2024 NFL Draft odds: Michael Penix Jr. on the rise, Raiders faves to draft QB

Michael Penix Jr.’s draft stock appears to be on the rise in the weeks ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Washington quarterback is “pretty likely” to be a first-round pick and “likely” to be selected with one of the first 16 picks in the draft, NFL Media reported Thursday. 

Penix Jr. might have helped his draft status at Washington’s Pro Day last week, reportedly running a sub 4.6 40-yard dash and impressing scouts in other athletic testing drills. 

The momentum for the signal caller to be a first-round pick has seemed to carry into this week, as a few quarterback-needy teams are showing interest in him. 

This has also caused his draft odds to move.

So, which team is favored to draft him? Let’s look at the latest odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook).

TEAM TO DRAFT MICHAEL PENIX JR. ODDS

Las Vegas Raiders: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Minnesota Vikings: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Seattle Seahawks: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Denver Broncos: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
New England Patriots: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
New York Giants: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
New Orleans Saints: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Miami Dolphins: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Los Angeles Rams: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Tennessee Titans: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

ODDS MICHAEL PENIX JR. IS A FIRST-ROUND PICK

Yes: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)

* odds as of 4/4/24

As expected, several quarterback-needy teams are among the favorites to draft Penix Jr. Still, most of the favorites aren’t teams picking in the top five, as Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are expected to be selected in that range.

So, that could leave the Raiders, Vikings, Seahawks and Broncos in a spot to draft him if they’re unable to trade up to nab a top pick. 

Las Vegas, the current favorite, started Aidan O’Connell for the second half of last season but signed Gardner Minshew in free agency. Minnesota needs a quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins, with many speculating that it’ll trade up into the top five. Seattle still has Geno Smith and traded for Sam Howell, but neither might be a long-term option. Denver is also searching for a quarterback after releasing Russell Wilson, though it’s a heavy favorite to draft another top quarterback prospect instead. 

Per multiple reports, Penix Jr. visited the Denver Broncos on Tuesday and visited the Las Vegas Raiders on Wednesday.

Additionally, the Minnesota Vikings had a private workout with him in Seattle recently, according to Bleacher Report. The New York Giants have also spent time with the 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up, NFL Media reported.

Of those four teams, the Giants have the highest draft pick. New York holds the No. 6 overall pick, while Minnesota, Denver and Las Vegas have the No. 11, 12 and 13 picks, respectively. Because of that, the Raiders might have to trade up a few spots in order to land Penix Jr. if they like him enough, per NFL Media.

Despite the number of quarterback-needy teams and rumors heating up around him, Penix still isn’t viewed as a likely first-round pick by oddsmakers, as the bet still currently pays out plus money. There was some speculation on whether his age (he turns 24 in May) or injury history could hurt his daft status earlier in the draft process, possibly causing him to fall out of the first round.

FOX Sports NFL Draft expert Rob Rang and lead college football analyst Joel Klatt believe that would be a mistake, though. Rang had the Vikings selecting Penix Jr. with his most recent mock draft.

“With all due respect to their divisional rival Bears and presumptive No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, Penix is the most accurate pocket passer in this class and an ideal fit in Kevin O’Connell’s aggressive downfield attack,” Rang wrote.

“Despite what you may have heard or read, there is no guarantee Penix Jr. will be available here; however, Minnesota packaging this selection and the one recently acquired from Houston (No. 23 overall) to move into the top 10 for a QB would not be surprising.”

Klatt has had the Dolphins selecting Penix Jr. in both of his mock drafts, believing that he’d be a viable replacement for Tua Tagovailoa. He also has the Washington QB as one of his 10 “plant the flag” players, stating his confidence that he’ll be successful in the NFL.

“Penix controlled the game from the pocket, and he might be better at that than any quarterback in this draft,” Klatt wrote. “He passed the football down the field with ease. His ability to attack the deep zones, seams and areas of the field with accuracy and leverage is uncanny. His timing is terrific. He routinely increases the odds for his receivers to make receptions down the field.”

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