The Braves and Mets have yet to break out on offense. The Reds and Giants have underachieved. The Brewers and Cardinals are in the same spots they were in at the end of last season, prompting trade speculation involving Nolan Arenado.
It all makes for three compelling matchups this weekend on FOX Saturday Baseball (Braves-Mets, 4 p.m. ET on FS1; Cardinals-Brewers, 7 p.m. ET on FOX; Reds-Giants, 7 p.m. ET on FOX).
FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner tackle these topics and more in this week’s roundtable.
1. The Braves’ offensive numbers are down across the board from last year’s historic output. Some of that could be expected, but what part is concerning for their title chances?
Kavner: Obviously, missing Spencer Strider is the greatest concern for October, but the Braves’ recent offensive downslide is certainly baffling. Ronald Acuña Jr.’s shift down from extraordinary to simply above average does warrant some examination. After slugging .596 in last year’s MVP season, he’s down to .351, and it’s not that he’s getting unlucky. He’s not hitting the ball as hard, he’s whiffing a lot more, he’s not lifting the ball and, perhaps most surprisingly, he’s not connecting against fastballs.
Naturally, the first inclination is to worry about health. Acuña tweaked his surgically repaired knee in the spring and at one point in Los Angeles last weekend did hobble a bit after getting picked off second base. He’s still hitting around league average, but you have to wonder if there’s anything more going on there. There appears to be more unluckiness involved with the slow starts for Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II, though Olson and Harris are also uncharacteristically struggling against fastballs. I imagine most of the above parties will find their way at the plate, but it is surprising to see this offense average less than three runs per game over their past 10 games. For now, it’s just something to monitor more than panic about.
Thosar: The offense’s complete and utter power outage this season is not just surprising for Atlanta, but it’s concerning. The Braves’ 36 home runs through the first six weeks of the year are ranked 18th in MLB. Last year, Atlanta had already crushed 57 homers through its first 34 games of the season. A lot of that slugging was a product of Matt Olson’s power bat, which produced the most home runs (54) in MLB last year. But, so far, Olson has gone yard just three times in 147 plate appearances.
What’s extra troubling is Ronald Acuna’s Jr.’s lack of dingers, too. Last year at this point in the season, Acuña and Olson had combined for 15 home runs. Now? Five. The Braves still have the second-best batting average (.300) with runners in scoring position in MLB, so they’re proving they don’t need to hit one over the fence to cash in with ducks on the pond. But their slugging numbers being down across the board is a troubling sign.
2. None of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte or Francisco Lindor are playing to their level. Whom do you expect to rebound and do you think it will be enough to keep this team in wild-card contention?
Thosar: I’m expecting Pete Alonso to rebound any minute, any second, because he’s in a contract year. Alonso, vis a vis Aaron Judge, is keen on betting on himself in his walk year and just letting his bat do the talking. Contrarily, in recent matchups, his icy bat could be costing him millions of dollars. Alonso was mired in a 1-for-29 slump and nine-game homerless drought before he collected a pair of hits and took the Cardinals deep this week.
The Polar Bear just has too much resting on this season to go quietly into the night. Mets owner Steve Cohen even challenged Alonso to hit a bunch of home runs this year and make the decision to keep him in New York as difficult as possible. Alonso isn’t adjusting to the added pressures of a contract year as well as he had expected, but what matters most to the first baseman is winning. If he can start slugging in clutch moments and being a consistent power bat in the Mets lineup, then he can help both himself and his team on the way to, potentially, playoff contention.
Kavner: You’re already starting to see it from Nimmo, who has an OPS over 1.000 the past couple of weeks. But the rest of the group has been pretty brutal. Alonso, at least, has nine home runs this year, but his underlying numbers are concerning. After posting a 40% hard-hit rate last year, it’s down to 30% this season, by far the lowest mark of his career, leading to a career-worst line drive percentage. His .212 batting average is almost identical to last year, but his continued decline in on-base percentage and slugging percentage are troubling, particularly in a contract year.
Lindor and Marte’s expected statistics are much better than what they’ve actually produced (though they’re both whiffing more than they have before). Lindor is hitting the ball too solidly to run a career-low .212 BABIP for much longer. I’d expect better days ahead for all of the aforementioned players, which should be enough to compete for a final wild-card spot. Still, this looks more like a team that will hover around .500 than one set to challenge for a division title.
3. The Cardinals passed on trading Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at last year’s deadline, and it’s seemingly cost them. Is now too early to explore dealing Arenado?
Kavner: Things don’t look great in St. Louis. Again. And they could get uglier. But, yes, it’s still too early to deal Arenado.
The most perplexing part is that it isn’t the pitching causing the problems. Their 3.99 team ERA isn’t exceptional, but that mark should be plenty good enough to allow this team to compete. Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge have been great at the back end of the bullpen. The rotation additions — Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson — have all done more than enough to give the Cardinals a chance.
The offense just can’t hit.
While Tyler O’Neill mashes in Boston, his former team in St. Louis has the fourth-lowest OPS in the sport — lower than the Reds, who have the worst batting average in baseball. And the only guy consistently mashing for the Cardinals, Willson Contreras, just broke his arm.
Still, as disappointing as this start has been for a team many predicted to bounce back this year, It’s probably too early to blow it up, which is essentially what the Cardinals would be doing by dealing Arenado. They’re only six games out right now, and it’s hard to imagine Paul Goldschmidt — who has never had an OPS under .800 — performing this poorly all year (despite how bad the peripherals look right now). If something doesn’t change by the deadline, I think you have to listen to offers to give the farm system another jolt, but I’d wait until closer to that time. Right now, though, it’s looking more and more like another lost season in St. Louis.
Thosar: Sure, Arenado, in his age-33 season, is no longer the player he once was. His .740 OPS to begin the season is extremely un-Arenado-like, his .390 slugging percentage is the worst such mark in his career, and he’s crushed just two home runs through his first 154 plate appearances. But he’s still Nolan Arenado, an eight-time All-Star and five-time Sliver Slugger, and he’s still an above-average hitter (114 OPS+) even in his 12th year in the big leagues.
The biggest piece of hardware still missing from Arenado’s mantel is a world championship, though, so I could see the third baseman wanting to get out of St. Louis if, say, Paul Goldschmidt is also traded and the Cardinals start sinking even faster. The Marlins showed us it’s not too early for trade talks, and contending clubs should be leaping at the idea of acquiring Arenado. So, no, it’s not too early to explore dealing Arenado off of a last-place Cardinals team.
4. Are you buying the Brewers as playoff contenders?
Kavner: I didn’t in early April. I do now.
I think enough time has passed that, even if the offense doesn’t perform quite to this level the rest of the way — and you’re starting to see some regression over the past couple of weeks — it’s also safe to say it’s not a fluke. And let’s also remember they’ve surged to the top of the NL Central playing most of the year without Christian Yelich, who is returning, and lockdown closer Devin Williams, who will return in the summer.
As much as they’ve outplayed expectations, I believe that William Contreras is one of the best catchers in the sport, I believe in the Willy Adames bounce back, and among Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio (who’s in the midst of some rookie struggles), I think there’s enough depth here to continue to contend. The bigger question I have is whether the rotation can hold up. If Freddy Peralta doesn’t pitch well — and he has run into some troubles the past few starts — it’s a largely unproven, unheralded group behind him. They could really use a Corbin Burnes-type!
Thosar: It says a lot about the Brewers that, even after their crushing offseason that saw beloved members of the organization depart to other clubs, they’re still clawing with the the Cubs for the top spot in the NL Central. That’s certainly not how I would’ve drawn it up after Craig Counsell accepted a record-breaking contract to manage the Cubs, Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles, Brandon Woodruff is expected to be sidelined for the season, and All-Star closer Devin Williams is missing extended time due to a stress fracture in his back.
With all of the cards stacked against them, with everybody counting the Brewers out, guys like William Contreras (.917 OPS), Willy Adames (seven home runs) and, oh yeah, Christian Yelich (196 OPS+ in 12 games) are helping Milwaukee’s offense post the third-best wRC+ (115) in baseball, trailing only the Dodgers and the Yankees. With support on the way (Williams is due back next month), and the trade deadline presenting an opportunity to improve the pitching staff, the Brewers look more and more like the real deal.
5. Taking into account not only record but collective performance, are the Reds or the Giants the bigger disappointment thus far? Do you believe either club will climb above .500 by June?
Thosar: The Giants. They finally made some big moves at the end of the offseason, winning the Blake Snell and Matt Chapman sweepstakes, only to begin the year by reminding us to keep our expectations low. San Francisco has three starters with ERAs above 10, and one of them is Snell (11.57) after all three of his outings this year have been lackluster. Logan Webb and Jordan Hicks have been strong, and the pitching staff’s FIP (3.74) suggests there has been some bad luck involved.
Twelve of their next 15 games are against teams .500 or below. If the Giants can take advantage of that schedule, and perhaps win one series at a time, they’ll at least be hovering around .500 by Memorial Day and have a better idea of their ceiling.
Kavner: The Giants. I was more of a believer in the Reds, but they at least have the excuse of a litany of injuries and absences on the offensive side (although I certainly didn’t expect them to have the worst batting average in baseball at this point). Even in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, their expected win/loss record is close to .500, and I could see them at least getting around that mark by June.
The Giants did a whole lot more this offseason to become relevant, and yet they’re still a brutal watch. The only NL teams with a worse run differential right now are the lowly Rockies and Marlins. Their highly regarded free-agent signings to this point haven’t produced. They weren’t hitting when they were whole, and now they’re dealing with their own litany of injuries. I’m more concerned about their outlook right now.
Bonus: Top prospect and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes is set to debut for the Pirates this weekend. What’s the most memorable MLB debut you’ve covered?
Kavner: I remember James Outman and Keibert Ruiz both homering in their first major league at-bats. The debuts of Cody Bellinger and Will Smith also stand out, not necessarily because of what they did that first day specifically but because of how quickly they came out of the gates. Bellinger had seven homers in his first 16 games, while Smith had 10 homers in his first 25 games. Lastly, I recall covering the debut of a diminutive, less-heralded infield prospect named José Altuve that not a lot of people knew much about in 2011. Wonder what he’s up to now?
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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