Just over two weeks ago, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament started with a field of 68 teams, all trying to make a run in what we affectionately call “March Madness.” As we approach April 6th, it has come down to the national semifinals, better known to most as the Final Four.
This tournament has been one for the ages and has provided us with one of the most surprising results we’ve seen in its rich history. Had anyone mentioned the NC State Wolfpack as a potential Final Four candidate entering the tournament, very few would have taken them seriously. In fact, NC State was 200-1 to win the title entering the tournament. That is tied for the fifth-longest pre-tournament championship odds of any Final Four team since 2010.
Highest Pre-Tournament Championship Odds Among Teams to Make Final Four
Since 2010
- 2018 Loyola-Chicago: 380-1
- 2011 VCU: 300-1
- 2017 South Carolina: 280-1
- 2016 Syracuse: 275-1
- 2024 NC State: 200-1
- 2023 Florida Atlantic: 200-1
- 2011 Butler: 200-1
UConn, NC State cause sportsbooks to lose big: ‘We got smoked’
FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into the best betting trends for the two big games, as well as overview how historic this tournament has been from a betting perspective — both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU).
Let’s jump into the fun and, hopefully, make you a few dollars along the way.
Underdogs barely cover in the Final Four
No matter what time frame you look at, underdogs cover the spread in the Final Four — but just barely. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, they are 39-36-1 ATS (52%) and eclipsed the 50% barrier in more recent time frames, as shown below.
- Since 2017, underdogs are 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the Final Four
- Since 2011, underdogs are 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) in the Final Four
- Since 2006, underdogs are 17-16-1 ATS (51.5%) in the Final Four
- Since 2001, underdogs are 22-21-1 ATS (51.2%) in the Final Four
- Since 1995, underdogs are 29-26-1 ATS (52.7%) in the Final Four
Double-digit underdogs are perfect ATS in the Final Four
Since 1985, there have only been three double-digit underdogs in the Final Four. Those teams went 3-0 ATS and 0-3 SU. Alabama is currently an 11.5-point underdog against the reigning champions, tied for the second-largest spread in a Final Four game since at least 1985. Gonzaga was a 14-point favorite against UCLA in 2021 — a game that resulted in Jalen Suggs hitting a three-point buzzer-beater to win the game for the Bulldogs. The two other instances came in 2013 when Wichita State covered as a 10-point underdog against Louisville and in 1999 when Michigan State covered as an 11.5-point underdog against Duke.
The Crimson Tide have struggled this year as underdogs, going 3-6 ATS (33.3%) and 2-7 SU (22.2%). They did, however, cover their largest spread this season, losing by three points to Tennessee as 7.5-point underdogs in December. It should also be noted that UConn has gone a whopping 27-5 ATS (84.4%) and 31-1 SU (96.9%) against nonconference opponents over the last two seasons. Among those 32 games, the Huskies were favorites of 20 or fewer a staggering 21 times and went 20-1 ATS and SU (95.2%).
Bet on either of the two Final Four favorites to win it all
UConn and Purdue are both favored in their respective Final Four matchups, and the recent data says that one of them will win the national championship. In 16 of the last 19 Final Fours, one of the two favorites entering the semifinals went on to win the national title. The lone exceptions came in 2008 (Kansas was a three-point underdog in the Final Four), 2011 (UConn was a 2.5-point underdog in the Final Four) and 2014 (UConn was a 6.5-point underdog in the Final Four).
NC State is currently a 9.5-point underdog against Purdue, while Alabama is an 11.5-point underdog as mentioned above. Both spreads rank in the top-five largest spreads for a Final Four game since 1985:
Largest Spreads in Final Four Game
Since 1985
- 2021: Gonzaga (-14) vs UCLA
- 2024: UConn (-11.5) vs Alabama
- 1999: Duke (-11.5) vs Michigan State
- 2013: Louisville (-10) vs Wichita State
- 2024: Purdue (-9.5) vs NC State
- 2016: UNC (-9.5) vs Syracuse
- 1991: UNLV (-9.5) vs Duke
Coaching experience matters, or does it?
In the Purdue vs. NC State matchup, both Matt Painter and Kevin Keatts will be making their coaching debuts in the Final Four. However, in the other matchup, this will be Dan Hurley’s second trip to the Final Four, having taken UConn there last year as well. On the other side, this will be Nate Oats’ first Final Four appearance.
Forty-six head coaches have made their Final Four debut against a coach who has been there before since seeding began. The coach making his debut is surprisingly 25-20-1 ATS (55.6%) and 21-25 SU (45.7%). Overall, however, coaches with more Final Four experience against a coach with less experience in the semifinals are 37-35-1 ATS (51.4%) and 42-31 SU (57.5%) since 1979.
Regardless of which coaches get the victory this Saturday, what can’t be undermined is how dominant Hurley and Painter have been in the NCAA Tournament throughout their head-coaching careers. Among coaches with a minimum 15 NCAA Tournament game appearances, both rank in the top 10 in cover rate since the Big Dance expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Hurley actually has the highest cover rate of all coaches in that span, going 10-2 ATS (83.3%) with UConn and 3-1 ATS (75%) with Rhode Island. Under his guidance, UConn has covered in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games (2023-24) — two covers shy of tying the record of 12 straight set by West Virginia from 1998 to 2008.
Coaches with Highest Cover Rate in NCAA Tournament
Since 1985
Minimum 15 Games Coached
- Dan Hurley: 13-3 ATS (81.3%)
- Rollie Massimino: 12-3 ATS (80%)
- Frank Martin: 11-4 ATS (73.3%)
- Larry Brown: 12-5 ATS (70.6%)
- Brad Stevens: 12-5 ATS (70.6%)
- Dale Brown: 11-5-2 ATS (68.8%)
- Dana Altman: 20-11-2 ATS (64.5%)
- Matt Painter: 23-13 ATS (63.9%)
- John Beilein: 24-14-1 ATS (63.2%)
- Chris Beard: 10-6 ATS (62.5%)
Appreciate how historic this NC State run is
Not so much of a betting perspective here, but we wanted to give you context on just how incredible the Wolfpack’s run up to this point has been:
- As a No. 11 seed, NC State ties the record for the lowest seed to make the Final Four, becoming the sixth No. 11 seed to do so.
- NC State had 14 losses entering the tournament, the most of any team ever to make the Final Four.
- NC State won five games in five days in order to win the ACC Tournament; the only other D-I team to do that is 2011 UConn, which went on to win the NCAA Tournament shortly after.
- If NC State beats Purdue, they would join Butler as the only teams to make it to the title game with pre-tournament odds of 200-1 or longer (since 1979).
- Entering the tournament, Kevin Keatts was 0-4 as a head coach in the NCAA Tournament; he is now 4-4 entering the Final Four.
- With NC State’s appearance, the ACC has had at least one team in the Final Four in 27 of the last 39 NCAA Tournaments (since 1985).