NFL Rookie of the Year action report: ‘It’s a volatile market with the rookies’

NFL Rookie of the Year odds have percolated since well before last month’s NFL Draft. 

With Caleb Williams essentially guaranteed to be the No. 1 overall pick, sportsbooks were eager to put up numbers, even before the Chicago Bears tabbed Williams as their new quarterback.

But betting interest in the market jumped significantly once the USC QB — and others behind him — actually got drafted.

“We opened this market a little before the draft, and we saw a trickle of money,” BetMGM trader Tristan Davis said. “But as soon as the first player was picked, the handle picked up too.”

With the initial betting outburst complete, Davis served up his insights on early action for NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.

Wagering on Williams

Prior to the draft, Wiliams opened as the +300 favorite in BetMGM’s odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Once the Bears made it official, there was almost immediate betting enthusiasm for Williams.

“It did not take us long to shorten him from +300 to +200. We tightened him maybe a full day after the draft,” Davis said.

In the past week, Williams shortened once again, to +180. That means a $100 bet on Williams would win $180, for a $280 total payout if he earns the award.

RELATED: Caleb Williams, Bears shaking up the odds: ‘Their ceiling is high if he excels’

Williams is taking 22% of bets and a hefty 42% of money in BetMGM’s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds market. But with his short odds and other players getting attention, liability isn’t stacking up at this point.

“Although he has been the majority of handle, there has been enough money spread out in the market to put us in a good position early,” Davis said.

Next in Line

Quarterback Jayden Daniels, drafted No. 2 overall by the Washington Commanders, is also No. 2 in offensive rookie odds at +600. Daniels opened as the +900 third choice, behind Williams and wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. (+600 opener), who was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals.

But the former LSU QB has since leapfrogged Harrison, who’s now at +650. QB J.J. McCarthy, taken 10th overall by the Minnesota Vikings, follows at +900 and has seen his odds bounce around quite a bit early on.

“McCarthy has been a big mover. We put up +1400 and had him at +600 at one stage. Since then, we have put him back out to +900,” Davis said. “It’s a volatile market with the rookies. Like a horse race with a heap of first starters, prices will move around for a while before we see the market settle.”

McCarthy is fifth in ticket count and tied for third in money with wideout Xavier Worthy, another significant mover in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Worthy, a speedster drafted 28th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs, opened at +3500 and quickly cut those odds by more than half. He’s now at +1600.

Worthy is No. 3 in ticket count. Harrison is No. 2 in BetMGM’s ticket count and No. 5 in money. Daniels is No. 4 in tickets and No. 2 in money.

Shot in the Dark

Davis pointed to one potential dark horse to win offensive rookie honors: running back Jonathon Brooks, taken 46th overall by the Carolina Panthers.

Brooks had a big 2023 season for Texas, with 187 rushes for 1,139 yards, and a stout average of 6.1 yards per carry. He suffered a torn ACL late in the season, but he’s expected to be ready for training camp.

“I think Brooks is worth a look,” Davis said “We took some sharp money on him at +5000 [and moved] it to +4000. I would have something on that.”

It would certainly be a nice payout. A $100 bet at +4000 would profit $4,000, for a $4,100 total payout.

Getting Defensive

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds aren’t nearly as popular, but there’s some interest in the wake of the NFL Draft.

BetMGM opened edge rusher Laiatu Latu the favorite at +700. Latu was the first defensive player selected in the draft, going No. 15 overall to the Indianapolis Colts.

However, even while improving to +600, Latu fell to the second choice on the oddsboard. The new favorite is Dallas Turner, another edge rusher, who went 17th overall to the Vikings.

Turner opened as the +750 second choice and shortened to +400.

“Dallas Turner was the red-hot favorite to be the first defensive player to be drafted. That did not happen. So I think bettors are doubling down here, maybe getting a better price than if he did go with that first defensive pick,” Davis said.

Turner is lapping the field at BetMGM in wagering on odds to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Turner and Latu are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in both ticket count and money. But Turner has attracted 51% of bets/69% of dollars — 3.5 times more bets and six times more money than Latu. 

Davis noted one dark horse in this market, as well: linebacker Payton Wilson, who went in the third round (98th overall) to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“At bigger odds, Wilson from +3000 to +2000 has been one to sneak under the radar,” Davis said.

That makes Wilson the eighth choice at BetMGM.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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