom are in their region. Still, the Huskies are the best team in the country and can beat you in a variety of ways with different scorers. 

If one guy has an off night, there are plenty of other options. It doesn’t hurt that the Huskies will be playing in Brooklyn and Boston. 

Here’s a contrarian view of things regarding this region: What if Iowa State throws up one of those offensive clunkers and the defense can’t save it? Illinois is terrible defensively, and that could catch up with that squad. Auburn is lacking Quad 1 wins and is basically playing a road game here. 

If you look at things that way, it makes you feel better about UConn. And remember, last year, the Huskies won what was deemed the most difficult region in Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga.

Top-3 seed most likely out in first weekend: Illinois 

This says more about my respect for BYU than it does about my lack of respect for Illinois. A BYU-Illinois second-round game could be one of the most entertaining games of the tourney. It would be a very dangerous one for the Illini — a team that hasn’t made it out of the first weekend since 2005.

12-seed or lower to win first-round game: South Dakota State 

Do I think the Jackrabbits will pull the upset? No. But I do think there’s a chance Iowa State comes into this tourney off a Big 12 title and is naturally a tad flat. It’s not like this program hasn’t been in this spot in the past (see 2001 vs. Hampton or 2015 vs. UAB). The next time Iowa State scores 60 points in a tournament game under T.J. Otzelberger will be the first, so that alone could keep an underdog in the matchup. South Dakota State is an experienced team and is ranked in the top 20 nationally in eFG%. So, if you’re looking for a team that can continue the trend of a 15th seed toppling a No. 2 seed, this is a good place to start.

No. 4 seed or lower to reach Final Four: Auburn 

The Tigers were completely slighted by the selection committee by not only being given a No. 4 seed but by being sent about as far across the country as possible in Spokane. There are two teams ranked in the top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency — Auburn and UConn — and those two squads could meet in the Sweet 16 in Boston. The Tigers are on the very short list of teams that have the athleticism, makeup and ability to challenge the Huskies, and it would not be an easy ask for UConn should we get an Auburn-UConn Sweet 16 game.

TIDBITS

• Teams to receive a No. 2 seed after starting the season unranked in the AP Poll are 0-36 in reaching the Final Four.
• There has not been a repeat champion since Florida in 2007. Since then, no defending champ has advanced past the Sweet 16.
• The defending champion has lost in the first or second round in each of the past six tournaments, including No. 1 seeds Kansas and Baylor each of the last two years.
• Auburn is 11-0 in first-round games.
• Illinois hasn’t defeated a team seeded higher than eighth since 2005.
• The last time an Elite Eight matchup featured a No. 1 vs. No. 2 seed was in 2019 when No. 2 seed Michigan State beat Duke.
• Just four No. 1 seeds reached the Elite Eight in the last three tournaments.

WAGERS

Northwestern +2.5 vs. FAU: The Owls have been underwhelming all season, so do not expect a return trip to the Final Four. And their tournament lives might be even more short-lived than that if the Wildcats hit their threes and Boo Buie is healthy.

South Dakota State +16.5 vs. Iowa State: Iowa State’s stock can’t get any higher and that’s always a bit of a dangerous thing when you’re expected to go out and blow out your first-round opponent.

UConn +110 to win region: The tough draw means we get a better price.

Drake +575 to reach Sweet 16: Drake has taken a good bit of respected money in its first-round game vs. Washington State. Win that, and it could be a second-round dream matchup with in-state rival Iowa State for a trip to the Sweet 16 at stake. If Tucker DeVries has a better game than he did last year in a first-round loss to Miami, I give the Bulldogs a shot.

WEST REGION

Winner: Baylor

This region could provide a wild result, as top-seed North Carolina profiles closer to a 3-seed than a No. 1. 

Then you have Arizona, which is not trustworthy at all, and No. 4-seed Alabama plays absolutely zero defense. So if you want to get daring, I can’t blame anyone who goes a little off the grid with their pick to reach the Final Four from this region. Like Alabama and Kentucky, Baylor has some defensive issues. However, the Bears have a bunch of perimeter options. They might not be too deep, but they have closed out in games vs. Houston, Auburn, Iowa State, BYU and they have a coach who has won a national title. Baylor might also be a bit forgotten since the two blue bloods in this region have the top two seeds. But the Bears’ draw should have them in the Sweet 16 without too much of a sweat.

Top-3 seed most likely out in first weekend: North Carolina 

The Tar Heels did have a home win over Tennessee back in November, but the ACC was not a great league this year. UNC has had trouble finishing games and doesn’t generate a ton of pressure defensively, resulting in steals and easy baskets. 

I was very surprised when the Tar Heels popped up as No. 1 after their loss Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game to NC State. This just probably means the committee had them locked in at the start of the day. I’d like either Mississippi State or Michigan State’s chances in the second round to make UNC’s tourney stay a short one.

12-seed or lower to win first-round game: Charleston 

I can’t not give an answer, so Charleston is where I’ll go. 

The Cougars’ first-round game with Alabama should be entertaining if you’re a fan of offense, as Charleston is kind of “Alabama Lite.” If Charleston’s perimeter players are hitting threes and opening it up some inside for Ante Brzovic, Charleston has a puncher’s chance — especially if Alabama is having an off day shooting.

No. 4 seed or lower to reach Final Four: New Mexico 

The Lobos caught fire in the MWC tourney to reach the NCAA Tournament. Despite being a No. 11-seed, they are favored over No. 6-seeded Clemson. Win there, and a likely date with Baylor awaits. While I like the Bears to emerge from this region, a second-round game with the Lobos would be a challenge, something I couldn’t imagine saying after the Lobos suffered an embarrassing home loss to Air Force a couple of weeks back. Yes, I’m aware that most of the Mountain West’s NCAA tourney success has been courtesy of San Diego State and MWC teams seeded eighth or lower are just 6-39 straight up and 10-33-2 against the spread (ATS), while MWC teams seeded 10th or worse are 1-26. But this could be a region where wild things happen and if they do, New Mexico at a long number is as good a stab as any.

TIDBITS

• Since 2015, 12-seeds are 9-23 vs. No. 5 seeds. Last year, they went 0-4 — the third time in the last eight years that 12s were winless against 5-seeds.
• Dating back to 2012, there have been seven 11-seeds favored over No. 6 seeds. Six of the seven won and covered the spread, and each of the wins came by at least 12 points. The lone loss came from Rick Barnes’ Texas team vs. Butler in 2015.
• A double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 15 straight tournaments.
• At least two teams seeded No. 6 or worse have reached the Elite Eight in each of the past three — and in six of the last seven — tournaments.
• Clemson has lost six of its last seven first-round games.
• Alabama has been a top-four seed five times. The Tide have not advanced past the Sweet 16 in any of those instances.
• Avoid picking more than two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. I know you think it’s hard for these No. 1 seeds to lose, but it happens annually. Since seeding began in 1979, only in 2008 have all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. Last year, none did.
• Since all four No. 1-seed teams made the Final Four in 2008, a total of 18 1-seeds have reached the Final Four in the last 14 years.
• Since 2010, only 16 No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four. In that span, 12 No. 1 seeds have lost prior to the Sweet 16.
• Arizona has been a top-two seed 15 times. It reached the Final Four three times and has been eliminated prior to the Sweet 16 four times in those 15 instances.
• January, February, Izzo — Michigan State is 13-1 in first-round games as a No. 9-seed or higher since 2007, with the lone loss coming to Middle Tennessee in a 2016, No. 2 vs. No. 15 game.
• This is the third straight year Saint Mary’s is in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 game. The Gaels have won the previous two by 12 and 29 as favorites of less than five points.

WAGERS

Baylor -13.5 vs. Colgate; Baylor to win region +675: Colgate has lost by 27 to Arizona and 17 to Illinois. Those are the two teams it has faced that are comparable to Baylor’s level. The Bears might have to overcome the tempo of Colgate, but once they do, they should be able to name their score.

Saint Mary’s -5.5 vs. Grand Canyon: Grand Canyon might have been a matchup problem for a lot of teams, but I don’t think the Gaels are one of those teams. SMC has good guard play and experience and should be able to get good shots against GCU’s defense, whereas I’m not certain the opposite is true.

New Mexico to win region +2500: Small flier in case things get weird out West.

SOUTH REGION

Winner: Kentucky 

I actually tried to avoid taking Kentucky because of its defensive liabilities and the number of people piling on the UK bandwagon, but the draw was about as kind as could be to the Cats, who have a very vulnerable 2-seed in Marquette and a No. 1 seed in Houston that has trouble scoring at times. 

UK has underperformed lately in the tournament, so maybe John Calipari will just send the freshmen and Antonio Reeves out there and say, “Try and stop us.” And I’m not sure even Houston would be able to. There isn’t a team in the dance with as wide a range of outcomes as Kentucky. UK could lose in the first round or reach the title game.

Top-3 seed most likely out in first weekend: Marquette

The health of Tyler Kolek is the big reason why I tabbed Marquette here. Either Florida or Colorado would be a big challenge for Marquette, even if Kolek is at or near 100 percent. Remember that the Golden Eagles lost in the second round as a 2-seed last year, dropping Shaka Smart to 1-7 in his last eight tournament games, with four of the seven losses coming to double-digit seeds. So there’s a bit of a track record here.

12-seed or lower to win first-round game: James Madison 

I haven’t been able to figure out Wisconsin all year, so why stop trying now? JMU had one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country, but the Dukes won 31 games behind an experienced bunch. Doesn’t hurt that the last three Sun Belt teams seeded 12th have won their first-round games, and the last two times the Badgers have been a 5-seed have seen UW lose by double digits. Sure, the players change, but the situation and types of teams are the same. There might be some chances for JMU to get some good looks against a Wisconsin defense that has been suspect this season.

No. 4 seed or lower to reach Final Four: Texas Tech 

Tech has some injury concerns heading into the tournament, but I still like the Red Raiders to at least beat NC State. Who knows if Tech’s style will fluster a young Kentucky team in the Sweet 16. Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint are capable of controlling a game, and that gives Tech a shot against most teams. We’re likely headed toward a Houston-Kentucky Elite Eight matchup, but if you’re looking to be a little different with your bracket, Tech coming out of the bottom part is the worst stab.

TIDBITS

• ACC tournament champs are just 1-9 ATS in the NCAA tournament since 2017.
• The Big 12 is 21-5 in the first round over the past four tournaments.
• This is the sixth time Duke is not a top-3 seed. In the previous five instances, the Blue Devils lost in the first weekend three times and lost in the Sweet 16 twice.
• Wisconsin hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend since 2017.
• Kentucky last reached the Sweet 16 in 2019.

WAGERS

Longwood team total Under 51.5: I’d expect an angry Houston team and if we saw a 39-17 score at some point, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Texas Tech -5 vs. NC State: NC State survived against Louisville and needed a Virginia meltdown from the foul line in its surprise run to the ACC title, which left most people saying, “Where did that come from?” I don’t think this is a great matchup for the Pack, given how good Tech’s guards are and how the Red Raiders can salt a game away from the FT line.

Colorado to reach Sweet 16 +625: The Buffs will have to win three games to get there, but all three of those games are very winnable. They could face Boise State, a shorthanded Florida and a potentially shorthanded Marquette. CU has NBA talent on the squad and there’s a massive discrepancy in how KenPom views the Buffs (26th) and where the committee seeded them (10-seed). When in doubt, I’ll take my chances backing the KP metrics at a price. 

MIDWEST REGION

Winner: Purdue 

I’ve gone back and forth between Purdue and Creighton, but I’ll settle on the Boilermakers, who were done a solid with this draw, now made even easier as it could draw a depleted Kansas in the Sweet 16. 

A lot has been made of the parallel to 2019 Virginia. And sure, there’s some truth to that, but Purdue already has wins over Gonzaga and Tennessee this year, so it should be confident looking at the draw. The addition of Lance Jones is big for them on the perimeter. So we’ll see how the Boilermaker games are officiated. As opposing Big Ten fans will tell you, Purdue — specifically Zach Edey — gets a very favorable whistle. If Purdue isn’t playing in the Elite Eight, there’s gonna be some explaining to do.

Top-3 seed most likely out in first weekend: Tennessee 

Tennessee was in postseason form last week in a blowout loss to Mississippi State. Maybe that was a good thing because the expectations might now be tempered, but there are plenty of numbers to support the lack of belief the Vols can make a deep run. It’s almost like the committee did all it could for both Purdue and Tennessee to reach the Final Four by placing them in the same region, but that didn’t work last year when it tried that trick. In addition to the bad history, a second-round game vs Barnes’ former team in Texas or a deliberate and well-coached Colorado State team would probably not be an enjoyable 40 minutes.

12-seed or lower to win first-round game: McNeese State  

Yes, it’s trendy, but the other option, Samford over Kansas, is also going to be a popular pick, as Kevin McCullar is out for the NCAA Tournament. McNeese isn’t deep, but neither is Gonzaga. And McNeese hasn’t faced a great schedule, but the Cowboys hit nearly 40% of their 3-point shots and play with absolutely zero fear. Gonzaga is seeded a little higher than I thought it would be, so this feels more like a 10 vs. 12 opposed to a 5 vs. 12.

No. 4 seed or lower to reach Final Four: Oregon

The Ducks have suffered a ton of injuries this year. However, with a full squad, this is a dangerous team, as evidenced by the comeback win against Arizona in the Pac-12 tourney. The Ducks rarely turn the ball over and the presence of N’Faly Dante inside will be a problem for South Carolina and anyone the Ducks may face after that.

TIDBITS

• Jamie Dixon’s teams haven’t made it past the first weekend since 2009 and have made it out of the first weekend in just three of 14 NCAA Trips.
• No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Both the 2-seed Tennessee and 3-seed Creighton lost their first conference tourney game.
• The Big Ten hasn’t won a national title since 2000 and only four Big Ten teams have reached the Sweet 16 in the past three years.
• Since 2016, none of the 17 SEC teams to be a top-four seed have reached the Final Four. The only two SEC teams to advance to the Final Four in that span were fifth-seeded Auburn in 2019 and seventh-seeded South Carolina in 2017.
• The last SEC team to reach the title game was eighth-seeded Kentucky in 2014.
• Each of the last four times Kansas was not a No. 1 seed, the Jayhawks lost in the second round.
• Purdue has been eliminated by teams seeded 16th, 15th and 13th in the past three tournaments.
• Dana Altman is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in first-round games while at Oregon.
• Rick Barnes teams are 3-14-1 ATS in his last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
• Since Texas made the Elite Eight in 2008, Barnes’ teams have made it past the first weekend twice in 11 trips. Last year’s second-round win against fifth-seeded Duke was Barnes’ first win against a single-digit seed since 2008.

WAGERS

Oregon to reach Sweet 16 (+450): As mentioned above, a healthy Ducks team is a threat to make the second weekend, especially with games against an overachieving South Carolina and a potential second-round game with Dana Altman’s former team, Creighton.

Creighton to reach Final Four (+475): Speaking of Creighton, the Jays probably should have been in the Final Four last year and most of this team is back. Akron could be a bit trickier than most think and a game with Oregon or South Carolina wouldn’t be easy, but this is more of a play against Tennessee on the bottom half of this bracket.

Gonzaga/McNeese winner to reach Sweet 16: With McCullar out, it’s hard to envision Kansas winning two games here. So pick your Gonzaga-McNeese winner and play ’em to win two games.

BRACKET

A full primer is not complete without my bracket. Good luck, and enjoy one of the most beautiful times of the year.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica. 

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