Editor’s note: This is the third of a five-part series on the quarterbacks and teams best equipped to challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and potentially stop them from becoming the first NFL team in the Super Bowl era to three-peat. No. 3 on our list: C.J. Stroud and the Texans. No. 5 was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, and No. 4 was Brock Purdy and the 49ers.
The Texans stunned the NFL world.
After three consecutive seasons with four or fewer victories, they won the AFC South last year. They won a playoff game, too, trampling the Cleveland Browns in a wild-card matchup. Houston had 11 total victories to show for in a franchise-altering 2023.
With DeMeco Ryans, a finalist for 2023 Coach of the Year, and C.J. Stroud, who put together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, Houston’s upside is as high as any team in the league.
“Our future is bright,” Stroud said after the Texans’ divisional-round loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
In only Year 2 of the rebuild, C.J. Stroud & Co. are one of the Chiefs’ top challengers in the AFC.
How shocking is the Texans’ fast rebuild?
No team has garnered more hype than the Texans entering 2024 — and not just because of their breakout season last year. They haven’t rested on their laurels. Taking advantage of the financial flexibility afforded by Stroud’s rookie contract, Houston was aggressive this offseason in building its team into a Super Bowl contender.
It traded for perennial Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs and star running back Joe Mixon. It signed Pro Bowl edge rusher Danielle Hunter, standout defensive lineman Denico Autry and middle linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency.
The Texans have arguably the NFL’s top receiving trio in Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Adding Mixon and tight end Dalton Schultz, Houston has what Stroud has called a “five-headed monster.” And once Autry is in the fold — he’s suspended for the first six games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy — the Texans should have one of the NFL’s top defensive fronts.
Why Stroud and the Texans could beat the Chiefs in a potential AFC Championship Game matchup
Kansas City’s offense showed more vulnerability last season than it ever has in the Mahomes era — and Houston is equipped to take advantage.
Last year, the Chiefs offense hovered between average and below average against zone. Mahomes threw eight touchdown passes against 10 interceptions with a subpar 85.5 passer rating against zone coverage, according to Next Gen Stats (compared to 19 touchdowns and just four picks with a terrific 110.6 rating against man coverage). Superstar tight end Travis Kelce and receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown — three of the Chiefs’ top four pass-catchers — also combined for zero touchdowns against zone coverage last season, per Pro Football Focus.
Brown, who’s expected to miss a few weeks after dislocating his shoulder in the Chiefs’ preseason opener, struggled mightily against zone coverage last season with the Arizona Cardinals. His 56.1% catch rate vs. zone ranked 82nd of 93 qualified wide receivers, according to PFF. Arizona’s quarterbacks had a lowly 57.6 passer rating when targeting him in zone coverage.
The Chiefs’ struggles against zone could play into the hands of the Texans, who were in zone for 81.1% of their defensive snaps last season, per Nex Gen Stats. A zone usage rate at or more than that could give Kansas City problems.
Some of Houston’s raw numbers in zone last season weren’t great: 22nd in EPA allowed, 24th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in passing yards per game allowed. But the team ranked middle of the pack in points allowed in zone (tied for 15th, 66 points allowed), ninth in takeaways (17) and second in red-zone efficiency (18 points allowed), according to Next Gen Stats.
The Texans’ top defensive back, third-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., is also positioned to thrive against Kansas City in zone, where he had four of his five interceptions last season, according to NGS. The former LSU star allowed just a 52.0 passer rating in zone coverage as well (he allowed a 59.9 rating in man). He could take Rice, Brown or first-round rookie Xavier Worthy out of the game, forcing Mahomes to be overly reliant on Kelce.
Brock Purdy, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown have a lot to prove this year
[RELATED: Will Chiefs’ offensive burden once again fall on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce?]
Forcing the Mahomes-Kelce connection to beat you isn’t necessarily a foolproof recipe for success for the Texans — or for any other team. After all, the two future Hall of Famers have carried the Chiefs to several victories over the years. But taking away Mahomes’ other weapons increases an opponent’s odds of winning.
Offensively, the Texans can best exploit the Chiefs in 11 personnel, where they can have Diggs, Dell, Collins, Mixon and Schultz on the field together.
As explosive as Houston was last season, the offense was inconsistent against man coverage. Stroud completed just 53.7% of his passes for 934 yards and eight touchdowns against three interceptions with a 90.7 passer rating against man, according to Next Gen Stats. That compares to a 67.2% completion rate for 3,174 yards and 15 touchdowns and just two picks with a 104.1 rating against zone.
That’s why the addition of Diggs is so massive. A terrific route-runner throughout his career, Diggs shores up the Texans’ deficiencies against man coverage. Bills QB Josh Allen had a 114.7 passer rating when targeting Diggs last season against man, compared to a 94.8 rating against zone, according to Pro Football Focus.
Stefon Diggs among players under the most pressure in 2024
The Chiefs last season ranked 21st in pass defense in man coverage — not bad, but certainly below average. Against the Texans’ “five-headed monster,” subpar pass coverage can be the difference between a win and a loss.
That’s how hype can meet realized potential for Houston against Kansas City.
Five teams that can prevent a Chiefs three-peat:
- No. 1: TBD
- No. 2: TBD
- No. 3: C.J. Stroud/Texans
- No. 4: Brock Purdy/49ers
- No. 5: Jalen Hurts/Eagles
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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